DECLASSIFIED: Branden Oliver Week 6 Fantasy Outlook vs. Raiders

shabro headshotThe running back situation around the league got flipped on its head in the first five games of the 2014 season. DeMarco Murray has the most fantasy points in the league. Marshawn Lynch, Le’Veon Bell and Arian Foster are running roughshod. Meanwhile, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy are getting outperformed by the likes of Reshad Jennings and Ahmad Bradshaw. What can you do if you were relying on Montee Ball and he’s out now?

Your answer is the diminutive Branden Oliver.

oliver declassifed

Never heard of Branden Oliver? Welcome to the club. There were raving reports out of Chargers training camp calling him the next Darren Sproles because he’s a short running back who wears the same number Sproles did in San Diego and he’s tiny.

However, there’s always glowing reports of no less than two dozen rookies who are their team’s version of somebody and it usually doesn’t add up to much. This past Sunday, Darren Sproles wished he were Branden Oliver.

The Chargers had a busted-up backfield with Ryan Matthews hurt for weeks (as per usual), Danny Woodhead out for the year, and Donald Brown ended up with a concussion. Branden Oliver came onto the scene and went buck-wild against the N0. 1 rush defense in the league.

Oliver received just less than half of the Charger’s carries against the Jets and still ran for 114 rushing yards and a rushing TD. He caught four balls for 68 receiving yards and a receiving TD to boot. The kid can ball.

Don’t call Branden Oliver a Darren Sproles-clone to his face. He points out to everyone that he’s 15 pounds heavier than Sproles and it showed on Sunday. Oliver is all of 5’7″ and 205 lbs soaking wet but he plays much bigger.

Oliver was undrafted out of Buffalo despite being the school’s all-time leading rusher. He’s a fun player to watch but more importantly he’s a great pickup for week 6. He’s still available in about 80% of leagues but he’s going fast so hurry up and get your waiver claim in quick! We also like Oliver this week in daily leagues as a potential value play.

Lets take a look at the positives and negatives with Branden Oliver and look at his value in Week 6 versus the Raiders.

Branden_Oliver_TD_Run
Here’s a look at Oliver’s touchdown run in week 5. Phillip Rivers saw a weakness in the Jets 3 man front in this play and it looked like he called Oliver in. The offensive line got two excellent double teams and Oliver burst through the hole provided.

Positives

– Vision: For as short as he is, Oliver has good vision and is especially good at spotting holes inside and he bursts through those holes quickly. He’s very patient waiting for blocks to develop and he’s hard to see behind the a very, very tall Chargers offensive line.

– Running and Receiving Ability/Style: Oliver has crazy leverage in the run game and he is a physical runner. He almost never goes down on first contact. He’s a good receiver and is dangerous in the open field with the ball in his hands as shown by his 50-yard catch and run in the second quarter.

– Pass Blocking: Typically he’s a stout pass protector for his size. He did whiff on a rush by Calvin Pace that ended in a Phillip Rivers sack; D.J. Fluker didn’t help him at all. He’s not going to win any awards for his pass pro but you won’t see a red light coming on saying he’s getting a screen whenever he’s in on third down.

– Good Quarterback Play: It really helps the Chargers passing game that defenses are so fearful of Phillip Rivers torching them. Teams absolutely cannot stack the box to stop the run. Rivers has the vision to know when to check out of a pass and let Oliver exploit a front seven.

– Offensive Line: San Diego Chargers first-year offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris should get a medal for what he is getting out of this unit, plus his name sounds like that of a European Olympian. The Chargers lost long time stalwart at center, Nick Hardwick early on. Doug Legursky, who was barely average to begin with, is out for the year as well. D.J. Fluker went out with an ankle injury and yet they still pounded the rock.

– The Matchup: Oliver tore up the Jets who have a vicious front four and now he goes up against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Raiders have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs this year. All 5’7″ of Oliver might truck right over Lamarr Woodley’s washed up self (he has 3 tackles and 0 sacks all year).

Negatives

– Size: He’s small. There’s no getting around it. He’s got a thick, powerful lower body that allows him to break tackles. But can he keep it up in the NFL when a team has a week to game plan against him? Can he be durable after a couple Justin Tuck hits? I think so, but you never know when the player is shorter than an 8th grader.

– Ryan Mathews/Donald Brown: Not a problem this week. Even if Donald Brown comes back from his injury to the brain concussion, head coach Mike McCoy likely sticks with the hot hand. In a few weeks when the glass man Ryan Mathews comes back, Oliver could have his carries significantly eaten in to, but he’ll still operate in the Danny Woodhead role moving forward, which should yield decent, if sporadic, production -especially in PPR.

– Raiders Coaching Change: Dennis Allen got nothing out of this squad. Even with the lack of talent (thanks for drafting Menelik Watson over Honey Badger, Reggie) this team should’ve been much more competitive. Teams have a propensity to show up more competitive after a coaching change. Even more so when they’ve had a bye-week to “bury the football” symbolizing the first four games of the season with a cast member from The Sopranos interim HC Tony Sparano. A lot of players are trying to put up good tape because they may find themselves as free agents after this season when Jon Gruden or whoever comes into this circus cleans house.

DECLASSIFIED: Branden Oliver’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook:

Even if Donald Brown comes back, Oliver is going to get the lion’s share of the carries. He has another week to work with the offensive line, Phillip Rivers and the rest of the offense. The Raiders defense leaks like a sieve and if the Chargers throw for 3 or 4 touchdowns on them early, McCoy might grind out the game the rest of the way on the ground. However, temper your expectations just a little. It would be unrealistic to expect Oliver to exceed or maybe even meet his big game from last week. All factors considered, I would expect Oliver to run for 90 yards, catch three passes for about 40 yards and score one receiving touchdown.

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