DECLASSIFIED: Dan Herron Week 14 Fantasy Outlook vs. Cleveland Browns

shabro headshotMost of RosterWatch Nation is in the fantasy playoff hunt. Some of you are already in the playoffs. Some of you are out of the race but want to play spoiler against your smartass co-worker or your overly arrogant college buddy. No matter what role you’re playing this week, chances are you need a running back, whether in the flex or as your RB2. Running backs that could be limited or down this week include Isaiah Crowell, Bobby Rainey, Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings, DeAngelo Williams, Justin Forsett and Arian Foster.


It’s Week 14. Pickings are slim, but help is on the way.

Declassified Herron

Ohio State running backs Beanie Wells and Carlos Hyde got a lot of hype as first and second-round draft picks. And now look, Wells is out of the league now and Hyde is stuck behind the ageless Frank Gore who is still somehow fighting off Father Time. One former Buckeye who has gotten limited press over the last couple of years is Daniel “Boom” Herron.

Herron was a freshman running back at that very same college in Ohio playing with the likes of Terrelle Pryor, Mike Adams, Cameron Heyward, and DeVier Posey. Boom landed himself in some trouble in the notorious memorabilia scandal and got suspended for a chunk of games. This definitely had at least a small impact on his draft status – but there were also questions about his durability and ceiling.

Herron got selected in the 6th round by the Cincinnati Bengals but didn’t make the Bengals final roster out of training camp. He bounced on and off the 53 in 2012. Herron couldn’t make the active roster in 2012 and 2013 because of the law firm BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Giovani Bernard, and mostly Cedric Peerman. Herron battled Peerman for the last running back spot two years in a row – and Peerman won both times, likely due to Marvin Lewis and Hue Jackson’s familiarity with Peerman as well as the fact that he’s a key, reliable special teamer. The Colts picked up Herron late in 2013 and he was largely a non-factor until hard-running, oft-injured Ahmad Bradshaw went down for the year on injured reserve.

Trent Richardson, who the Colts traded a valuable first round pick for, has averaged 3.3 yards per carry (3rd worst in the league among running backs with at least 100 carries). T Rich is averaging 2.37 yards per carry over the last 3 games and gained all of two yards on six carries against the Patriots. The Patriots have a much-improved offense, but they’ve given up the 13th most fantasy points to running backs this year. Basically I’m saying Trent Richardson’s play is hot garbage. Like you couldn’t tell with your own eyes.

In comparison, Boom Herron has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 42 rushing attempts so far this year. Over the last two weeks, Herron is averaging a staggering 7.65 yards per carry over against the Jaguars and Redskins. The Jags have been getting gashed by the run but the Redskins have actually given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. Running on that defense has not been fun and games.

Boom Herron is not going to be a fantasy (or a real-life) RB1 this year and probably won’t be next year or the next one after that. For fantasy, I think he’s a solid RB2 or FLEX play in Week 14, and, in fact, moving forward. If your fantasy playoffs are in Weeks 15 and 16, he’s got favorable matchups against Houston and Dallas in those weeks. Surprisingly, he’s still available in 44% of leagues so if you don’t already have him go grab him (especially if you have a guy like Jonas Gray or Bishop Sankey). If you’re an Andre Ellington, Charles Sims, or Doug Martin owner Herron looks like a better bet than all three of those guys.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Boom Herron while considering his fantasy value in Week 14 versus the Cleveland Browns.

BoomHerron_8YDRUN_PocketView
Not a highlight reel play, but Boom shows why he has his nickname on this run. The hole quickly closes but Herron bursts his way through and bullies his way through the traffic of five defenders to gain 8 on the play. Bryce Brown dreams at night about running how Boom Herron runs.

Positives

– Matchup: The Browns aren’t exactly as porous against the run as the Raiders or Jaguars but they can be run on. Currently, Cleveland is giving up the 17th most fantasy points in the league to running backs. Alfred Blue ran on them for 156 yards. Old Man River Fred Jackson gained 97 all-purpose yards against them, presumably while fumbling around for his false teeth and telling kids to get the hell of his lawn. I feel like the Browns front-seven isn’t good enough to shut down Herron.

– Running Style: This kid has earned his nickname and then some. He is a violent runner that plays with a chip on his shoulder. At the 2013 Senior Bowl, RosterWatch thought a good comparison for him was a poor man’s Tiki Barber meets a poor man’s Vick Ballard. For a guy his size, he breaks some serious tackles. Contact is punishment and he loves to punish defenses. One guy he reminds me of (without as much natural ability and explosiveness) is Larry Johnson. Larry ran the same way but was shiftier. He never goes down on first contact and he can be slippery

– Vision: You might have noticed a running theme in my articles this year, but I like backs with great vision that can patiently wait for blocks to develop. You can give Trent Richardson a hole the size of a Mack truck and somehow he’ll get you all of 2 ½ yards. Herron hits the hole with authority and will cut it back outside in a heartbeat, something he’s clearly worked hard on in the NFL. I also like his ability to see running lanes on the perimeter, turn the corner and bounce it outside.

– Quarterback Play: This Andrew Luck fellow I’ve been hearing about sounds like a nice young man and a sick player despite a disgusting neck beard. In seriousness, though, he’s got a passer rating of 103.00 right now and as is the case with most franchise quarterbacks, this team would be a dumpster fire without him. The Colts have 495 passing attempts (good for 1st in the league) and Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton seems to have conceded that the offensive game plan must not involve any of his own ideas revolve around the pass. That being said, Luck airing it out opens space up for Herron to run in and catch passes underneath.

– Good Receiver: He’s got good hands and he can run simple routes. He’s not a Le’Veon Bell who’s going to net you 100 yards receiving but he’ll get a few looks.

BoomHerron_Fumbles
Here’s where those ball control issues pop up. Boom carries the ball like a loaf of bread after catching it and Redskins linebacker Perry Riley knocks it right out. One more of these and he’ll be put on the pine pony.

Negatives

– Inconsistency/Time-Share/Vulturing: All three of these problems can basically be lumped together. His inconsistency is not really his fault. He’s been competing for a spot in the backfield and it was hard to justify letting him steal carries from Ahmad Bradshaw when Bradshaw was running so effectively. Now he’s still being forced to share time with The Bust Formerly Known as TRich and head coach Chuck Pagano has indicated that won’t change. I have to think the coaching staff is: A) Not wanting to bench a running back that the front office gave up a 2014 first-rounder for and, B) Afraid of getting him too banged up before the playoffs. Finally, Pep Hamilton might assist Richardson in pulling an “Asiata” by letting the slug in the backfield get the red-zone carries instead of the good runner. This may not happen at all, however, since that would necessitate Richardson gaining positive yardage.

– Size/Athleticism: I don’t want to make too big of a deal about this because he’s almost the same size as DeMarco Murray (about 2 inches shorter) but he doesn’t have a very big frame at 5’10” and 215 lbs. He just doesn’t have the ideal size you want in a guy who runs as hard as he does – and in seven games played has more hits on him than Clark Griswold’s house has lights. (Cousin Eddie reminds you that the shitter’s full, by the way.) He’s also a little limited athletically. He doesn’t have great explosiveness. He doesn’t have burning long speed. He’s not really going to wow you, but he does all the little things well.

– Ball Control: He’s fumbled the ball twice in two weeks and lost both fumbles. Yikes. If he was on a team that had more depth and talent at running back he would’ve been benched already, but the Colts don’t have much of a choice. He has got to get better about not putting the ball on the ground. Thankfully the Browns are fifth-worst in the league with only seven forced fumbles on the year.

– Offensive Line: The tackles on this team are decent. Left tackle Anthony Costanzo is the best linemen of the bunch and Gosder Cherilus is a fat ass mediocre. The line has been better at run blocking than it has in pass protection but I wouldn’t call this group maulers. (Way to take Kyle Long when you had the chance, Grigson.) Luck would be on pace to break the record for sacks if not for his athleticism and escapability. The interior of this line is a mess. OG Hugh Thornton might be back this week but I don’t see any drastic improvement. The only silver lining is getting Dwayne Allen back who will at least block better than Coby Fleener.

DECLASSIFIED: Boom Herron’s Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

I like Boom Herron’s value in these last few weeks of the season. I don’t see him as a guy that is going to have a crazy game like a Latavius Murray or Tre Mason, but I don’t think he’s going to lay an egg for you either. I really like his value in daily leagues as a cheaper option. I think he has limited dynasty value as the Colts are going to have to go to free agency or the draft for a featured back. Plus, Vick Ballard is still on the roster.

All factors considered, I would expect Herron to grind out about 80 yards on the ground and run or catch one in the end zone.

10 Comments

  1. I need to start one of these QB’s: Wilson, Sanchez or Kaepernick?
    Need one WR and a FLEX: Evans, Stills, Landry, Tre Mason or LaFell?
    TE-Greg Olsen is Questionable, Jordan Reed-WAS is available, should I pick up Reed?

    1. Anthony-

      -It’s going to be close between Kaepernick and Wilson in our final WK 14 Rankings. As of now, I recommend rolling with Kaepernick in a must-win game against Oakland. I’m expecting Seattle to try and ball control it with Lynch to keep Philly’s offense off of the field, and to let their defense rest.

      -Tre Mason NO DOUBT!!!! + we’ll go with our rankings and roll with your stud Mike Evans because of his immense redzone potential- he’s going to get targets and he has high upside if things shake out in his favor even though the matchup is tough- it’s why he’s ranked just slightly ahead of the other guys you mention in our rankings- we have Evans as a middle WR2, and all of those guys as low-end WR2s- very close nonetheless. There is a strong argument for Landry being the safest play (especially in a PPR), and there is a reasonable argument for Stills at home against a great matchup with the best QB of the bunch throwing to him. If you get gun shy on Evan’s matchup- we’d make a choice between Stills and Landry. Again, Landry is the safe play- and in this case Stills would be the higher upside play with a bit more bust potential. LaFell is a great commodity, and that’s quite the WR corps you have put together- unfortunately you have to bench somebody!

      -We believe Olsen will play- but Reed is an interesting flier at this point in the season- if you have somebody really crappy to drop- we’d prob do it to have some TE insurance. That said, we aren’t going to lose too much sleep if we couldn’t land Reed. If Kyle Rudolph or Jordan Cameron are on your waiver wire, we would recommend picking either of them up as well. Rudolph has an amazing TE matchup this week at home- and he’s been heating up lately.

      Good Luck!

  2. Thanks Byron!
    My #1 WR to go along with the above mentiond WR corps is Antonio Brown.
    Here’s my full squard: PPR league
    QB’s: Wilson (Starting), Kaepernick and Sanchez
    RB’s: Lacy, Lynch (RB1, RB2), Mason (Flex), Crowell and Lat Murray
    WR’s: A.Brown, Stills (WR1 WR2) Evans, Lafell and Watkins
    TE’s: Olsen (No backup)
    PK: Parkey (No backup)
    Def: Texans (No backup)
    I’m leaning on starting Wilson and Stills over Kaepernick and Evans. But that could still change by Sunday.

    These players are on waivers: WR’s: Landry and Bailey TE’s: Reed and Rudolph
    Would you pickup either one of these TE’s for depth or even start if Olsen is Questionable-if yes who do I drop?
    I really want to have that TE insurance. Should I drop Sanchez?
    Would you pickup either Landry or Bailey and drop either Lafell or Watkins?or stay put with my current WR’s?

    Thanks again Byron!!!!!!!

  3. 1 pt ppr, should I start TY Hilton, or Odell Beckem? Thanks for your help

    1. I’d go with Beckham.

  4. Post By TheBallerFormerlyKnownAs

    1st round Playoffs 6pt per TD
    I had Mettenger berger in last week and he went down, not sure about his health this week. Should I stay with his match up or one of the others below? Thanks for your help
    Z. Metternberger vs NYG
    B. Hoyer vs Colts
    S. Hill vs @WAS
    K.Orton vs @DEN
    T. Bridgewater
    C.McCoy vs STL

    1. I like Hill this week.

      1. Post By TheBallerFormerlyKnownAs

        Right on, I appreciate it.

  5. Long time lurker first time poster. 14 team league + injuries has me choosing in between Woods, Moncrief, Garçon and N. Washington for my WR3. Thoughts with the recent team injuries?

    1. I’m going with Washington here, especially in PPR. He’s going to rack up targets as TEN’s number one option this week.

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