DECLASSIFIED: Jarvis Landry Week 12 Fantasy Outlook vs. Denver Broncos

shabro headshotFormer LSU Tiger and rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has gotten a ton of attention for his splash-play ability that’s been highlighted with the New York Giants (even if his quarterback looks like a soup sandwich trying to quickly end his ten-year run as the Giants franchise player). Much has been made about whether or not Beckham’s previous quarterback, Zach Mettenberger, will be the answer for Ken Whisenhunt’s struggling Tennessee Titans offense. Jeremy Hill looks like he’s going to be a staple in the Cincinnati Bengals offense moving forward. Former Tigers running back Alfred Blue has become a fantasy darling after Arian Foster was sidelined with yet another injury.

One LSU alum getting minimal attention that should be looked at more closely is rookie wide receiver Jarvis Landry.

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Jarvis Landry was a major component of the Tigers offense, but he’s getting severely overlooked by NFL fans right now. Part of this stems from an amazing rookie wide receiver class consisting of Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Beckham, Mike Evans, John Brown, Donte Moncrief, Martavis Bryant, Jordan Matthews and Brandin Cooks among others. Landry has been averaging five receptions a game since week 5. He hasn’t officially surpassed Brian Hartline on the depth chart but he’s seeing increased playing time due to the Dolphins increased use of 11 personnel (3 wide receiver sets).

Landry is a classic possession wide receiver. He’s not an explosive-play, down-the-field threat like Beckham. However, he’s a gritty, tough receiver who can catch balls outside the hash marks and also is fearless going across the middle. Because of the fact that he lacks explosive speed but he has other excellent attributes, he is most often compared to Anquan Boldin. I’ve also seen comparisons to Michael Crabtree and Andre Roberts. I can see the similarities to all three players given his ability and his style of play. Some of you are going to think I’m nuts but the player he most reminds me of is Chad (Ochocinco) Johnson. I don’t think he has the long speed that Johnson had due to his height but his body control and ability to snatch contested balls looks almost identical on tape.

Landry may not be a big-time deep threat, but he benefits from having one of the best deep threats in the NFL, Mike Wallace, playing in the same wide receiver corps. He’s going to be the guy that Ryan Tannehill looks to when he needs 8 yards to move the sticks. Landry is one of those receivers that’s probably never going to make the highlight reel every week but he’ll be old faithful for you as a flex player or WR3 in PPR leagues. He looks like a solid dynasty option at this point in time.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Jarvis Landry while considering his fantasy value in Week 12 versus the Denver Broncos.

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Landry runs a quick route and stretches to get the ball in the end zone. Officials ruled he had crossed the plane. Landry may not be a physical marvel but he is relentless!

Positives

– Route Running: So quick in and out of his breaks. He’s just a really smooth route-runner that makes it look natural. For a rookie receiver, he’s excellent at selling routes. He can run every route; I think that ability comes from working under LSU offensive coordinator Cam Cameron’s pro style offense.

– Hands: Landry has strong hands and usually has excellent ball control. I think his return fumbles are a bit of an anomaly as the Dolphins have had tons of special teams blunders. He attacks the ball and he’ll snatch it away from defenders. He has no issues catching the ball in traffic. So he’s not a deep threat but he goes across the middle and is a great hands catcher; so basically – he’s the opposite of Mike Wallace.

– Awareness/Toughness: Both of these qualities are not measurable but Landry has both in copious amounts. He’s an extremely smart and crafty player. He has a great understanding of what is happening on the field. Landry gets himself open partially due to his football intelligence and knowledge of how to run through zone coverage. The kid is wise beyond his years. As RosterWatch loudmouth megamind Alex Dunlap noted, Landry is a “junkyard dog.” He’s so gritty and he plays like a man possessed. He can rack up some YAC for you because of his lateral agility and the fact that he refuses to go down on first contact.

– Versatility: He can line up outside, in the slot, or in bunch formations. He also returns punts and kicks. If you’re in a league that awards points for kick and punt return yardage he’s got added value, though he’s unlikely to run one back for a touchdown. He’s averaging over 31 yards per return.

– Blocking: He’s a tough and willing blocker. He’s good enough to be left on the field on running downs. He’ll dig out a safety.

– Quarterback Play: Ryan Tannehill has a habit of up-and-down play but seems to have leveled out after the last couple weeks. He played well even when he was under siege from a nasty Buffalo Bills pass rush. He appears to look at Landry as his outlet receiver and I think that bodes well for the former Tiger’s fantasy value moving forward. He’s going to have to throw more underneath to Landry due to the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Branden Albert.

Negatives

– Size/Limited Measurables: Not how you would build a prototypical receiver. He’s 5’10”, 205 lbs. A lot of scouts thought he needed to bulk up his frame but he seems to be able to hold up so far to the punishment from NFL defenders. The biggest problem with his size is his lack of length. He’s quick but he doesn’t have the long legs to sprint down the field. HIs 4.77 40-yard dash was cringe-worthy but 40 times don’t kill careers at all. Also, per RosterWatch, he improved on his disastrous time at the combine with a 4.51-second dash at LSU pro day. His lack of deep speed limits what he can do but players like Crabtree, Boldin, and Hines Ward have carved out great careers with average speed. Landry doesn’t have good leaping ability for jump balls, he is good at high pointing the ball, though.

– Role in the Offense: He passed Brandon Gibson as the third wide receiver early in the season and he is getting more targets than Brian Hartline. However, he’s still at best the second wide receiver in an offense that has been up and down this season. The second wide receiver on the Lions or Broncos is an easy fantasy starter; on the Dolphins… not so much. In his defense, he’s been absolutely reliable for the last 3 weeks.

– Matchup: The Broncos defense is not exactly the Steel Curtain, but they can get after the quarterback (they’re 8th in the league in sacks). Denver has allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They’re not as bad as the Raiders but you can move the ball on them. Kenny Britt had four catches for 128 yards and a touchdown against them in week 11. Mike Wallace is probably going to draw Aqib Talib or Chris Harris. With Landry lining up mostly in the slot he will get covered by Bradley Roby. Roby is a rookie but he’s no slouch.

DECLASSIFIED: Jarvis Landry’s Week 12 Fantasy Outlook

Landry is not the most tantalizing player but he gets the job done. He could be a good pickup this week as a flex play or maybe as a very low-end WR2 if you’re an Antonio Brown or Kelvin Benjamin owner, who are both on bye. His value in PPR leagues is much higher than in traditional scoring leagues. If you’re in a league that counts kick and punt return yardage he’s money. He’s available in 84% of leagues.

All factors considered, I think Landry’s floor is five receptions for about 50 yards. He’ll also probably gain about 60-75 return yards. I think he’s going to be a little hard pressed for a touchdown since the game is in Denver.

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