Steve Smith Sr. Fantasy Performances in Prime-Time Games and Coming Off Bye

We never claimed that RosterWatch Nation wasn’t maniacal.

At the constant pestering of RW Nation member minionhunter, we have gathered the data he has bugged the hell out of us about requested in this week’s comments sections at RosterWatch.com. He had a sneaky feeling that the senior citizen liked to unleash his biggest monster games under the lights and with a prime-time audience. He also had a feeling that Smith, over his career, has been good coming off bye weeks.

After doing the research, we see minionhunter was on to something, but maybe not the exact thing he thought. So, thanks to one more maniacal member of our winning fantasy community, here is everything you ever wanted to know and more about Steve Smith Sr.’s fantasy performances in prime-time, and coming off byes…

Two phenomenons, that when mixed together historically (as is the case in Week 12 – Smith plays Monday night while also coming off bye), has indeed been known to result in a monster.

Steve Smith Sr. in Prime-Time Games

2003

Week 13 – Sunday Night Football at Atlanta – 13 targets, 7 receptions, 66 yards

2004

Week 1 – Monday Night Football vs. Green Bay – 9 targets, 6 receptions, 60 yards

2005

Week 5 – Monday Night Football at Green Bay – 4 targets, 2 receptions, 12 yards

2006

Week 8 – Sunday Night Football vs. Dallas – 9 targets, 6 receptions, 55 yards and 1 rush for 24 yards and a TD

Week 10 – Monday Night Football at Tampa Bay – 12 targets, 8 receptions, 149 yards, 1 TD

Week 13 Monday Night Football at Philadelphia – 5 targets, 4 receptions, 54 yards, 1 TD

2007

none

2008

Week 13 – Monday Night Football vs. Tampa Bay – 9 targets, 9 receptions, 119 yards, 1 TD

Week 15 – Sunday Night Football at New York Giants – 6 targets, 3 receptions, 47 yards, 2 rushes for 24 yards

2009

Week 3 – Monday Night Football vs. Dallas – 7 targets, 4 receptions, 38 yards

Week 11 – Thursday Night Football vs. Miami – 15 targets, 7 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD

Week 14 – Sunday Night Football vs. Minnesota – 14 targets, 9 receptions, 157 yards, 1 TD

2010

Week 16 – Thursday Night Football at Pittsburgh – 8 targets, 3 receptions, 17 yards

2011

none

2012

Week 3 – Thursday Night Football vs. New York Giants – 4 targets, 4 receptions, 84 yards

Week 6 – Sunday Night Football vs. Dallas – 9 targets, 7 receptions, 83 yards

Week 12 – Monday Night Football at Philadelphia – 7 targets, 4 receptions, 60 yards

2013

Week 7 – Thursday Night Football at Tampa Bay – 7 targets, 4 receptions, 42 yards

Week 11 – Monday Night Football at New England – 6 targets, 4 receptions, 62 yards

Week 15 – Sunday Night Football at New Orleans – 2 targets, 1 receptions, 44 yards

2014

Week 2 – Thursday Night Football vs. Pittsburgh – 10 targets, 6 receptions, 71 yards

Week 9 – Sunday Night Football at Pittsburgh – 8 targets, 5 receptions, 36 yards

Takeaways

– Smith Sr. has never scored multiple touchdowns in a prime-time game during his career.

– Smith Sr. has not scored a touchdown in a prime-time game since Week 14 of the 2009 season.

– Smith Sr. averages 8.2 targets per game, 5.3 receptions, 69.6 yards and .3 touchdowns per game in prime-time matchups over his career, averaging 8.76 points per game in standard and 14.06 points in PPR.

– Smith Sr.’s averages in prime-time contests are not supported by his median scoring of 6.85 ppg in standard leagues and 12.3 ppg in PPR.

– In eight career Monday Night performances, Smith Sr. has averaged 69.25 yards on 7.38 targets for a TD 37.5% of the time and has a 6.1-point median in standard scoring and an 11.1 median in PPR.

– Smith Sr.’s “worst” prime-time games at night have been Thursdays where he’s never eclipsed 87 yards and only scores at a 20 percent clip, but interestingly, his median scoring on Thursday has been a serviceable 7.1 in standard leagues, which is higher than his 6.85 career prime-time median.

. . .

Steve Smith Sr. Coming off of BYE weeks

2003 Week 4 (ATL) – 5 receptions, 47 yards
2004 Week 4 (ATL) – DNP
2005 Week 8 (MIN) – 11 receptions, 201 yards, 1 TD
2006 Week 10 (TB – Monday Night) – 8 receptions, 149 yards, 1 TD
2007 Week 8 (IND) – 2 receptions, 18 yards
2008 Week 10 (OAK) – 1 reception, 9 yards
2009 Week 5 (WAS) – 5 receptions, 65 yards
2010 Week 7 (SF) – 4 receptions, 50 yards
2011 Week 10 (TEN) – 5 receptions, 33 yards
2012 Week 7 (DAL – Sunday Night) – 7 receptions, 83 yards
2013 Week 6 (ARI) 4 receptions, 60 yards

Takeaways

– In two prime-time games in his career coming off of bye weeks, Smith Sr. averages a monstrous 14.6 fantasy ppg in standard leagues and 22.1 in PPR.

– Unfortunately, Smith Sr. has not scored a touchdown in a week coming off of bye since Week 10 of 2006.

– Overall, Smith Sr. averages 7.15 ppg in standard and 13.55 ppg in PPR in weeks coming of bye through his career with a 5.5 ppg median in standard and a 9.85 ppg median in PPR.

– Since 2007, Smith Sr. only averages 4.54 ppg in standard coming off of bye.

3 Comments

  1. Thanks guys! I was on my way to post the thanks in the other article after hearing the show, but amazingly there is an article!

    Amazing! Incredible! Thank you! You are making my first ever season of FF something special. You all are the best!

    Fortunately I can think about starting Smith Sr, Torrey Smith, or Sammy Watkins till Monday.

  2. Career vs Saints (from Ravens site, then additional research)
    100 receptions on 159 targets for 1493 yards and 10 TD in 23 games (plus 4 rushes of 20, 21T, 22, and 1 yard, so total of 11 career TD vs NO) – they have been the team he has been most successful against over his career

    Average 65 yards, 4 receptions, 0.4 TD catching 65% of his targets vs. the Saints

    This year vs. NFC south teams 15 receptions 316 yards and 3 TD

    Joe has said that he hopes that they can get him another big game vs. the NFC south.

  3. Thanks roster watch! Smith Sr got me 14 points tonight, you guys are uncanny! It wasn’t even a choice to start him over Watkins. I can’t wait for the show this weekend, but I’ll have declassified and the finest match-ups to tide me over till then.

    Fantasy Gold!

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