Trapasso’s Finest Fantasy Matchups – Week 2

Football is in full swing. Life is fantastic again. Week 2 is here. Let’s get to it…

Steve Smith and Torrey Smith vs. Steelers secondary

torrey smithAn 80-yard touchdown with less than six minutes to play significantly boosted Steve Smith’s statistics in Week 1, but teammate Torrey Smith didn’t have an especially encouraging game (three catches, 50 yards) and the Steelers defense, after a dominating first half, went M.I.A. in the second against the Josh Gordon and Ben Tate-less Browns, nearly resulting in what would have been a crushing divisional defeat.

So something has to give tonight. Will the Smith’s be able to stretch the field and make a few plays downfield? They probably should. No one was expecting it, but consider this regarding tonight’s AFC North battle; legendary Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau was quoted after the win over the Browns saying the up-tempo, no-huddle attacks had Pittsburgh’s D “rattled.” Per Football Outsiders pace statistics, the Ravens were the most up-tempo team in football on opening weekend, calling a play every 20.34 seconds.

As usual, this will be a gritty, down-to-the-wire affair, but expect Baltimore’s Smith duo to both have solid fantasy performances.

The Steelers are the 7th-worst WR matchup of Week 2 per the RosterWatch Matchup Tool.

AMAZING PREDICTION

Steve Smith – 6 catches, 85 yards
Torrey Smith – 5 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD

…

Tom Brady vs. Minnesota Vikings defense

tom bradyWeek 1 showed us a Tom Brady we’ve never (or rarely) seen before. He was pressured a whopping 15 times (not a super-high percentage relative to his 61 dropbacks, but he was pressured quickly), completed less than 52 percent of his passes and his team was held scoreless in the second half en route to a rather embarrassing 33-20 loss to the Dolphins in Miami.

What should we expect in Week 2? Well, there have been a few rough stretches for Brady since 2010, and whenever he’s not been masterful on the field, the masses tend to absolutely freak out. In every past case of hysteria, Brady has rebounded to play like one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

While I don’t think Brady is going to stay at the bottom of the NFL’s completion percentage statistic — no way — the deterioration of his accuracy over the past three years is concerning.

Let me explain.

Pro Football Focus has a fabulous metric known as “Accuracy Percentage,” (which is about 50 times better than completion percentage because it discounts throwaways, drops and passes in which a quarterback is hit as he threw the football) to find how “truly” accurate a signal-caller is.

In 2010, Brady led the league with an AP of 77.9, a studly number for you non-geeks in the room. In 2011, his figure dropped to 74.1, good for 7th in the NFL. In 2012, Brady’s AP was 74.8, 10th in the league. Last year, he finished 13th among QBs with an AP of 72.4.

As you can probably imagine, his AP wasn’t very good in Week 1’s loss to the Dolphins. It was 56.6, football’s lowest percentage.

That gradual dip in accuracy is undoubtedly worth noting and monitoring as the season progresses. If Brady’s not completing as many passes, he’s not going to be racking up as many fantasy points. The Vikings defensive line is reasonably talented and is coached by Mike Zimmer, arguably one of the best front seven teachers in all of football.

Brady should, at some point, piece together stellar performances and move back into the upper echelon of quarterbacks, but I don’t think it happens this week. Playing on the road against the Vikings isn’t the most cozy matchup after the beating he took against the Dolphins.

Minnesota is the 19th-best QB matchup of Week 2 per the RosterWatch Matchup Tool.

AMAZING PREDICTION

Tom Brady: 26-of-47, 275 yards, 1TD, 1INT, 3 sacks

…

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell vs. Panthers front seven

reggie bush DETThis may be the most intriguing head-to-head matchup of Week 2. The Detroit Lions easily dispatched the Giants at home on Monday Night Football in Week 1, but Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined for 66 yards on 24 carries — not good. Yes, Bell scored a touchdown, but their ground-game efforts were rather poor. Bush salvaged his fantasy evening with six grabs for 49 yards, while Bell only caught pass for five yards.

The Panthers defensive front seven is one of the finest in football, so don’t expect much improvement from either Lions running back on the ground.

However, I expect Matthew Stafford to be under duress often, which should lead to an abundance of sack-avoiding checkdowns. I really think HC Jim Caldwell has hammered the phrase “DON’T THROW INTO TRIPLE COVERAGE WHEN YOU’RE PRESSURED” into Stafford’s head, as extremely ill-advised interceptions have hindered Stafford’s development and held the super-talented Lions back.

Carolina is the third-worst RB matchup for Week 2 per the RosterWatch Matchup Tool.

AMAZING PREDICTION

Reggie Bush: 8 carries, 35 yards, 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
Joique Bell: 13 carries, 47 yards, 3 catches, 37 yards

…

Packers wide receivers vs. Jets secondary

JordyNelsonQuote the research of Erik Frenz here, “the last time the Jets faced the Packers, Aaron Rodgers went 15-for-34 for 170 yards and a 59.7 rating. Interesting. That game was in 2010 in an odd game Green Bay won 9-0 in New Jersey.

While I’ll always praise Rex Ryan’s defensive acumen, Rodgers won’t have as much trouble against the Jets’ aggressive defensive scheme in this one. At home, Rodgers will be more comfortable dispersing the ball to his assortment of targets. Sure, I kinda-sorta whiffed on my Rodgers prediction in Week 1, but the Jets defense isn’t the Seahawks defense at home in Seattle. It should be a good, not tremendous day for the best quarterback in football. Yes, I still believe he is.The Jets are the 8th-best WR matchup of Week 2 per the RosterWatch Matchup Tool.

AMAZING PREDICTION

Jordy Nelson: 8 catches, 110 yards, 1TD
Randall Cobb: 6 catches, 75 yards 1TD
Jarrett Boykin: 5 catches, 70 yards

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisTrapasso

47 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By rul8agn

    PPR. I can start 2….

    Cooks, Benjamin, Golden Tate, Doug Martin

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      rul8agn-

      Benjamin + Cooks

  2. ↓ Post By Bill

    With Marshall and Jeffries maybe out or limited, Martellus Bennett is going in my w/t flex. My question is: Wallace, Cruz, or Robert woods in my last WR spot? PPR

  3. ↓ Post By grahamhill87

    Is it time to drop heath miller or ride it out with him, also who do I put in rashad jennings, fred Jackson or Reggie bush

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      grahamhill87-

      Depends on what other TEs are on your roster or waiver wire. It’s def time to start looking. Rashad Jennings

  4. ↓ Post By grahamhill87

    What fo you think about dropping him for antonio gates or charles clay? Or even owen Daniels

  5. ↓ Post By Chad

    Time to panic on Torrey Smith? 1-10-0 when you predicted 5-114-1. Watched the game and they weren’t even designing plays for him, it was all for Smith Sr.

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      I can’t speak for Chris, but my partners as RW can attest to the fact that I’ve been off the T Smith bandwagon for years. I’ve always seen him as an inconsistent WR3 at best. I wouldn’t necessarily drop him, but don’t dare depend on him on a weekly basis.
      -Trashman

  6. ↓ Post By NAtoms

    I have Dez and Jordy starting WRs
    As a flex do I start: C.PAtterson, E.Sanders,Cooks, or Keenan Allen

    As RB1 I have McCoy
    Should i start R.Jennings,Terrance West, or F.Jackson as RB No.2?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      That’s quite a bench to work with. As the number 1 in Minn. and someone who gets rushing yards as well, I have to go with CP. I would play Jennings as rb2.
      -trashman

  7. ↓ Post By buddblazer

    carlos hyde or pierre thomas? standard. thanks…

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      buddblazer-

      Pierre Thomas. Good luck

  8. ↓ Post By jz3386

    Pick 3 lacy, Ingram, Jennings, vereen and Fred Jackson?

  9. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    jz3386-

    Lacy, Jennings, Vereen- what an unbelievable lineup that is. Good luck

  10. ↓ Post By raywags

    ATX is the house! Please pick 2 : standard- Ellington, Vereen, Harvin and C. Patterson.
    Pick 2: PPR- Moreno, J. Hunter and K. Allen
    Enjoy the weekend!

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      Patterson, Harvin – Moreno, Hunter. Good luck!

  11. ↓ Post By Ector

    Do you think Adrian Peterson will play this week? Also would you play Kyle Rudolph or Delanie Walker I cant get it out of my head how bad the Cowboys are against Tight Ends.

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      He’s already been suspended for at least this week. Pick up Matt Asiata or Jerrick McKinnon if he’s already taken. I like either tight end this week, but you have to think they’ll lean heavy on Rudolph with no AP around.

  12. ↓ Post By jz3386

    Well I had Peterson and Martin. Waiver wire looks like asiata, Bradshaw, Rainey, McFadden or Murray from Oakland obviously?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      You’re right on. I also like Stewart and Tolbert in Carolina.

  13. ↓ Post By jz3386

    Who would you pick up from that group?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      jz3386-

      If Doug Martin is out- we like Rainey, If DeAngelo is out- Stewart. If neither, is out it’s Bradshaw- we like him vs the Eagles on the turf in Indy. Good luck

  14. ↓ Post By gilbertafell

    Need to start three from the following Vereen, Jennings, Ellington, Ingram, Gerhart and D. Martin.
    Help

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      gilbertafell-

      Vereen, Jennings, Martin if he’s a go. If not prob Gerhart stictly based on volume.

  15. ↓ Post By VickInABox

    Is Gordon worth keeping in light of his suspension dropping to ten games. Have eleven bench spots but could fill with talent now. Thoughts?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      VickInABox-

      That sounds like a huge bench. You say talent is available, who else could you pick up instead? Without anymore information, we’d say hold him. Especially if you think you have a playoff roster as it stands. Good luck

  16. ↓ Post By Caperinglat

    ingram, bush, lacy, williams, crowell.
    boldin, benjamin, jackson, allen
    gates graham
    2 rb 2 wr 1 flex…need some help with this week

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      caper- which jackson are we talking?

  17. ↓ Post By bwoodru87

    1/2 point PPR league. Need help with who to start at flex position. Options and thoughts are below:

    1. Fred Jackson (Like freddy’s durability and involvement as a third down back / passing game. Saw what Vereen did to the Dolphins last week, just worried that might be spiller instead of Freddy)
    2. Vincent Jackson (Still pretty high on VJax however, McCown didn’t look as good as I originally had thought he would, and with fairly good options on my bench, just not sure how to play him)
    3. Kelvin Benjamin (Looked like a serious stud in Week 1 with a backup QB. Now he’s home with Cam at QB and against a lions secondary? I drafted him as my sleeper, just not sure if one week is enough evidence to roll the dice on a rookie)
    4. Matt Asiata (Had the extra bench spot and with AP out, I picked up Matt incase AP misses more than one game. Thoughts on if he is going to get the bulk of the carries in Min?)

    Thanks for the help!

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      bwood-
      Asiata will definitely get the bulk of carries in Minn. For me it would be between him and Jackson. ppr might push me to Jackson. I love Kelvin, but with a weakened running game, Det. can go all out on covering him.

  18. ↓ Post By renourka

    Ahh need help deciding who to cut for one of these DEF:
    Bills vs. MIA
    Packers vs. NYJ
    Dolphins @ BUF
    Saints @CLE
    Redskins vs. JAX?

    12 team Standard:
    QB: Big Ben
    RB: Lynch & T. West
    WR: Julio Jones & Patterson
    TE: Gronk
    Flex: Julius Thomas
    Bench: T. Richardson, Garcon, Kelvin Benjamin, J. Gordon, C. Ivory, A. Williams

    Also, someone offered me Mike Evans for Ivory but I feel like I’m already set at WR. Actually who should I try to package up in a trade for maybe an upgrade at QB or RB? Does have Gordon have any trade value? Thanks in advance guys!

    1. ↓ Post By renourka

      Oh is it a good move to be starting Terrance West over T-Rich above ^ ?

      One more question for my other 12 team Standard league … who would you start this week at RB2? Ridley @MIN, T-Rich vs. PHI, Sproles @IND, or Greene vs. DAL?

      1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

        renourka-
        yes, t-rich is totally unreliable. I would go with Greene at rb2.

    2. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      renourka-
      I like the Saints def. you’re set at wr, don’t do it. I would maybe package west with one of your wrs for a solid rb. Gordon should have major value for a team that doesn’t need him right now but looks set to get to the playoffs.

      1. ↓ Post By renourka

        okay how does this trade sound where I give up West, Ivory and Kelvin Benjamin for Rashad Jennings and Mike Evans ? no brainer given my team listed above right ?

        1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

          I wouldn’t do it. Evans is injured, and we like West going forward.

          1. Post By renourka

            Would you still not make the trade even though there are the following available RBs on waivers: Asiata, DMC, MJD, Greene, J. Hill, Bradshaw, Crowell, L. Murray and A. Williams? I’m not too worried about RB depth in this somewhat shallow 12 man league but like the idea of having Jennings because I don’t know how long Lynch will last all year! Also I can’t find any news on Evans’ injury so how serious is it? Appreciate your input as I was just one click away from accepting it…

          2. Post By renourka

            Oh also forgot to mention these guys who are available on waivers: Knile Davis, J. Stewart, Blount, K. Robinson, D. Freeman, and McKinnon… With my extra roster spot after the trade I was gonna pick up the highest RB on the waiver wire cheatsheet this week! So still no on the trade RW?

          3. Post By Dorian Colbert

            If I was sure to get a Davis or Robinson on waivers I’d probably do it. I’d check into Evan’s situation first though.

  19. ↓ Post By shreck24

    rb ppr with bonus points for big plays. spiller or stacy? thanks in advance

  20. ↓ Post By reyeskevin

    Ppr – pick 2-
    Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, Justin hunter, or Michael floyd.

    Ppr – asiata, Reggie Bush, or joique bell.

  21. ↓ Post By Tb1519

    2point PPR I need a rb wr and flex
    D Martin R Jennings K Moreno
    B cooks K Benjamin M Crabtree V Cruz K Wright

  22. ↓ Post By bond007taz

    PPR – need 3 which would you choose ? Allen Hurns, Vincent Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Anquan Boldin

    I am leaning toward Allen Hurns, Vincent Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders???

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