Trashman’s Fantasy Fallout
Welcome back RW Nation to the inaugural Fantasy Fallout of the 2017 NFL Season! I’ll dispense with the small talk and get right to business, there’s too much to cover this week….
Chiefs vs Patriots
- Kareem Hunt is everything we thought he was, maybe more. Fortunately, most of RW nation owns him. He’ll probably never have another game quite like week 1 this season, but he’s still no one you want to sell high on.
- The same can be said for Alex Smith, at least the never having another game like this in 2017 part. Multiple games from him with 2 TDs over 75 yards is like lightning striking the same person twice. He’ll be solid, but his value will never be higher this season. Time to sell if you have him.
- As I asserted going into week 1, James White is the back to own aside from Mike Gillislee in NE. He led the RBs(53) in snaps, and it wasn’t close(Gill was closest and he had 23 fewer snaps).
- As usual, Amendola is injured. He has a history of concussions, so don’t be surprised if his absence lingers. Former Colt Phillip Dorsett makes for an interesting add in deep formats in Amendola’s stead.
Cardinals vs Lions
- It just wouldn’t be fantasy if the top pick in virtually every draft didn’t get injured the first game of the season. Johnson is out for 2-3 months, and will be replaced by a committee of Kerwyn Williams, Andre Ellington, and Chris Johnson. AZ kept Kerwyn over Chris this preseason, so don’t get too excited about the old man’s prospects just yet.
- John Brown was 2nd on the Cards in targets(9) behind Fitz and looked no worse for the wear. AZ will have to lean on their passing game even more with no DJ, so make sure Brown isn’t is on your squad come waivers. Make sure you get the right Brown though…
- Don’t let Marvin Jones‘ fantasy output fool you. He had only 2 targets on the day, making him 7th on the team in week 1. Golladay makes for a much more exciting play, and he’s going to be a magnet for end-zone targets all year.
Eagles vs Redskins
- Oft maligned during the preseason, Blount led the Philly backfield in carries by a wide margin with 14.
- Sproles led the RBs in snaps with 49, but with so many valid options at receiver in Philly these days, his productivity may be inconsistent.
- How ’bout it for Agholor? RW had all but given up on the former favorite, but I guess the preseason murmerings were true. He’s bought into the system and himself, and his strong start is going to give him momentum going into week 2. He just looks hungrier than the other WRs.
- As usual, Torrey Smith let his owners down. He’s too TD dependent to be used with any regularity.
Falcons vs Bears
- I stand by my claim that Austin Hooper will lead the Falcons pass catchers in TD receptions on the season. Julio only topped 8 TDs in a season once in his career, and that was in 2012.
- Mohamed Sanu led ATL in targets with 9. He makes for a low upside streaming option in plus matchups.
- If you read my preseason piece on my trip to Bears camp, you’d know that Tarik Cohen is a fantasy explosion waiting to happen. He’s top on my list of RB adds this week.
- I don’t love any of the WR options in Chicago, but Kendall Wright is the closest thing to a no.1 WR they have now that White is on IR. Cohen is actually their best bet for catches.
Jaguars vs Texans
- The Jags found a remedy for Bortles’ woes and that’s to hand the ball off to Fournette, especially now that Robinson is gone. Leo is going to rival Hunt for the rookie rushing title.
- Allen Robinson is gone for the season, making Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns relevant again. Hurns makes for a high upside pickup against TN this week.
- Tom Savage was anything but on Sunday. I expect the Texans to move forward with Deshaun Watson if his ankle holds up through practices.
- Lamar Miller makes for a sneaky trade target now that Watson is probably the guy, as they’ll lean heavily on the run. D’Onta Foreman has a ways to go to become relevant.
Jets vs Bills
- Forte out snapped Powell 60% to 52% against the Bills. It’s not an indictment on Powell so much as an endorsement for Forte. If McCown is the best the Jets can do at QB, expect both of these backs to stay busy.
- Jermaine Kearse led all Jets in receptions on Sunday(7). He’s going to have a solid floor most weeks in PPR formats.
- A perennial leader in rushing attempts, the Bills go to the ground often enough to bring Mike Tolbert into fantasy consideration. His ability to catch passes and be useful on the goal line as a human bowling ball makes him an intriguing flex play in deep leagues.
- Zay Jones is a Ferrari being driven by your grandmother in the Bills offense. Nonetheless, he’s a hold.
- TE Charles Clay led the Bills in targets with 9. He’s a solid start for the time being.
Raiders vs Titans
- Beast Mode looked like his old self on Sunday with a respectable 4.2 yard avg. on the ground. He’s a high upside RB2.
- Seth Roberts was on the field 83% of the time, ahead of Crabtree by 10%. Hopefully his targets trend upward.
- WR Corey Davis came out gangbusters on Sunday, notching 6 receptions on 10 targets(the most on the team). His connection with Mariota is palpable, and he needs to be owned in all formats.
- Henry already looks more explosive than Murray in the Titans backfield. Make sure he isn’t unowned in your league come waivers.
Ravens vs Bengals
- Woodhead is going to be down for awhile with a hamstring injury – he’s had them before. Buck Allen is right behind Tarik Cohen for top RB pickups this week for me, as he actually out snapped Terrance West 50% to 41%.
- Gameflow dictated the Ravens anemic passing attack on Sunday, as they got out to a lead and played ball control for most of the game. The Ravens usually lead the league in passing attempts.
- Dalton looked like a rookie against the Ravens, and things probably won’t get much better against the Texans this week. You need to make other plans this week if he’s your current QB.
- Gio Bernard was Cincy’s most effective back on Sunday, and while much of that was due to the hole they were in early on, it just goes to show that in its current state, anything can happen in the Bengals’ backfield on a week to week basis.
Steelers vs Browns
- I pray that someone in one of my leagues sours on Bell after this game. It was his lowest yardage total in his career and an anomaly to say the least. Doesn’t hurt to put feelers out for him in smaller leagues.
- The same can be said for Bryant, as far as making trade offers for him. Some of his owners are already skittish according to some of the questions I’ve fielded since his debut. He’s other planetary talent wise, and he’s going to show up more often than not.
- Jesse James makes for a nice pickup, but don’t get it twisted, he’s not going to out target Bryant and Bell on a regular basis.
- We saw it in the preseason, and it manifested in the first game. Kizer loves Coleman, and he’s a WR3 with WR1 upside in plus matchups.
- I wasn’t high on Crowell coming into the season and games likes this show why I’m not excited about him. He’s not very explosive, and he’s dependent on volume to make his nut. That being said, he’ll get much volume while Kizer develops.
Colts vs Rams
- The Colts coaching staff is mulling over whether Jacoby Brissett should start over Scott Tolzien in week 2 after joining the team two weeks ago. Every other human being who saw the train wreck that was the Colts offense under Tolzien is pretty sure of it. Oh yeah, Luck is out for week 2.
- If you’ve got depth at WR, now might be a good time to throw our offers for T.Y. Hilton. He’s going to be a WR 1 when Luck gets back, and his current owners may already be panicking after week 1.
- Marlon Mack looks great, and more importantly got goal line carries. He’s not on par with Allen, Cohen, or Williams right now, but he needs a long look in deeper leagues.
- It’s hard to tell if it was the Rams’ offense or the Colts’ lack of defense, but things were firing in Los Angeles on Sunday for Goff and co. Goff completed 21of 29 passes and was able to spread the ball around.
- All Rams WRs had decent games, but Goff really likes Cooper Kupp, especially in the endzone. He needs to be owned in all formats, and he probably is already if you’re a pro-member of RW.
- Gurley had a good game, but his avg. of 2.1 yards per carry is a little disconcerting.
Panthers vs 49ers
- Christian McCaffrey had a serviceable game in which he was on the field 70% of the time to Stewart’s 43%. The Panthers say they’re going to limit his snaps, but his high usage right at the outset of the season is very promising for his fantasy future.
- The addition of McCaffrey might actually be a boon to Stewart who gets to stay fresh and potent as the goal line back. He is actually still available in quite a few leagues. Make sure he doesn’t stay that way. He’s going to provide a lot of value as long as he’s healthy.
- I wouldn’t get too excited about Russell Shepard and his TD. He was on the field less than any other WR by at least 30%.
- The 49ers look like hot garbage. They’ll be behind a lot it seems, so that’s good news for target hog Pierre Garcon. He’ll put up Edelman like numbers in ppr from the looks of things. Goodwin makes for a longshot flex play in deep leagues.
Seattle vs Green Bay
- Seattle’s terrible O-line was exposed against the Packers, whose LBs were also able to contain Jimmy Graham. Wilson is going to have to become less dependent on him.
- Paul Richardson is the clear no.2 in Seattle and actually led their WRs in targets. He’s more dynamic than Baldwin.
- There isn’t a lead back in Seattle yet, but Chris Carson is their best bet. He needs to be owned in 12+ team leagues.
- Randall Cobb bounced back in a big way to start the season with 13 targets, but it’s difficult to say whether it was a strategic maneuver or part of his regular script this year because Seattle’s outside corners are so good. He’s still the 3rd WR in GB I want to own.
- Jamaal WIlliams is not a threat to Ty Montgomery yet. He can be dropped in redraft leagues.
Giants vs Dallas
- Wow, if this is what the new look Giants offense is going to be like, I want no part of it. We’ll get a better idea of its operation when ODB returns, but things aren’t promising. It might just be another case of the Giants not showing up until halfway through the season.
- Should ODB miss more time, it’s sad and safe to say that Shane Vereen is their leading receiver.
- Paul Perkins was not sharp in his first start this season. It seems like Darkwa is a more effective short yardage runner and Vereen is a better pass catcher. I’m giving him another game or two to shape up before taking him out of lineups.
- Dez Bryant struggles against elite corners, and that’s bad news considering his schedule is full of them. He’s going to have to depend on volume for much of the season.
- Terrance Williams, as much as I don’t think about him, could offer some use during this juggernaut of imposing secondaries Bryant is going to have to face. Dak isn’t afraid to trust him when Dez is shadowed.
Vikings vs Saints
- Bradford made short work of the Saints secondary on Monday night, but he faces a much tougher test in the Steelers this week. If can succeed in that matchup, you might be able to start him for the foreseeable future.
- Diggs is a WR1, and it makes me happy. Kudos to those who waited for him in drafts.
- Adam Thielen picked up right where he left off in 2016 with a monster of a game against the Saints. Even more kudos to those who waited on him. Think of him as Crabtree to Diggs’ Cooper.
- Dalvin Cook is the dude. Already. Murray got 2 carries to Cook’s 22. We at RW knew it wasn’t going to be a contest going in though.
- The NO backfield just got more muddled. Just when you thought you were going to have to choose between Peterson and Ingram every week, Kamara throws his hat in. What’s so promising about Kamara is that he has standalone value. All three backs need to be owned.
- Fleener is going to be worth the start as long as Snead is out, which is two more weeks.
Chargers vs Broncos
- The big question I have about the Chargers offense is where was Hunter Henry? Gates is still the most trusted TE in the passing game, and Henry may be relegated to a blocking role much of the time.
- Charles is already in a timeshare with Anderson. It doesn’t bode terribly for Anderson, as there are enough carries to go around, but it does make Charles a must add in deeper formats. He’s got some pop back.
- Siemian is no Elway, but he seems to have a pretty good handle of this offense. Enough so, that I’m willing to start Sanders and Thomas without hesitation. Heck I might even roll with Fowler in a pinch. He and Siemian go back to their rookie seasons in 2015, and the QB feels comfortable going to him.