PRO VEGAS TOOL – Week 4 DraftKings Flex Values Based on Vegas Player Props

alex bylineHere is a tool you can use in your Week 4 DFS research. We’ve aggregated all the open NFL player props available to us to identify how Vegas sees the fantasy production occurring in this second round of the playoffs.

By gathering the Las Vegas over/unders on receptions, rushing and receiving yards, we can compare the projected output to the DraftKings pricing as a tool in gauging the value of players while setting our DraftKings lineups.

We can, of course, also use it as a tool in making decisions for our playoff-only leagues or for DFS use on other sites than DK.

PLEASE NOTE:

– This is not a comprehensive list of all players, but we do our best to find as many props as we can across dozens of different sports books. Players will be added into the spreadsheet as the bookmakers get them to us through Saturday evenings in-season and later in the week during the playoffs. Please check back leading into lineup lock if you don’t see a player you’re interested in listed on the sheet.

– Due to the fact that we pull props from numerous sources both online and private, sometimes props between books and line-makers can differ, especially when getting them early. If we notice a major difference between two reputable books, we’ll update the sheet to use the average of the two props given while accounting for juice.

– These are not RW official projections, but rather, an additional tool to aid our members in decision making.

– This is not the RosterWatch DFS Cheat Sheet. Cheat Sheets can be downloaded here once available.

– Players with no over/under receptions props available have been supplemented with implied associated stats based on season averages and/or recent trends.

– The “Bonus” column is indicative of the three-point bonus received on DraftKings for rushing or receiving for 100 yards. Players with organic production projected by the bookmakers at 89.5 yards (rushing or receiving – not combined) or over receive three points, 79.5-89.5 receive two points, 69.5-79.5 receive one point.

Click here to go the shared spreadsheet (PRO MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACCESS)

64 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Show Me Your TDs

    Got an offer I would receive Antonio brown for Tevin Coleman and tyreke hill. I’m not sure how I feel about it. My other RBs are Anderson, Carson, Henry, Foreman and Jamaal. Other wideouts are Julio, K Allen, Jeffery and P Richardson.
    I’m thinking maybe accept and try and use Brown as trade bait for a RB. Do you think I should accept the offer or hold off? 16 team standard. Looking forward to the show later! Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By rw-u9ypWZhgm

      TAKE THE DEAL!

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Dude, go for it!!!!!!!!! You only live once, and you have plenty of Coleman types on your bench already! Best wishes, and congrats! Julio + AB + Keenan – MANIACAL

  2. ↓ Post By BIGJOE

    I have a few lineup questions

    J. Allen over C. Thompson?

    need one
    M. lynch
    C. Kupp
    J. Doctson

    need one
    C. Kupp
    T. Gabriel
    C. Beasley

    need two
    B. Cooks
    M. Evans
    P. Garcon
    TY. Hilton

    Thanks guys!! I love the show.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Think you have to stick with CT right now.

      Prob Lynch and pray for a TD

      Think Gabriel

      Cooks
      Evans

  3. ↓ Post By Coldbear

    From my messages above, the trade was proposed: give: Carr, Ajayi and Jeffrey. Get: Rodgers and Emmanuel Sanders.
    My team
    Hunt
    CJ Anderson
    Cohen
    Smallwood
    Jamaal Williams
    D Parker
    Rishard Matthews
    M Thomas
    D Macklin

    Should I pull the trigger. 1pt PPR 12 man league

    1. ↓ Post By BIGJOE

      I wouldnt

  4. ↓ Post By born2beast

    2-flex league. White, Crowell, Garcon, Maclin, Kupp, Braida. Need a WR + 2 flexes?
    (49ers play at 4 might not know if Hyde is out and all my options play at 1 except Garcon)

    Parker, DCook, Fitz. Need 2?
    Both PPR

    Rivers or Mariota?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Eh……man we’d go full on Trashman flex ranks with the first one! Right now think it’s prob 2 of the first 3.

      Cook and prob Fitz.

      Rivers

  5. ↓ Post By jimgolden19@yahoo.com

    Hey Guys – would appreciate your opinion: C. McCaffrey or C.J. Anderson (full PPR)

  6. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    Prob CJA.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      eh…..actually in PPR – I think I’d get sick and roll out CM, now that I run it back.

  7. ↓ Post By Ryan.chellin@gmail.com

    Help me out. 0.5 ppr

    Gotta Start 2 at RB
    Lynch
    West
    Kamara
    J Charles

    Gotta start 1WR from
    JJ nelson
    Garcon
    Crabtree

    Then I need a Flex from 1 of the above RB/WR I didnt choose to start
    Thanks Guys!

  8. ↓ Post By jimgolden19@yahoo.com

    Thanks BLam! CM it is!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      you got it, sir

  9. ↓ Post By gutsman004

    Team Name: Bombs Away Record: 1-2

    Need 2 of 3, PPR.

    Devante Parker,Alshon Jeffery,or Stefon Diggs

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Parker + Diggs

  10. ↓ Post By stephen

    i cant beleive i am asking this but should i start carr or goff? 6 pts per td

    1. ↓ Post By gutsman004

      I have Carr in a league and I benched him for Carson Palmer. Would probably bench him for Goff too. Crabtree is doubtful.

      1. ↓ Post By stephen

        thanks.. i forgot to mention i could also pick up keenum .. do you think keenum would be better than goff

        1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

          Don’t think so

      2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        thx Gutsman – agree

  11. ↓ Post By RJuls777

    Guys I am in a 12 team half point ppr…currently 0-3 and on life support…Please help..Below is my current lineup build and I am looking for flex advice…need to add 1 flex player to the following build.

    Here are my options to add to the flex position to the lineup below (crossing my fingers to get this right) – Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Wendell Smallwood, D’Onta Foreman, Andre Ellington, Pierre Garcon & Martavis Bryant…Also available on the waiver wire is Travis Benjamin, Robert Woods, Taylor Gabriel, Cooper Kupp & Funchess…TE’s also receive a full point PPR and available options are Jesse James, Mercedes Lewis, Ben Watson, David Njoku, Jack Doyle, Ryan Griffin and Julius Thomas.

    Need to win this week boys at all costs here is the current lineup configuration (Please provide me with the correct flex choice):

    QB – Russell Wilson
    RB – Jay Ajayi
    RB – Melvin Gordon
    WR – Larry Fitzgerald
    WR – DeVante Parker
    TE – Austin Seferian Jenkins
    K – Blair Walsh
    D – Baltimore

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Crazy man, that’s a good roster. Just have had the unfortunate luck of handful of guys with slow starts. Fantasy is crazy, because it is so important to win early. We wouldn’t be shocked if at some point you go on a major tear, just gotta hope it’s not too late.

      Looks like this lineup is set correctly. You should consider Ryan Griffin in 1 ppr for TE. I’d also have a long look at that BAL defense vs some of those at the top of this week’s WW Cheat Sheet.

      Flex- I’d roll Garcon or Martavis. Hate Garcon’s matchup, but they have no choice to target him. Martavis a little more bust potential- but feels like a higher upside play.

  12. ↓ Post By mjp@qorvis.com

    Two quick questions for a 3-0 team in season long standard league for week 4:

    1. QB start: Wentz or Mariotta?
    2. WR2 slot: Maclin, M. Bryant or TY Hilton?

    Extra Credit: Is Crowell a viable flex play?

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      mariota, hilton, very little upside right now with crowell. i’m not playing him unless i have to.

  13. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    Roll with the guys highest in our rankings! Crowell is a low end flex play, we aren’t too interested anywhere we have another decent option.

  14. ↓ Post By rw-mOmWveHtF

    im 2-1 in my league, quick question. what WR should i start 1 out of these 3:
    Tyrell Williams
    Willie Snead
    Jeremy Maclin

    1. ↓ Post By GB PACK

      I guess Snead is out.

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Snead is out- I’d prob roll Maclin.

  15. ↓ Post By chuckcnc@icloud.com

    Houston Oilers ——1-2

    I can only start 3 of the following:

    Dalvin Cook
    Shady McCoy
    CJ Anderson
    Joe Mixon

    Your show on Sirius XM and Vegas props suggest CJ over Mixon. But Mixon is my preference. Should I just follow y’all on this one?

    1. ↓ Post By chuckcnc@icloud.com

      1/2 point PPR

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      The get Mixon in!

      HAVE to start Dalvin

      Prob roll Shady at #3.

  16. ↓ Post By Jon

    t semiein vs oak or Big Ben @ Baltimore – rivers vs philly or palmer vs sf?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yikes- gotta go with the matchup in Siemian

      Good options in the other one- go with the one higher in our rankings- like them both.

  17. ↓ Post By Cancop1

    Quizz, Buck or Tevin at RB2 in PPR

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Eh- Tevin maybe the safe bet.

  18. ↓ Post By dignan@foxinternet.net

    Good morning. Great show!
    0.5 ppr, need two please:
    M.Bryant, D.Hopkins, M.Lee, J.Allen, T.Coleman.
    Thanks.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      DH + ML or MB

  19. ↓ Post By jstorrar@lutgertinsurance.com

    Morning Guys! Need a RB from Carson or Buck Allen in a full PPR? Also 1 flex from Jeffrey, M. Bryant, Kupp, or Parker? Thanks!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Carson

      Parker

  20. ↓ Post By yeagermeister

    Devante Parker or martavius bryant in flex?

    Also need 1 wr and flex from: cooks, ty hill, mixon, cmc, Coleman, d henry, Snead

    Both are ppr leagues.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I’d roll Parker

      and, I’d roll Mixon. (obviously Hill or CMC deserve consideration here- if you are smitten with one)

      1. ↓ Post By yeagermeister

        Only smitten w the trashman!

  21. ↓ Post By yeagermeister

    Ppr need 1 wr n flex: kupp, martavius bryant,doctso, and lynch

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Bryant

      1. ↓ Post By yeagermeister

        What about flex?

        1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

          ouch- prob Lynch and pray for TD. If you hate him- flip a coin on those WR- prob Kupp.

  22. ↓ Post By chuckcnc@icloud.com

    who do I drop for Josh Doctson?

    Cam Newton
    Corey Davis
    Duke Johnson Jr.
    Matt Breida
    Rishard Higgins
    Austin Sefarian Jenkins
    D’Onta Foreman
    Paul Richardson
    David Njoku (Streaming him for this week).

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Higgins

  23. ↓ Post By Adam

    PPR- Thompson or coleman

    cutler or rivers

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Rivers

      Thompson

  24. ↓ Post By pulse009@hotmail.com

    1pt ppr – Who do I leave out? Hopkins, Parker, E. Sanders Jeffery, McCaffrey

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Jeffrey

  25. ↓ Post By pulse009@hotmail.com

    Would you start Carson over Lynch?

  26. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    Thanks to all for joining me this morning, best wishes this week!

    1. ↓ Post By chuckcnc@icloud.com

      thank you boss!!

  27. ↓ Post By bkirkb@mac.com

    Are you guys fading Garson this week? I could throw T. Coleman, Woods or Foreman in for him?

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      i could play coleman over him. i’m fading garcon outside of ppr leagues

      1. ↓ Post By bkirkb@mac.com

        It’s a PPR so I’m leaning towards leaving him in.
        Thanks for the response TM!

  28. ↓ Post By Robert Braswell

    Davante parker or tyreek

  29. ↓ Post By Robert Braswell

    1pt ppr

  30. ↓ Post By rw-DIj7ITTfx

    How come on the vegas cheat sheet you don’t post the QB Prop bets ?

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