Week 2 DraftKings and FanDuel – DFS Strategy and Top Picks

Kristen Ashly 750The NFL season has arrived, and with it comes the largest prize pools in daily fantasy football history. Single-entry tournaments and 50/50’s are important for a well-rounded DFS portfolio, but really, we’re all trying to become a millionaire, right? Every week I’ll take you through some daily strategic moves, who’s a bargain and who you should fade. There are some general tips that are good to remember when joining a DFS league, whether you’re a first-time player, or a veteran of the system.

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1) Don’t feel obligated to use your entire salary: When you finally get a lineup set that you like – using the RosterWatch 2-Step DFS Cheat Sheet, of course – it’s human nature to want to spend your entire budget if there is some salary left over; however, leaving some money on the table is not always the worst idea. If you find yourself with upwards of $800 in free space, it will always be wise to look for ways to upgrade, but changes should not be made to a lineup you really like just to make sure every dollar of your budget is spent when your free remaining salary is only an extra few hundred dollars.

2) Select players priced similarly to popular plays: For instance, in Week 1, Andre Ellington was more expensive than Frank Gore or Justin Forsett. What this led many players to believe is that Ellington is too expensive compared to his peers. Players in this situation likely won’t have as high an ownership level. So, if you buy players in these sorts of situations, you differentiate yourself from other players, as you have a lesser-owned player with what the provider’s algorithm has deemed to be similar (or higher) upside.

3) Not all lineups have to “look” like winners: Just like in season-long fantasy football, it’s important to remember that not all lineups need to be filled with star athletes. The sleepers often turn over the highest return rate, obviously. Don’t go overboard with this strategy, though. A successful GPP lineup will have always have a few out-of-nowhere sleepers, but it won’t be entirely comprised of them. Just remember that while your goal (especially in large guaranteed prize pool tourneys) is to differentiate yourself, you don’t have to do it with every player. The great part about rostering minimum-salary, low-percentage-ownership upside plays is that it opens up cap space to fill out the rest of your roster with more “sure-things.”

4) Seek positive player correlation: The obvious example is a QB/WR combo or a “stack,” where you’re hoping for both to score on the same play. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb were perhaps the most popular stacking options last year. Another less-used combo I’ve found to be effective in stacking is an RB and D/ST strategy. Pairing a RB and DEF is predicated on the idea that a good defensive effort will produce turnovers, perhaps on a short field, and subsequently give the team a lead, which generally results in more use of the ground game. Any choice where the points will stack up in either scenario.

5) Rotate kicker & defense: When submitting multiple entries in GPP or larger 50/50 contests, simply changing the kicker and/or defense surrounding your core players is a great strategy. The worst feeling in the world is nailing your skill-position picks and having a defense (or kicker if you play on FanDuel) tank and ruin your chances. To win one of the super-huge tournaments, you will need both these players to go off. To even cash, you will need neither of them to tank. With high levels of variance and tons of unpredictably in these two positions due to game script and factors beyond anyone’s control, limiting your exposure to a set kicker or team defense across all entries limits risk.

Justin Forsett 750

Kristen’s Top picks for DraftKings:

QB Tony Romo -$7,100

Last week, Romo went 36 of 45 for pass attempts. He threw for a total of 356 yards, with two touchdowns. Despite his numbers, his value, and the faith of the crowd, dropped. His salary at DK dropped $200 for Week 2, likely in response to Dez Bryant‘s injury. Dallas plays Philly this week, who has a less-than-ideal pass defense (ask Julio Jones). Even with Dez Bryant out, I would lay down the money for Romo.

WR Cole Beasley – $3,300

Beasley’s value also dropped $100 at DK. However, with Dez Bryant out, Beasley will move into a bigger role on the offense. He had six targets for Week 1; and caught four passes for 49 yards. The Cowboys will be forced to throw plenty, and with his ability to rack up receptions, he’s a great play on DK where the scoring is PPR.

WR Terrance Williams – $4,200

You could go several ways with Williams. You could create a combo with Romo-Beasley, Romo-Williams, or Romo with Beasley and Williams. Williams himself had five passes last week, being targeted eight times for 60 yards. He has a good chance of being a solid starter in Week 2. He’s likely to be one of the highest-percentage-owned players in DFS for Week 2, though.

RB Carlos Hyde – $5,100

It’s simple, Hyde will always be a good deal at this price. DK projected his Week 2 salary before Hyde’s outburst versus Minnesota Monday Night, and now Hyde faces one of the worst defenses in the league in Pittsburgh with Reggie Bush out and no competition for touches. The 49ers will surely want to grind the run-game out to keep a high-flying Steelers offense off the field. His ownership will be through the roof, but he’s near-impossible to keep out of a DK lineup with the value presented.

RB Lamar Miller – $5,500

Simply put, Miller will have more opportunities to run this week. He’s a good choice for at least one week since Miami plays Jacksonville.

RB Justin Forsett -$6,200

Last week, it was my opinion that Forsett was undervalued. He grabbed only 9.6 FPts, carrying the ball 14 times for 43 yards. He caught a total of 4 of 7 for 13 yards, as well. Forsett is facing a terrible Raiders defense, so use the fact that others will be off of him following a bad Week 1 to your advantage and scoop him up on the cheap.

TE Heath Miller – $3,500

Tight ends always come with a calculated risk outside of Rob Gronkowski, but Miller has been one of Big Ben’s biggest targets for years. In Week 1, he caught eight passes on 11 targets for a total of 84 yards. With Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant still on suspension, Big Ben will have to keep looking for other options.

D/ST St. Louis Rams – $3,100

The Rams have a solid defense that’s facing a bad Washington offense and a turnover-machine in Kirk Cousins. Despite it being road game, the D/ST could easily pick up sacks, interceptions, and a ST touchdown.

Jarvis Landry 750

Kristen’s Top picks for FanDuel

QB Ryan Tannehill – $8,000

The Dolphins are facing an awful Jaguars secondary. The combination of Tannehill and Jarvis Landry is also a winning one, so I say he’s worth the risk. It’s definitely worth tinkering with Tannehill/Landry stacks in larger tournaments.

WR Julio Jones – $8,800

One of the higher-priced WRs (or I should say ‘highest-priced’), Jones is almost always a safe bet; the guy is unstoppable no matter who he’s up against. As always, I say snatch him up immediately and build a roster around him.

WR Pierre Garcon – $5,400

Far from a flashy pick, Garcon will be facing the Rams lackluster defense, and he’s the top option to throw to on the field with Desean Jackson out and Jordan Reed seeming questionable.

RB Tevin Coleman – $6,500

Rather inexpensive for a player who had 20 touches Week 1 on a good offense, Coleman is a big points threat. He faces a soft Giants run defense during prime time. One of the bargains for this week.

TE Jimmy Graham – $7,100

Acting as a popular choice, Graham racked up a ton of points last week. He’s solid choice against a Green Bay team that’s murky on the inside linebacker and safety positions. He should have a bigger Week 2 than Week 1 based on the matchups.

D/ST St. Louis Rams – $4,900

Defenses and special teams are usually one of the cheapest out of the positions, as they are notorious for being a hit-or-miss on points. However, the Rams are facing Washington. No more needs to be said.

Julio Jones 750

Let’s take a peek at the games you should pay special attention to during Week 2

New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons

Vegas took a shocking move, and picked the Giants as the favorite. However, Rashad Jennings as high-scoring potential against a bad Falcons defense, and the Falcons gave up the most FPts to RBs in Week 1. Odell Beckham is a solid contrarian play, and I would play a lot of Julio Jones and OBJ in this matchup. It’s possible to roster both with the cheap RB options on board.

Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets

The Colts are off to a dreadful start, so I would fade Andrew Luck, Andre Johnson, and Frank Gore in cash games. Donte Moncrief is the only safe player to touch for this game. In tournaments, the Colts make a good contrarian stack, as it’s extremely rare to get a talented offense with lower-than-usual ownership. You might want to consider Dwayne Allen as a cheap tight end.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Put money on Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray, Darren Sproles and Jordan Matthews. Bradford will be a popular choice this week, and Matthews is a target monster.

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints also didn’t have a great start to the year, but they were up against a much better team than they are this week. This week will be a home game for the Saints, which usually works in their favor. I’d pay up for Drew Brees in all formats, will target Mark Ingram for the cash games, and keep an eye on WR Brandon Coleman in case of needing salary relief as his $3300 pricing on DK is ludicrous for the player who had the second-most routes run on the team in Week 1.

Follow Kristen Ashly on Twitter – @KristenAshly

3 Comments

  1. With Chris Ivory questionable for Monday night, should I pick up Bilal Powell and sit on him or should I just switch him out for Latavius Murray and not worry about it?

    1. get him and wait. i’d roll with ingram

  2. Also wondering about Ivory with DFS as I’ve picked him on there as well. I can switch out Ivory for any of the following without going over budget: Ingram, D. Williams, A. Morris, Gore, J. Stewart, Randle. Thoughts?

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