Dynasty Spotlight: Karlos Williams, RB FSU- 2015 NFL Draft

Height: 6’1″
Weight: 230 pounds
Hand Size: 9.75″

40 Time: 4.48
Vertical Jump: 33.5″
Broad Jump: 117″ (9’9″)

NFL Comparison: Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Andre Williams

Scouting Notes:

Karlos Williams is an absolute animal, on (and possibly off) the field. In a vacuum, based on talent alone, he is a Top 5 running back prospect in this year’s draft class, who has Jeremy Hill / Carlos Hyde type upside. Much like another rookie last year, Isaiah Crowell, Williams may very well be a gamble worth taking for some NFL franchise. One that could pay off big.

(Beasting)

There’s a lot of good on the field to get to, so let’s get the bad out of the way right now: Williams was investigated for domestic abuse in 2014, but was never charged. Nevertheless, in this day and age, the NFL is very sensitive to those types of allegations. That perception could cost Williams big in terms of his draft position. It could also make him a steal. None of it will matter though, if he does’t love football the other six days of the week, or the other eight months a year. After getting his feet wet in 2013, and showing very well- many expected Williams to take the job and run with it in 2014. He didn’t, he lost touches to a freshman, and that’s concerning. Some of the scouts we trust the most say Williams makes too many mistakes and is too inconsistent.

That could be because Karlos Williams only carried the ball 241 times at Florida State. It’s what happens when you’re converted from defense to offense halfway through your collegiate career. As scouts, we’d prefer to see the 500-1000 carries that we can judge from. It is fair to say, that on some level Williams is a “project”. In the end, we are all in the business of projecting. It is also worth mentioning that some teams prefer to develop backs with less mileage on the tires.

Now, on to the dazzle we see on the football field from Karlos Williams. He is a former linebacker and safety (who was often utilized like an extra linebacker), who in our opinion moved very well in space- but didn’t play with enough physicality or instinct on the defensive side of the ball. What do you do with a “football player” who isn’t physical enough to play defense? You move him to offense.

We were shocked to see on film, how incredibly natural Williams was in his transition to the running back position. Sure, he has some polishing to do when it comes to the nuance of the position- but when it comes to feet, power, vision, patience, and finishing ability- Williams has it all, and it comes naturally.

(Patience, vision, smooth change of direction)

You wouldn’t think a freshly minted running back would be so adept at executing within the structure of a zone scheme, but Williams is a natural at reading his blocks, finding a lane, and getting up field or finding the cutback.

(Good feet, change of direction, stiff arm, touchdown)

In many ways, he plays running back like a strong safety. Some knock him for “an upright running style”. We don’t see it. We see a guy who is tall at 6’1″, that when it’s time to finish a run, knows how to get his shoulder pads down, run behind them, and punish defenders for extra yardage. He’s an absolute hammer, that can be utilized in a smash-mouth fashion.

(Burst, pad level to finish)

He’s not a one-trick pony, though. Williams is a big play waiting to happen. He has elite burst, and good long speed.

(Big play potential, burst, legitimate long speed at 230 lb)

He’s a no-nonsense North/South runner when the play is there, but he can create on his own when it’s not. However, he doesn’t waste much motion when it’s not necessary- which coaches will love. We admire how subtly he pivots his hips, showing smooth and sudden change of direction.

(Back to back runs for nice gains, showing various positive traits)

At 230 pounds, he can still beat defenders to the edge. He can also run with a prowl, and demonstrates really nice feet- which we believe is the number one factor for power backs to be dynamic at the next level (Jerome Bettis, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill).

(Sucks the defense up, bounces outside, keeps feet churning)

Karlos Williams leaves Florida State averaging 5.88 yards per carry. In all fairness, many of his carries in 2013 were in mop up duty against inferior teams. Some would argue that he took a step back in 2014, showing a declining average over increased volume. We say, 4.6 yards per carry is still a very respectable output for a power back.

(Power to finish in the redzone)

Let’s also not forget that Williams is capable in the pass catching game, and while he may not be the most polished pass protector- he’s at least powerful and willing. He’s a three-down NFL back in the making.

(Hands catch out of backfield)

Fantasy Outlook:

Karlos Williams could be one of the biggest sleepers in all of Rookie Dynasty Drafts. He has RB1 potential. Any bust potential will be mitigated by his draft value. He’ll be a low risk pick late that has big upside. If you miss, so what- if you hit you’ll rejoice. At the very least, Williams has early goal-line appeal as a fantasy option. Williams will be a rookie to watch all season in redraft leagues and should be considered a must in later rounds of dynasty rookie drafts until further notice.