2015 Dynasty Rookie Drafts: Pre-Cheat Sheet RB Thoughts
The traditional, world-famous RosterWatch fantasy draft Cheat Sheet will have a new little maniacal cousin this season as we make preparations to roll out version 1 of the first-annual dynasty rookie draft cheat sheet. As we’ve gone through the rookies and put together the skeleton of the first dynasty cheat sheet (virtually all of whom RosterWatch has met, scouted and evaluated in live settings), here are some quick-hitting thoughts about the incoming class of rookie running backs and their team fits as we sort through the fallout of the 2015 NFL Draft:
Arizona Cardinals – We like David Johnson, who was the best pass-protecting back during the Senior Bowl, but we do not see him as a threat to Andre Ellington, who Bruce Arians told us at the combine that the Arizona offense will continue to be built around. Our initial appraisal of Johnson’s value in Arizona is very much like that of a Tim Hightower who Johnson is similar to in style.
Atlanta Falcons – Atlanta was a great landing spot for one of our favorite prospects in Tevin Coleman, and we’d be much more excited if Devonta Freeman was not already in tow for the Falcons. Some have mentioned that Freeman is smaller than Coleman and will be relegated to the “Quizz Rodgers”-role in this new platoon, but keep in mind that Coleman and Freeman were exactly the same weight at the combine. We’re not chalking up every-down duty to either back yet and think it could be a murky timeshare to start. It is Shanahan in Atlanta now, after all.
Baltimore Ravens – We love Buck Allen, and while he might be starting out behind Justin Forsett, we love Allen’s long-term value for dynasty as an every-down player and underrated blue-chip of the class. We could even see him getting involved early with goal-line work.
Buffalo Bills – Karlos Williams was one of our favorite RBs in the entire draft, but this landing spot is brutal. As things stand, Williams will merely be a must-own handcuff for Shady McCoy owners.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers took a runner we’re very, very unexcited about in Cameron Artis-Payne. While he has a small bit of Deangelo Williams to his game, we’re not brimming with positivity for a poor man’s Deangelo when Deangelo has not been rosterable for three seasons.
Chicago Bears – With Matt Forte’s future in Chicago likely to face uncertainty following the 2015 season, we view Jeremy Langford as a fine development roster piece and upside flier late in drafts as Langford has the better chops to fill in for Forte’s production PPR-wise in a hypothetical post-Forte setting in Chi-Town.
Cleveland Browns – Duke Johnson is a player who analysts had ranked anywhere from a Top 3 talent in class to all the way outside of the position’s Top 10. We’re somewhere in the middle as it pertains to Johnson and believe that Cleveland has tried to draft its own Gio Bernard to pair with Crowell and West. We like Johnson’s prospects most in a Manziel-led offense as that could lead to lots of dump-offs out of the backfield.
Detroit Lions – What a landing spot for one of our favorite players in the entire draft in Ameer Abdullah. He’ll automatically assume the Reggie Bush-role in the Detroit offense as a complement to the aging Joique Bell and is a player we could see getting very sick for fantasy owners in instances where 15-20 touches can be chalked up due to injuries or missed time from Bell.
Jacksonville Jaguars – The BIGGEST WINNER FOR DYNASTY PURPOSES IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT was T.J. Yeldon landing in Jacksonville. It’s a young offense with a desire to run the ball, an up-and-coming QB and a budding arsenal of weapons on the outside to keep the defense honest if a runner with Yeldon’s skill set can keep it ahead of the chains.
Miami Dolphins – We are not fans of Jay Ajayi and are not in love with the landing spot. Lamar Miller was coming into his own to end the 2014 season and moving in the right direction along with QB Ryan Tannehill. Some see Ajayi as a first-round pick in dynasty but we think it’s a huge reach.
San Diego Chargers – Melvin Gordon is a Jamaal Charles-clone heading to the AFC West to do similar damage. Gordon should be picked in the Top 2 selections of 2015 dynasty rookie drafts to kick things off and to be honest, we couldn’t argue with anyone taking him at one overall, especially in leagues with limited contract durations where owners might not want to wait half of one of their limited seasons with a player on contract to use Todd Gurley who may not be ready to start 2015.
San Francisco 49ers – Carlos Hyde is the player to own in dynasty as far as 49ers RB purposes, but every single member of RW has a sneaky feeling that the 49ers pick of Mike Davis could end up paying dividends for dynasty owners down the road. Hyde has had issues at times staying healthy and we think that Davis is a plus-player capable of making the most of any opportunity for volume that comes his way. He’s a must-own handcuff for Hyde owners with upside.
St. Louis Rams – Tre Mason owners cried in unison when the Rams selected Todd Gurley who is the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. Gurley is the No. 1 player for dynasty purposes and should be selected with the first-overall pick regardless of his current recovery from ACL injury. He’s simply too phenomenal a talent to pass on with the strides modern medicine has made in rehab from this type of injury.
Tennessee Titans – Our top three-down RB from the Senior Bowl, David Cobb steps into a situation where last year’s pick Bishop Sankey, as predicted OVER AND OVER here at RW, has stunk. Cobb will come in with an immediate shot to start and the offensive line in Tennessee, while horrible at times in 2014, is deceptively young and talented … it’s just had issues staying intact and healthy. We like Cobb to gain a foothold on lead-back duties in Tennessee by Week 8 or so, making him a fringe-first-round-worthy investment in dynasty rookie drafts at this early juncture.
Washington Redskins – Don’t sleep on Matt Jones just because Alfred Morris is still in town. Jones, if you watch his film, did most of his damage as a runner at Florida out of man-power concepts, but his attributes lend well to a zone-blocking scheme given his patience, vision, power and shedability of tacklers through his hips and thigh-pads.