Preseason NFL Schedule Breakdown by Division, and impact on fantasy QBs.
Frequently referred to as the “Snoozer Afternoon-Game Division”, or the “.500 Record-Gets-You-Into-The-Playoffs Division” The NFC West is coming off a season that some would describe as a slow, boring dumpster fire. For the 49ers, the most memorable moment of 2010 was former-Head Coach Mike Singletary’s miserable attempt to channel Winston Churchill’s “Finest Hour” speech at a press conference. (“But he did keep his pants on!” cries 49er Fan) The Cardinals had a guy playing QB who looked like the adolescent son of some random season-ticket holder. I don’t even know Max Hall and I held my breath like I was his mother every time he dropped back to pass. Larry Fitzgerald would look at him sometimes, shaking his head; obviously thinking “Dude.. HE SMALL man! Damn!” Seahawks fans will always say they did win their playoff game, so the season should not be considered a total loss. They beat a terrific Saints team at home in the Wild Card match. While this is true, a touchdown was so rare in that anti-fun zone they called Qwest Field that when Marshawn Lynch scored one in the playoffs, the crowd reaction literally caused an earthquake. Sushi tailgate parties were ruined.
The fact is, when 7-9 gets you into the playoffs, something isn’t working. History says this abysmal showing out of a group of four teams should be an outlier, not likely to be repeated in consecutive seasons. But, what awesome casinos and burlesque mega-productions has History built with your money recently? None? So let’s listen to Vegas-
Regular Season Win Totals Over/Under
Arizona 5.5 Seattle 6.5 St. Louis 7 San Francisco 8
Vegas does agree with History in this case, albeit barely. Hopefully, we will not have to stand idly by again, as a team with a sub .500 record gets to stink up all of our holiday cheer with their overwhelming stench of shame and loss. That’s your weird uncle’s job, anyway. The NFC East and AFC North are no picnic as opponents, and you need to think about that when you draft. The good part about owning players in this division, though is – they get to play each other- Twice. Lets go through team by team:
Arizona Cardinals
The good news is things can’t get much worse. The Cardinals and head coach Ken Whisenhunt have that going for them. Coming off a 2010 season in which their offense ranked 31 of 32 in rushing yards and dead last in passing yards, the former Steelers assistant who vowed to bring his potent rushing attack and hard-nosed offensive philosophy to the Desert can literally only move up from here. How far is the question.
Kevin Kolb (ADP- 118) Is he a franchise QB? We have all of 7 or 8 starts to judge him on. Arizona believes he is, and they paid dearly for his services. As a fantasy owner, you don’t have to. With an ADP of 118, it means that Kolb should be available in rounds 8-10 of your draft and represents major value at that price. He has arguably the most talented WR in the league in Fitzgerald as well as new veteran leadership at the TE postion from Todd Heap. Tough spots on the schedule include away games at Philadelphia and Baltimore. I know Kolb used to run scout team against Philly’s #1 Defense, but that defense did not include Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomghua or Jason Babin. He also doesn’t get to wear the red QB shirt that keeps people from creaming him this time. On the bright side, Arizona’s schedule during the fantasy playoffs is the 49ers, the Bengals and the Browns. Ranked 14th, 18th and 24th respectively against the pass in 2010. We are not comfortable with him as our outright starter, but he represents the most upside of any QB2 on our board, and could possibly be used effectively in a QBBC w/ another mid-round pick based on matchup.
Seattle Seahawks
The Matt Hasselbeck era is over in Pete Carroll’s land of professionally DJ’ed practices and coconut-scented tanning lotion. So what is the obvious thing to do? Bring in Tavarris Jackson, of course. You know- the guy with the rag arm that couldn’t beat out Old Man Favre for the starting job in Minnesota? While they were at it, they decided to pay former Viking Sidney Rice $41MM in hopes of gaining a bona-fide #1 Wideout for their new QB.
Tavarris Jackson (ADP 238) While Sidney Rice is a definite offensive weapon and explosive playmaker, the problem is Tavarris Jackson and Sidney Rice don’t have any chemistry. Yes, they played together in Minnesota, but that is the end of their connection. They started only 7 games together, and Sidney Rice’s receiving numbers in those games were as follows- 3 receptions for 82 yards, 2/10 yds, 4/66 yds, 2/18 yds, 2/31 yds, 0/0 yds and 5/60 yds. With a grand total of two Touchdowns. Not exactly Manning to Harrison. What’s even scarier is that these numbers were put up in an offense featuring Adrian Peterson and an impressive offensive line, who will make at least one DB or rover who would generally cover the slot WR press the line of scrimmage away from coverage. That Minnesota offense also had excellent possession recieiving options in Shiancoe, Harvin and Berrian to clog intermediate lanes and open up the fly route. If these two had any chance at forming a solid connection, they certainly should have at least showed some signs of it in that most favorable of settings. Seattle has hired the best offensive line coach in the country in Tom Cable, and used three of their top four picks on the offensive line in the 2011 draft. They are taking steps forward as an offensive unit, but were dealt a crushing blow once again with their seemingly annual loss of OT Russell Okung in the first preseason game to a high-ankle sprain. Couple that with early matchups like Week 2 at Pittsburgh and things could get ugly quick as this offense finds it’s stride. With an ADP of 238, Jackson should be solidly OFF your radar and used only as a bye-week fill-in until further notice.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams and head coach Steve Spagnula might have made their most significant offseason pick up via their offensive coordinator search, bringing in former Denver Head Coach and whiz-kid Patriots Assistant Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator. McDaniels is an undeniable talent at the coordinator level and is a Bill Belicik disciple (Literally. Bill Belichik gave him a 5-page paper once about coaching. McDaniel’s still carries it around and calls it his “Bible”.) In coming to St. Louis, he inherits a new toy that who was last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Sam Bradford (ADP 111) This is where fantasy football as a game differs from the true business of the NFL. When I look at Bradford, all I can think about is his striking resemblance in style, stature, game speed and natural leadership ability to Troy Aikman. If I was starting an NFL franchise today, he would be in the Top 3 QBs on my wishlist. This is fantasy football, though. St. Louis has more depth at WR than almost any team in the league, but no real elite talents. Role players like Donnie Avery and Danny Amendola provide sufficient targets in the intermediate passing game, but we have yet to see whether any of the young WRs they drafted this year or in recent years such as Danario Alexander can be true downfield threats. Avery has had some nice, long receptions, but he struggles against tall, physical cornerbacks.The addition of a physical, borderline #1 WR in Mike Sims-Walker could be part of the answer that Rams fans have been looking for in this area. If Steven Jackson can pick up on his career-low 3.8 ypc of 2010, the Rams would appear to have the pieces in place to continue their building around Bradford. It will be hard to continue this upward trend at the beginning of 2011, though. The Rams face a murderer’s row unlike any other team in the league to start the season with 6 of their first 7 games coming against the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Packers, Cowboys and Saints. OUCH. With an ADP of 111, you can expect to draft Bradford just ahead of Kolb- 7th to 9th round in most 12-team leagues. He represents value here after a 3500-yd passing campaign as a rookie, but with all the moving parts and question marks- we are not comfotable with him as our QB1. Like Kolb, stash as a QB2 and hope for upside, or buy low from the owner who drafted him and is disappointed in his early season output. The 2nd half of the Rams’ schedule is much more conducive to passing efficiency, and by then McDaniels should have a solid grip on how to steer the ship most effectively after not having the benefit of an extended preseason for install of a whole new system.
San Francisco 49ers
I first met Jim Harbaugh in 2003 at Pat O’ Brien’s during the New Orleans Final Four. Our conversation was brief. I said- “Hey! Jim Harbaugh!” He replied-”Hey! Where are all the college girls partying?” I told him I didn’t know, and we went our separate ways. Now Harbaugh has taken his party from one side of the Bay to the other, and 49er fans have embraced the young former Stanford head coach as the second-coming of Bill Walsh.
Alex Smith (ADP- N/A) All indications are that the “future” of the 49ers passing game now falls squarely in the lap of 2011 2nd Round Draft Pick Colin Kaepernick. The 6’5” 230 pound phenom from Nevada passed for over 10,000 yards while rushing for over 4,000 in college, and has all the makings of the type of QB that flourishes under Harbaugh’s tutelage. Add the fact that Kaepernick spent much of the time generally reserved for OTA’s during the lockout working w/ Stanford QB Andrew Luck learning Harbaugh’s offensive system, and it isn’t hard to see the writing on the wall. Consider Alex Smith’s one year deal with the 49ers to serve as a placeholder for Kaepernick’s development. I would not be at all surprised to see the position change hands if there is any stumbling out of the gate. Put Alex Smith on your DO NOT DRAFT list, and keep an eye on what happens with Kaepernick. Even with guys like Frank Gore, Braylon Edwards, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis leading your offense- You don’t win games with a guy who has thrown 53 picks to 51 TDs since being drafted #1 overall in 2005. That ship has sailed.
The NFC East faces the NFC West and the AFC East.
The NFC North faces the NFC South and the AFC West.
The NFC South faces the NFC North and AFC South.
The AFC West faces the NFC North and the AFC East.
The AFC East faces the AFC West and the NFC East.
The AFC North faces the NFC West and the AFC South.
The AFC South faces the AFC North and the NFC South.
