Week 7 DFS Strategy (DraftKings, FanDuel): Top Picks by Position
We’re closing in on the halfway mark of the 2015 NFL season, and fantasy football is not getting any easier. We’re deep into bye-week territory, the injuries keep piling up, and the unexpected is becoming the expected.
Just like every week, I’ll try to make choosing valuable players a less daunting task, and make it easier to single out the ones to fade. Also remember to download the RosterWatch Ultimate Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet. Here’s my Week 7 DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Remember: do your research, don’t create entire lineups with sleepers, and utilize the stack.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Tom Brady, QB- $8,500
The choice to pick Brady might seem obvious, but this week, it’s more of a strategic pick than usual. Brady is likely to go underused, as he’s seeing a price increase, and faces a rather tough matchup against a steady Jets defense who has held him to a less than 50 percent completion rate since 2013. He’ll likely be a forgotten man in tournaments, with other flashier (and cheaper) quarterback choices at the helm, but he’ll always have an obvious upside, no matter what the matchup entails.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB- $5,100
Every week, I’m surprised by Bridgewater’s ability to look confident, yet not pull out a strong win. It’s been awhile since Minnesota has found its groove with a team leader, but it seems to have done so with Bridgewater, if slowly. Despite his great leadership skills, he’s failed to capitalize on opportunities given, and hasn’t done much for owners points-wise. However, he can act as a great bye-week fill in, and is a cheap option when you want to spend money elsewhere. This week, he faces a Lions defense that is weak against the pass, and last year allowed him 315 yards. With how poor Detroit’s pass-defense is looking, I would say he’s a safe snag.
Doug Martin, RB- $4,900
Martin proved to be a fantasy-point beast the two weeks prior to his bye week, by gathering up 39.8 and 28.3 DraftKing points. Despite these outings, he’ll still be fairly low-owned, as most owners will pick up Todd Gurley at his ridiculous $5000 price tag. This week, Martin faces the Redskins, who were destroyed the last two weeks by running backs Devonta Freeman and Chris Ivory. Expect Martin to continue that trend.
Frank Gore, RB- $4,900
Gore has had more steady performances than breakout ones, but he’s facing a terrific matchup this week. He usually is given a limited workload, but he should the majority of the snaps and goal line opportunities this week against the Saints, as they have allowed 121.5 yards per game to running backs, the third most in the league. You can expect a 25-plus fantasy-point day from Gore, especially facing a team who has allowed an average of 30 points per game for running backs.
Michael Floyd, WR- $3,200
For being grossly low-owned and low-priced, Floyd has a tremendous upside. He’s seen 70 percent of the team’s snaps in the last three weeks, and is facing a rather easy matchup against the Ravens, who is one of the worst in the league when defending the pass-game – especially the big, deep balls on huge plays. He might not be the first choice in targets for Carson Palmer, but he’s a cheap and viable option this week when you’re looking for star players to spend your budget on.
Stefon Diggs, WR- $4,200
Last week, Diggs managed 129 yards on seven catches, which caught the attention of everyone who hasn’t been listening to RosterWatch SINCE MARCH OF 2015. He’s already one of Bridgewater’s favorite targets, and he’s a good option for those looking to create a stack. Diggs has yet to find an endzone, but he pulled in six catches for 87 yards against a good Broncos secondary, so I wouldn’t count Diggs out quite yet. He’ll carry a nice upside this week, especially in PPR leagues.
Rob Gronkowski, TE- $8,100
At such a high price, and with such obvious talent, it will seem wasteful to list Gronk at all. But, like Brady, he’s likely avoided because of that high price tag in Week 7 based on Thursday ownership percentages from FanDuel’s early-lock contests. Gronk’s suffered through “sub-Gronk” outings the last few weeks, and he’s facing a tough Jets matchup this week, but Brady should look to Gronk early and often. The Jets are almost impossible to run on, and Julian Edelman will likely draw coverage from Darrelle Revis for most of the game. With the necessity that Brady air it out, and the trust factor between him and Gronk, Gronk should prove to be a target monster.
Ladarius Green, TE- $2,900
Even for a tight end, he’s priced crazy low. He’s a risky pick, with Gates (if healthy) getting most of the targets for tight end for the Chargers. However, Gates is no lock to go after missing practice all week and Green will be less-owned this week against the Raiders due people wanting to avoid the situation entirely given Gates’ questionable status. This is important as Oakland has the worst pass defense in football against tight ends. It’s by far the best TE matchup on the Week 7 RosterWatch Matchup Tool. Even when Gates was inserted back at the starter following his intitial four-game suspension, Green still managed to rake in five catches for 50 yards in one game, and three catches for 35 yards and a touchdown in the second. Philip Rivers throws more than most quarterbacks, so Green should see his fair share of production. In the event that Gates does not play, Green becomes a screaming value at just $2900 in DK’s PPR scoring setup.
Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
Ryan Tannehill, QB- $7,700
During his first game under new coach Dan Campbell, Tannehill reminded critics why he was a breakout choice at the start of the season. Houston is one of the friendlier defenses against quarterbacks, and Tannehill has a slew of solid playmakers that are at his disposal. He’s a solid bargain at the price, but he comes with a risk. Owners will need to overlook his turnover rate.
Landry Jones, QB- $6,600
All signs point to Jones starting this week, after he led a Steelers comeback victory over a highly praised Arizona defense. Jones will be a cheap grab, and is facing an easy matchup for his first career start; the Chiefs’ pass defense sits at 28th in the league. Jones carries an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, so don’t overlook this little-known option. Our own Luke Shabro is predicting a 3-TD monster.
Latavius Murray, RB- $7,000
Murray has had a week off to rest his shoulder, improve on his running game, and hopefully get out of Del Rio’s doghouse which has seen him inexplicably benched/mot utilized in the second halves of the two contests leading into the bye. He faces a terrific against the Chargers, whose defense is giving up 122 yards per game on the ground and is a Top 10 situation for RBs per the RosterWatch Week 7 Matchup Tool. He’s not the cheapest option, but, for those okay with taking a mild risk, Murray can put up top-tier numbers at a mid-level price.
Todd Gurley, RB- $7,400
Gurley might be one of those most popular running backs to play, but it’s not hard to see why, and it’s not hard to buy into that craze. Everyone wants to take a ride in the Lamborghini. As a starting running back, he’s a work horse, and the Rams will feed him the ball so long as the running game is working to their needs. He plays the Browns this week, who rank 31st in run defense and were gashed by an unphysical and basically anti-Todd Gurley Ronnie Hillman of all people just last week. Gurley will be coming off a bye week rested and ready to run, so he’ll be a great buy for all formats – just remember, he’s likely to have the highest percentage-ownership of any player in the industry this weekend. That makes him both appealing to fade and downright scary to fade at the same time. There’s virtually no scenario outside of early freak-injury where he won’t return value.
Eric Decker, WR- $6,200
Decker has scored a touchdown in each of the four games he’s played in this season. He plays the Patriots this week, and in usual Belichickian form, they will be shifting their focus to shutting down the Jets’ best players in Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory, leaving opportunities open for Decker. Decker has solid production value near the redzone, which should be plentiful in a game with one of the highest O/U totals of the week and one that’s been predicted the Jets will be playing mostly from behind in.
Willie Snead, WR- $6,500
Snead has had at least four receptions per game in the past five weeks, producing at least 44 yards in every one of those games. He may not be flashy, but he’s solid in all fantasy formats. Aainst the Colts this week, he’s viable option, with an ability to scoop up over 100 yards and a touchdown. On a team where he’s only one of two real downfield options (the other being Brandin Cooks) in wide receiver territory, he’s listed at a good price.
Delanie Walker, TE- $5,500
Walker has been sneaky good this year in PPR, and while FanDuel is only .5 PPR, Walker plays the Falcons this week, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Walker is looking at a high ceiling this week for production opportunities with Zach Mettenberger likely at the helm and sure to depend on intermediate outlet options.
