Week 8 DFS Strategy and Top Picks by Position (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Week 7 was a relatively upset-quiet week, with the usual suspects drawing in the most points. Tom Brady, Doug Martin and Rob Gronkowski all had typical high-scoring performances, and fantasy owners were happy with the risk-free reward.
However, every week is a new week in the NFL, and sometimes, in DFS, the safest plays aren’t always the most rewarding. Take a peek at my top DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, and see which plays could give you the push your lineup needs.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Andy Dalton, QB- $6,000
How Dalton remains low-owned and this cheap is a mystery. He’s fantasy football’s number two quarterback through seven weeks, second only to Tom Brady. He’s tied at second for yards per attempt, and boasts a whopping 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This week, he faces the Steelers, whose defense is not great against the pass. With Dalton leading a stellar offensive unit of skill players, this game looks to be a shootout.
Philip Rivers, QB- $6,600
Another relatively low-priced and percentage-owned quarterback, Rivers arrives this week to a Ravens pass defense that is utterly useless. Josh McCown, Derek Carr and Colin Kaepernick all managed a combined 1,148 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns in three games against the Ravens…and those guys aren’t exactly the cream of the crop. Rivers himself has averaged 390.5 passing yards and accumulated 10 passing touchdowns in the last four games, racking up at least 24 fantasy points in DraftKings each week. At the price, he’s a low-risk steal.
Justin Forsett, RB- $6,100
Forsett’s only fault is that he doesn’t receive as many red-zone opportunities as fantasy owners would like to see. However, at home against San Diego, who has one of the worst run defenses in the league, Forsett is looking at some solid score potential, especially now that vulture Lorenzo Talliaferro has been placed on season-ending IR. Forsett is the number one option for the Ravens in snaps and running back touches, and with the Ravens favored by 3, we’re likely to see some high production from him.
Charles Sims, RB- $3,600
Even as a backup option, Sims sees the ball often. He’s managed at least 10 carries in each of his last two games, and is sitting at a respectable 16 receptions on the season. Sims will play the Falcons this week, who allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on DraftKings. With Vincent Jackson out and Austin Seferian-Jenkins looking murky at best to make his return, Sims has a high chance of seeing even more touches, which could result in a low-risk, high-reward payout.
Antonio Brown, WR- $7,800
Brown’s price can’t seem to go high enough–fantasy owners are still scooping him up at a ridiculous rate. No one can blame them, though, as Brown’s floor is high in full PPR. After four weeks of crap from Michael Vick and Landry Jones, Brown will get Big Ben back, which changes everything for both Brown and the Steelers’ offense. To scoop him up at this price (which is only depressed because of a recent lack of Roethlisberger throwing passes) would only be smart, even with the hard matchup this week. Remember, Brown managed 245 yards and a touchdown on 16 catches last year against the Bengals. He could see the same this week.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR- $3,400
In 2015, Ted Ginn has shown he still had speed to play. He leads the Panthers in targets, and has presented 13 DraftKing points to fantasy owners in four of his last five games. At his price, 13 points would be equivalent to scoring 35 from someone like Julio Jones, who is priced at $9,200. With his solid production, low cost and high upside, especially against a team like the Colts, Ginn is worth the pickup.
Ladarius Green, TE- $3,000
Green faces Baltimore this week, who is actually solid when defending tight ends. He’s still vastly underpriced, though, and could pick up three times his salary in cash games. The worst game Green has produced thus far is 9.7 fantasy points, which isn’t terrible. Still, he may not be a good choice if Antonio Gates is able to play, so be on the lookout for the status of Gates.
Benjamin Watson, TE- $3,500
Watson faces the Giants, who present a favorable match against opposing tight ends. Though not a target monster, his four catches last week was his second-largest total for the season, gathering up 59 yards. The veteran is now tied for second on the team with 29 receptions and leads the Saints with two touchdowns. He’s due for more big games.
Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB- $7,400
Some fantasy analysts might be quick to discount Fitzpatrick, but he did manage 295 passing yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against a tough Patriots defense last week. In his last two games, he totaled 548 yards, five touchdowns, and connected to nine different receivers. That production should bode well against the Raiders, who are banged up in the secondary and even when they aren’t they give up the most passing yards per-game in the league at 304. Fitzpatrick looks to have a high floor against a soft secondary.
Eli Manning, QB- $7,300
Manning sits at the tail end of usable quarterbacks where fantasy players usually don’t look, as he’s not really a hot pick, but not quite a “dig deep” sleeper, either. He plays against the Saints this week, whose defense is even worse than the Giants’. Manning has had back-to-back quiet weeks, which makes owners fret, but he’s also had four straight games of two-plus touchdowns and 10-plus FanDuel points. He’s a solid play this week against a positive matchup.
Chris Johnson, RB- $7,300
Johnson appears to be on a bounce-back campaign for the Cardinals, which is highly likely to continue against the Browns. Cleveland has given up the most rushing yards to opposing backs this season at 1,057, and the most rushing yards per game at 151. Cleveland is the No. 1 RB matchup for Week 8 on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. Todd Gurley managed to produce 128 yards and a touchdown last week against the Browns. While Johnson is far from Todd Gurley at this point in his career, it’s not unreasonable to expect a similar outcome given Johnson’s recent volume.
Danny Woodhead, RB- $6,100
Woodhead benefits from the Chargers’ air offense, both from the backfield and split wide. He could be a great cash option if you need to cut costs, as he’s extremely reliable when looking for targets and yards. It still remains to be seen if he can be reliable when looking for scores, but he’s on pace for 85 receptions and 930 yards this season, so touchdowns will present themselves. It’s also more like a positive that Woodhead is 2015’s No. 3 overall RB in PPR while being deficient in the TD category, which shows his production is organic and sustainable. Ravens have allowed 20.4 fantasy points to back in PPR, so he’s a good option for those tournaments.
Odell Beckham, Jr., WR- $8,700
Beckham might not be at his healthiest, but he’s playing a New Orleans defense who allows the sixth-most passing yards and third-most passing touchdowns this season. Beckham is a native of the Big Easy and this will be a homecoming game for him where he’ll surely want to put on a show for friends and family in attendance. Fantasy owners should hope for single coverage, and ride the risk.
Greg Olsen, TE- $6,400
Olsen follows Rob Gronkowski has one of the league’s highest-producing tight ends, so there’s not much downside to picking him up. He’s the number one option in the pass attack for the Panthers, averaging 8.33 targets per game, which really translates to the Panthers’ only volume air-option in Kelvin Benjamin‘s absence. He’s seen three touchdowns and averages 16.3 yards per carry, so he could be an easy choice for someone looking to spend some money at the tight end role.
Tyler Eifert, TE- $6,000
The floor for Eifert is relatively secure. He also boasts a high ceiling, as he carries the highest red zone-to-touchdown conversion rate among pass catchers with at least eight targets inside the 20-yard line. He sits as the key redzone weapon in the league’s second-best offense. The Steelers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so he’s certainly not a high-risk grab.
