Here is a new tool you can use for your 2020 season-long redraft and best-ball research.

We’ve gone through a number of various online sportsbooks to gather receiving yards, receptions and receiving TD props for each WR with a Top 55 ADP. When there have been differing props offered across books for any one player, we have used either a) the prop that is used with the greatest frequency and/or is offered with equal juice on each side when there are more than two offerings or b) have taken the average of the two props when there are exactly two offerings.

For many players, sportsbooks offer all three props: receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs, but not all. All players listed here, however, have at least one prop among sportsbooks for their total receiving yards on the season. From there, in these cases, we have extrapolated out what the implied totals are in the other categories. For receptions, if necessary, we simply divide the the total receiving yards prop by the player’s projected average yards per reception in 2020. For receiving TDs, if necessary, we’ve simply taken the player’s receiving yards prop as the numerator and the average receiving yards per receiving TD scored on his current team and in his current situation (normalized by averaging it with the 2019 NFL-wide average of 162 receiving yards per expected receiving TD among WRs) as the denominator. We can then give an implied fantasy-point total for the season based on this median projection generated by the bookmakers and compare it to ADP to see where Vegas is implying value could be had in our fantasy drafts, and to what degree. (For rookies, the 162 yards was used on its own).

To read the chart, the players are sorted by the DIFFERENCE (DIF) between their slotting according to average draft position vs. their slotting according to the implied season-long fantasy point totals in PPR (by which the sheet is sorted), half-PPR and standard. The differences are color-coded from the most positive differences (the players whose implied fantasy finishes show the greatest movement UP the ranks vs. their ADP) in dark green to the most negative differences (the players whose implied fantasy finishes show the greatest movement DOWN the ranks vs. their ADP) in white. Use the tool to help with any tie-breaker scenarios you may face, but always default to the Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet for final decisions in your drafts.

Please note that these 6 players currently in the Top 56 via ADP did not have any props available that we could find at this time: Will Fuller, Deebo Samuel, Mecole Hardman, Emmanuel Sanders, Preston Williams and Sammy Watkins.

 

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