Rookie Risers: ADP Observations
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

Rookie ADPs in best ball and redraft leagues often experience a roller coaster effect. Prior to the NFL draft rookie, ADPs are relatively inexpensive. Immediately following the NFL draft, many rookie ADPs skyrocket. This is an obvious overreaction and enthusiasm about the new player’s landing spots. Throughout the summer it is common to see rookie ADPs make drastic moves based on beat writer reports, camp news, and workout videos on social media. Some of the ADP movement is justified and other movements are unfounded hype. Below are three rookies who have seen a significant rise in fantasy draft cost since mini-camps have started.

Elijah Moore, WR New York Jets 

Elijah Moore has moved up 20 spots over the last three weeks. Prior to mini camp Moore was the WR80. He is floating between WR55 and WR60 depending on the data set. All of the reports from Jet’s OTAs have been glowing. Moore is routinely making acrobatic catches, highlight reel plays, and looks like a player that belongs in the NFL. Elijah Moore’s former teammates at Ole Miss, AJ Brown, and DK Metcalf are also confident that Moore will excel at the NFL level. Elijah Moore seems well prepared to hit the ground running as evident when he said “I had dudes like A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf giving me examples and critiques on what the NFL will be like.” The market is still skeptical that Elijah Moore has a clear path to immediate playing time with the restructuring of Jamison Crowder‘s contract. Elijah Moore has the upside to make an immediate impact. RosterWatch endorses taking the rookie WR a round ahead of his ADP. 

 

Najee Harris, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Prior to the NFL draft, Harris was getting drafted in the third round of early best ball contests. When the Steelers took him in the first round his ADP quickly moved into the top 18 overall, the middle of the second round of fantasy drafts. Though the Steelers offensive line projects as below average, there is no doubt that Harris is the best runner on the team. Harris is set up for a massive workload. A high volume of touches is the name of the game in fantasy football. Najee should be among the league leaders in rush attempts. The Steelers have historically relied on a workhorse RB, rather than split the pie among a committee of runners. Najee Harris has crept up to the 13th overall pick. He is a fringe first-round fantasy pick with room to move up even further. Harris is a rational late first round draft choice given his projected workload. 

 

Kyle Pitts, TE Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts is going to be an interesting test case against the historical data we have on rookie TEs. History says that TEs take a few years to develop. The most logical reason is that tight ends need to learn two positions. TEs need to learn route concepts like a wide receiver, while also learning in line blocking like a traditional tackle. A pro Pitts perspective is that he is a generational prospect who profiles more like a wide receiver. Julio Jones getting traded only fueled the narrative. Pitts has been compared to all-time receiver Calvin Johnson. A quick search of Megatron’s rookie year production shows that Johnson caught only 48 passes for 756 yards with 4 TDs;  a sobering view on Pitts’ 2021 outlook. Kyle Pitts was a seventh round best ball pick before the NFL draft. He is now a top 50 pick, who rarely falls out of the fourth round.  There is plenty of reason to be skeptical, and if Pitts breaks out in his rookie season with over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs, he will be an outlier. Betting on outliers is a suboptimal bet in fantasy football.