Drafting Players With Uncertainty-Ambiguous Depth Charts
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

The key to winning your fantasy football league is drafting players that outperform their ADP. In an ideal world, if all of our players outperformed their draft cost, you should theoretically win your league. Since that is improbable you need to identify soft spots in the draft market. One of the edges you can get is by focussing on depth charts that have uncertainty… ambiguous depth charts.

Indianapolis Colts Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman (8th Round) vs Ty Hilton (9th Round) vs Parris Campbell (12th Round)

It is highly unusual for a team like the Colts, who project to have a top 15 NFL offense, to not have a pass catcher with an ADP in the top 80 picks. The first Colt WR/TE off the board is Michael Pittman, who usually gets drafted around the late 7th or mid 8th round. The market hesitation on the Colts is likely due to the uncertainty around new QB Carson Wentz. Though Wentz cratered in 2020, he has shown extended stretches of MVP-like play. 

Pittman is likely getting drafted first of the WRs due to his youth. Pittman didn’t explode his rookie season but did have 10 targets in the Colts playoff loss last season. 

The narrative on TY Hilton is that he is washed up; an older player that is a shell of himself. A careful look at TY’s finish to last season may shock you. TY Hilton was the WR11 over the final six weeks of the season. As in a top 12 WR for fantasy football. He is the Colt’s WR RosterWatch is focused on to outproduce his ADP.

Parris Campbell is the cheapest of the trio, his ADP is in round 12. It is understandable after two lost seasons. Keep in mind Campbell saw nine targets during the season opener in 2020. He should be presumed healthy and is set up as one of RosterWatch’s favorite double digit round targets in 2021.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars Running Backs 

Travis Etienne (4th Round) vs James Robinson (7th Round) 

The draft market is assuming that first round draft pick, Travis Etienne, is going to immediately step in and be the primary ball carrier for the Jaguars. Though 2020 undrafted rookie James Robinson was an RB1 for fantasy football last year, fantasy players are ignoring Robinson. Travis Etienne’s late fourth round ADP means there is some hesitation on the rookie, which represents an opportunity to capitalize on the ambiguity of this backfield. 

Assuming rational coaching, it would seem unlikely that Jaguar’s Head Coach, Urban Meyer, would relegate James Robinson to a backup role. Even if Etienne is immediately integrated into the offense, Robinson should secure 12-14 weekly touches, including some goal line equity. There is a plausible path to James Robinson being the more valuable fantasy running back of the two over the first month of the season. All of this points to targeting James Robinson in early drafts at his current draft cost. 

 

Arizona Cardinal Running Backs 

Chase Edmonds (6th Round) vs James Conner (11th Round)

There is a significant gap in the Arizona runner’s ADPs. However, it is reasonable to conclude the draft market is uncertain who will be the more valuable player given that neither is a top 50 pick. Chase Edmonds has flashed in short stretches and should be acknowledged for his pass catching chops. James Conner has been a fragile workhorse over the past few seasons. Rosterwatch believes you can draft both players at cost, and see how the touches are divided up. It is plausible that both RBs have startable value. 

 

New Orleans Saints Quarterbacks (Superflex Leagues)

Jameis Winston (7th Round) vs Taysom Hill (9th Round)

In single QB leagues, both players can be ignored until we have more clarity on who will start. In superflex leagues, where you can start two quarterbacks, one of these players will have more value than both of them do right now. There is a seesaw narrative that has been going on all off-season as to who will start for the Saints. The Saints are paying Taysom Hill more, but Winston seems to be the slight favorite according to the Vegas odds. The reality is that it is 50/50 as to who will be the more valuable player. There is an opportunity in superflex drafts to acquire both and see how it shakes out. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:”rowa”};