Running Backs Worth Reaching For
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

Rostwerwatch’s signature tool, the ultimate draft cheat sheet, is crafted to help you leverage against average draft position. It is not a traditional ranking list. Following the three simple rules on the cheat sheet guarantees you an expert quality draft. There are times RosterWatch can endorse reaching ahead of ADP if you believe that a player has the upside to win you a fantasy football league. If you can see a plausible case that a player with an ADP outside of the top 24 can be a first round pick in the following season; he may be worth “reaching” for. Below are three players Rosterwatch believes could have league-winning upside.

 

Travis Etienne, RB Jacksonville (ADP 42 Overall, RB21)

RosterWatch has Najee Harris as our top rated rookie running back for fantasy football. Of course, you need to pay a fringe first round pick to get Harris. We like Travis Etienne from a talent perspective nearly as much as Harris. Etienne and Harris both have first round draft pedigree. So why is Etienne’s ADP significantly cheaper than Harris’? The perceived team context. Etienne is presumably in a committee with James Robinson, while Harris is an unquestioned workhorse runner. You have to ask yourself the question: What if James Robinson was out for the season?>Where would Etienne get drafted? Undoubtedly he would be a first round pick. It is easy to see Etienne as a top three overall fantasy pick in 2022. If you believe Travis Etienne has that kind of upside, he may be a player worth reaching for in your draft this year. 

 

Trey Sermon, RB San Fransisco (ADP 75 Overall, RB28)

Sermon landed in an ideal spot for running backs. The 49ers system is made for running back production. Even fringe NFL players like Matt Brieda and Jeff Wilson produced when given the opportunity. Sermon is a late sixth-round fantasy pick for good reason. His role is not guaranteed, especially early in the season. He could be a tough player to hold in some leagues that have five bench spots if he is not getting playing time. The upside is easy to see. Sermon is a rugged runner who plausibly could be used to soften up defenses before the 49ers bring in speedster Raheem Mostert to face tired defenses. RosterWatch has closely monitored Sermon’s ADP rise over the last couple of months. The ultimate draft cheat sheet is calibrated daily to stay ahead of ADP, to ensure RosterWatch nation is drafting him. Even if Sermon sneaks into the fifth round, he is a player worth reaching for. 

 

David Montgomery RB Chicago (ADP 40 Overall, RB20)

Montgomery has been considered a fantasy football consultation prize ever since he was drafted in 2019. Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs have been heralded as the crown jewels of that RB class. D-Mont opened a lot of eyes with his epic run from weeks 12-17 when he won you the fantasy football championship. Montgomery finished as THE RB1 over the most important stretch of the season. Critics of Montgomery will claim he had an “easy schedule” and that pass catching RB Tarik Cohen was injured. All of that may be true, but David Montgomery actually did it. When mobile rookie QB Justin Fileds takes over as the starter, this should only benefit Montgomery’s efficiency. His early fourth round ADP bakes in the risk, and RosterWatch can endorse jumping ahead of that ADP to secure him.