NFL Week 7 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
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The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions.

 

LA Chargers vs Kansas City

Predicted Score: LAC 23.72 | KC 25.28

Home Spread: -5.50

Value Index: 3.94

Pick: LAC

Efficiency in Scoring and Passing Attack

• LAC’s offense has been more efficient in both scoring and passing than KC’s defense has been in stopping opponents. LAC averages 25.4 points per game (ranked #7) and 259.0 pass yards per game (ranked #5) with a high completion percentage of 68.85% (#6). In contrast, KC’s defense allows an average of 24.5 points per game (ranked #23) and 289.0 pass yards per game (#32). The discrepancy in ranks suggests that LAC might find success in exploiting KC’s weaker pass defense.

Strong Red Zone Performance:

• LAC has been formidable when they get into the red zone, scoring a touchdown 65% of the time, ranking them at #5. KC’s defense, on the other hand, ranks at #12, allowing a 50% TD scoring rate in the red zone. This suggests that once LAC gets close to the endzone, they’re more likely to capitalize with touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.

Sacking and Pressuring the Quarterback:

• LAC’s defense boasts an impressive sack percentage, sacking the opposing quarterback in 10.05% of dropbacks, which ranks them at #3 in the league. On the other side, while KC’s offense has been good at protecting their QB with a sacked percentage of 2.54% (#1), the high pressure from LAC’s defensive front could challenge this protection and potentially force mistakes or hurried throws.
  

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Green Bay vs Denver

Predicted Score: GB 21.32 | DEN 22.55

Home Spread: 1.00

Value Index: 2.23

Pick: DEN

Rushing Advantage for Denver:

• DEN’s Rushing Offense vs. GB’s Rushing Defense: Denver averages 4.9 yards per rush, ranking them 4th in the league, while Green Bay’s defense allows 4.3 yards per rush, placing them at the 20th spot. Given Denver’s strength in rushing and Green Bay’s middling rush defense, Denver might have a substantial edge in the ground game, enabling them to control the game’s tempo and clock.

Denver’s Offensive Efficiency:

• Points Per Play (PPP): Denver’s offense scores at a rate of 0.387 PPP (8th in the league). In contrast, Green Bay’s defense allows 0.328 PPP, ranking them 17th. While Green Bay’s defense isn’t the weakest in this area, Denver’s offensive efficiency is higher, suggesting they could be consistently moving the ball and scoring.

Potential Passing Opportunities for Denver:

• DEN’s Passing Offense vs. GB’s Passing Defense: Denver achieves 6.5 yards per pass (15th in the league). This is against a Green Bay defense that allows 6.0 yards per pass, placing them 9th in pass defense. While GB’s defense is fairly robust here, Denver’s passing game is decently efficient and could exploit matchups, especially given the fact that Green Bay’s defense ranks 18th in completion percentage allowed at 66.05%.
  

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Pittsburgh vs LA Rams

Predicted Score: PIT 18.02 | LAR 22.59

Home Spread: -3.00

Value Index: 1.58

Pick: LAR

LAR’s Dominant Passing Game vs. PIT’s Vulnerable Passing Defense:

• LAR’s Passing Offense: The Rams rank 6th in passing yards per game with 258.8 and achieve 6.8 yards per pass (9th in the league).
• PIT’s Passing Defense: The Steelers allow 245.6 passing yards per game, which is 25th in the league. They also rank 21st, giving up 6.7 yards per pass. This suggests that LAR’s strong passing offense can exploit the PIT’s weaker passing defense, potentially leading to significant gains through the air.

Rushing Edge for LAR:

• LAR’s Rushing Offense: The Rams average 4.2 yards per rush, placing them 14th in the league, and achieve 108.2 rush yards per game (17th rank).
• PIT’s Rushing Defense: The Steelers allow 143.8 rush yards per game, which makes them 29th in the league in this metric. They also give up an average of 4.8 yards per rush (27th rank). This disparity indicates that the Rams have a favorable matchup on the ground, where they can control the tempo and gain significant yardage.

LAR’s Overall Offensive Efficiency vs. PIT’s Struggling Offense:

• LAR’s Offense: The Rams are 7th in total yards per game with 367.0 and achieve 5.6 yards per play (7th rank).
• PIT’s Offense: The Steelers are only managing 268.2 combined yards per game (27th rank) and have a meager 5.7 yards per pass (26th rank) and 3.4 yards per rush (27th rank). Given this, LAR’s overall offensive efficiency and balance look much more potent compared to the struggling Steelers’ offense.