NFL Week 9 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
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The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions.

Washington Football Team (WAS) at New England Patriots (NE)

Combo Score (WAS): 18.47

Combo Score (NE): 19.90

Spread (Home – NE): -3.5

Value Index: 2.07

Pick: Washington Football Team (WAS)

• Red Zone Efficiency Overpowers Defensive Flaws: WAS ranks 8th in Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD) at 61.54%, indicating a high level of efficiency in converting red zone trips into touchdowns. This proficiency is crucial in close games where each trip to the red zone can make the difference between winning and losing. Their ability to capitalize on these opportunities can offset their defensive shortcomings, especially since their defense ranks 12th in Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD), suggesting they are better at preventing touchdowns in the red zone than the overall numbers might indicate.
• Passing Game Prowess: WAS has the highest Pass Play Percentage at 68.70% and is ranked 4th in Passes/Game, highlighting a pass-heavy offensive strategy. This could be particularly effective against NE’s defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Interception Thrown Percentage, showing a weakness in intercepting the ball. WAS’s 12th ranked Completion Percentage (66.88%) combined with a relatively high number of passing yards per game (233.8) suggests that their aerial attack is robust enough to exploit NE’s pass defense vulnerabilities.
• Turnover Potential: Despite WAS’s average turnover margin, they rank 11th in Takeaways/Game, showing a proclivity for forcing turnovers. This propensity for takeaways is particularly pertinent against NE’s offense, which has a higher propensity for giveaways with a rank of 23rd in Giveaways/Game and is ranked 29th in TO Margin/Game. The ability of WAS to potentially shift the momentum with turnovers may give them additional scoring opportunities and control of the game flow.

Dallas Cowboys (DAL) at Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)

Combo Score (DAL): 19.77

Combo Score (PHI): 26.90

Spread (Home – PHI): -3.0

Value Index: 4.13

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)

• Superior Offensive Production: PHI’s offense ranks higher in key statistical categories when compared to DAL’s defense. PHI has the 3rd best offense in both points per game and total yards, indicating they have a consistently high-scoring and versatile attack. This could put pressure on DAL’s defense, which, despite being 4th in points allowed, may struggle to contain PHI’s dynamic offense.
• PHI’s 3rd Down Efficiency: PHI has the best 3rd down conversion percentage at 50%, suggesting they are adept at sustaining drives and could potentially exploit DAL’s 7th-ranked 3rd down defense. By maintaining possession and controlling the game tempo, PHI could limit DAL’s offensive opportunities and wear down their defense.
• Rushing Game Advantage: PHI’s rushing offense is strong, ranking 7th in yards per game and 6th in rushing touchdowns per game. This could be particularly effective against DAL’s defense that is less dominant against the run, ranked 18th in rushing yards allowed per game and 15th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game.
• PHI’s Defense against the Rush: On the other side of the ball, PHI’s defense is the best in the league at stopping the run, which could neutralize one of DAL’s key offensive strategies, as they rank 7th in rush play percentage. By stifling DAL’s ground game, PHI could force DAL into a more one-dimensional passing attack, playing into the strength of PHI’s defensive playmakers.
• Red Zone Scoring and Defensive Takeaways: DAL is weak in the red zone, with only a 40.74% touchdown rate, ranking 29th. PHI’s defense, despite its weaknesses, could make critical stands in the red zone, forcing field goals or creating turnover opportunities.
• Turnover Potential: DAL’s defense leads the league in interception percentage, but PHI’s offense has been careful with the ball, with a better ranking in giveaways per game than DAL’s offense. PHI’s defense, while not stellar at takeaways, faces a DAL offense that is middle-of-the-pack in interception percentage. PHI could exploit any mistakes by DAL’s quarterback, given the high-pressure environment of the red zone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) at Houston Texans (HOU)

Combo Score (TB): 22.25

Combo Score (HOU): 20.53

Spread (Home – HOU): -2.5

Value Index: 4.22

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Strong Turnover Margin for Tampa Bay: TB has the best turnover margin in the league at +1.1 per game, which is a critical aspect of football success. They excel at taking the ball away with 2.0 takeaways per game and have a low number of giveaways at 0.9 per game. This could be a significant advantage as HOU has a giveaway rate of 0.6, which is low, but their takeaway rate is also lower at 1.3. If TB’s defense can force HOU to turn the ball over, they can capitalize on those extra possessions given their efficiency in this aspect.
• Weakness in Houston’s Third-Down Defense: HOU’s defense struggles on third down, ranking 27th in the league, allowing a 44.33% conversion rate. This could be exploited by TB’s offense, which is in the middle of the pack on third-down conversions. By sustaining drives and keeping HOU’s defense on the field, TB could tire out the defense and improve their chances of scoring, especially considering TB’s reasonable success on fourth down with a 66.67% conversion rate.
• Tampa Bay’s Red Zone Defense: TB has the number one ranked red zone defense, allowing a touchdown only 27.27% of the time. This is a significant stat because even if HOU manages to move the ball, TB’s defense can clamp down in the red zone and force field goals, which are worth less than touchdowns. This could be crucial in a tight game where every point matters. Additionally, with HOU’s offense ranking 26th in red zone touchdown percentage, there’s an evident opportunity for TB to halt scoring attempts.