2016 Rookie RB Landing Spots Primer: Rounds 1-4

alex bylineThe NFL draft has passed and the fantasy stars of tomorrow now know where they’ll be spending the first parts of their respective careers. Here, we’ll take a look at the running backs taken in the first four rounds and give a small primer regarding our line of thinking as we begin construction on V.1 of the world-famous RosterWatch Cheat Sheet for Dynasty Rookie Drafts:

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(Player, Team, Round Selected, NFL Comps)
***Players listed in order of where they were taken, not in order of ranking.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (1st) Comps: Edgerrin James, Frank Gore, LaDainian Tomlinson

– The best runner in the draft and an autopick at 1.01 in dynasty leagues of all formats. Elliott is not only extremely dynasty relevant given this landing spot, he’s immediately redraft-relevant and we’ll likely be starting at a late-first/early-second round ADP to secure his services by the time August rolls around.

Derrick Henry, Titans (2nd) Comps: Arian Foster, Brandon Jacobs, Eddie George, DeMarco Murray

– I have a feeling your boys at RW are going to have much different opinions of Henry in dynasty than many of our competitors in the space — which certainly isn’t to be unexpected at this point if you’ve followed us for long enough. We don’t do all the work we do to listen to what anyone else says. This is a good spot for Henry and we still consider him a mid-first round pick in dynasty. Demarco Murray is basically on a two-year deal, the line(s) are being rebuilt and strengthened, Marcus Mariota should be coming into his own as an NFL QB around the time Henry takes the reins, and we’ve seen no evidence that the club has any faith in Bishop Sankey and/or David Cobb. We’re not sure we’re on the Charlie Casserly bandwagon of believing Henry will take the job from Murray by the end of 2015, but we’re closer to being on board than most. In redraft, he’ll be a must-own handcuff with huge upside for anyone considering selecting Demarco Murray.

Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (3rd) Comps: Charles Sims, Reggie Bush

– What a horrible pick this was by the Dolphins. It’s not that we hate Drake, but it was too early for a player who’s limited in so many ways. First, he’s a change-of-pace guy who the team will have to utilize in special spots to spell Jay Ajayi, likely third downs. The problem with chalking Drake up as an outstanding third-down back based on his electricity in the open field as a receiver and runner with the ball in his hands is his utter lack of ability (or even care presumably) to protect the passer as a blocker. He was the worst we’ve ever seen in this aspect at the Senior Bowl. Unless we hear glowing reviews from camp, we won’t be going out of our way to get Drake on our squads in most formats. His one saving grace is that being picked this early shows the team intends to use him right off the bat.

CJ Prosise, Seahawks (3rd) Comps: Tevin Coleman, David Johnson

– A Trashman favorite, we compare Prosise to a Tevin Coleman or David Johnson-type much because of his natural ability to receive the football and his background as a WR. The Seahawks’ selection of Alex Collins in the 5th round muddies up the platoon a bit when considering workload splits between the two rookies and incumbent starter Thomas Rawls (who is still not recovered from 2015 ankle injury) but we have enough faith in Prosise to believe we’d be comfortable coming out of the first round of rookie drafts having landed him assuming we’re picking toward the back of the pack.

Kenneth Dixon, Ravens (4th) Comps: Andre Ellington, Ronnie Hillman

– Dixon was a player we wanted to love at the Senior Bowl but just couldn’t. What we ended up was liking him. As a function of lack of other options, Dixon is on the RW 2016 All-Senior Bowl roster, so he does have some redeeming qualities and did not look out of place in Mobile which is always important. The issue we worry about is his hand-size and fumbles in college as well as a Latavius Murray-like penchant for going down too easily on first contact. If the issues persist, they will most certainly keep him off the field in Baltimore. Justin Forsett’s deal is coming to an end, though and Lorenzo Taliaferro sucks, leaving a door basically wide-open for Dixon to come in and stamp a ticket to workhorse-of-the-future duties. However, we love Buck Allen and think that he could be in line for some nice things in 2015 himself. While we like Dixon, we aren’t in love with him at this very early juncture. His presence, to us, is most important in representing a possible pain-point in Buck Allen owners which we can exploit. If the Buck Allen owner in your league is willing to part ways with Allen for a discount given the Ravens selection of Dixon, that’s a trade we’d make happen.

Devontae Booker, Broncos (4th) Comps: Arian Foster, Joique Bell

– One of the better landing spots of anyone in the draft, Booker is another player we’ll have to consider as being a first-round pick in dynasty and possibly an important handcuff/flier in redraft. We know that the Broncos will be returning to a run-game that is more C.J. Anderson-centric, which is good for Broncos fans because Ronnie Hillman sucks. Booker ran at times in college like a Doug Martin “ball of hate” and we like him. While it’s not a situation where the rookie can seemingly come in and win a job, it is one where we can see Booker becoming at least a relatively significant part of the platoon, which — in an offense that will be without a reliable QB — represents at least some value in fantasy.

Deandre Washington, Raiders (4th) Comps: Ameer Abdullah, Darren Sproles

– Latavius Murray is awful and we were beyond surprised that GM Reggie McKenzie addressed the RB position by selecting what seems to be a complement to Murray in Washington as opposed to a replacement for him. Either way, Washington comes in and immediately become basically everything the Raiders had hoped Roy Helu would be as a free-agent signing in 2015 which gives him value. We’re confident in two things: 1) That, if given 10-13 touches a game (some via the passing game), Washington will be PPR-relevant given his game-breaking ability and 2) that the run-game featuring Murray will stall at times in 2016 even given the tremendous improvement of the Raiders O-line. Putting all these things together, it follows that we should not overlook Washington in our dynasty leagues. He’ll likely be a boom-or-bust-type flex-play, but so are numerous other fantasy commodities.

Tyler Ervin, Texans (4th) Comps: David Wilson

– We didn’t like the pick by the Texans, but you have to hand it to them, they drafted speed and players who might be able to put new QB Brock Osweiler in the best position possible time after time. To us, this smells like a way to get a jitterbug back in the mix to spell Lamar Miller and help out on special teams. We’re not interested in Ervin at this early juncture unless we’re in a league with a premium on special teams production.

NEXT: 2016 Rookie RB Landing Spots Primer: Rounds 5 and After

2 Comments

  1. As a Raiders fan, I really want to like Latavius Murray, but he’s not as good as I was hoping when he was moved to the primary back spot. I think Washington is intriguing, but I was really hoping Reggie would make a move to get Devontae Booker. The kid has talent and he’s from Northern Cali, so it would have been great to have him in Silver and Black. I didn’t understand moving up to grab Connor Cook (a luxury pick), instead of a potential impact player at another position (RB or one of the defensive players that were falling). I do love Reggie though, so I am optimistic.

  2. Reggie has done a 180 as a GM from his first two years but we’re right in the same boat with you brother about the RB situation.

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