2013 Fantasy Football Draft Intelligence: Top 15 QB Points Distribution Study
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

There are no shortage of quarterback options in 2013 Fantasy Football Leagues. We recommend drafting one of the Top 15 QBs listed below. It’s a deep group. It’s a good group.

When we refer to somebody as “average” in a particular category- that is “average” among what we consider a strong pool. I guess you can say that “average” really means “not bad” or even “pretty solid” here.

Quarterback value is the marching order in your Fantasy Football Draft this season. Whether it be Aaron Rodgers in the second round- or Mike Vick in the eleventh or twelfth with the intention of grabbing a waiver-wire backup with upside.

Here, we have dissected the Top 15 quarterbacks in a way that no other website has or does.

Below is an analysis of the exact fantasy point distribution of each quarterback in 2012 and over the last three years. We produce this data because we believe that winning is a combination of upside and reliability. To gauge that we have to evaluate how individual players deliver their fantasy production:

Aaron Rodgers
– Elite reliability
– Elite upside
– Scores 15+ pt 75% of the time
– Scores 25+ pt 50% of the time

Drew Brees
– Elite reliability
– Near elite uspide
– Stock up w/ return of Sean Payton
– Rodgers is the better value just a few picks earlier

Peyton Manning
– Elite reliability
– Above average upside
– Stock up w/ the addition of Wes Welker

Cam Newton
– Above average to elite reliability
– Elite upside
– Scores 20+ pt 50% of the time

Tom Brady
– Elite reliability
– Above average upside
– Has never scored less than 10 pt. over the last 3yr
– Stock moderately down- receiver overhaul

Matt Ryan
– Above average reliability
– Above average upside
– A Peyton Manning-like scoring profile

Colin Kaepernick
– Elite reliability
– Limited upside in 2012
– Tightly distributed scoring in 2012
– Scored 15-20 pt 75% of the time

Matt Stafford
– Above average reliability
– Above average upside
– Calvin Johnson
– A Drew Brees-like scoring profile
– Stock up w/ addition of Reggie Bush and a healthy Ryan Broyles

Andrew Luck
– Above average reliability
– Slightly above average upside in 2012
– 16.56 median in 2012

RG3
– Near elite reliability
– Elite upside
– Aaron Rodgers-like scoring profile
– Stock moderately down coming off of ACL reconstruction

Russell Wilson
– Average reliability
– Above average upside
– Evenly distributed scoring
– 17.63 median 2012

Tony Romo
– Average to above average reliability
– Above average upside
– 16.64 median in 2012

Eli Manning:
– Average to slightly below average reliability
– Limited upside
– Scores over 20+ 37.5% of the time

Big Ben
– Average reliability
– Average upside
– 17.16 pt median in 2012

Mike Vick
– Above average reliability
– Above average upside 3yr
– No upside in 2012
– Moderate outlook under Chip Kelly based on training camp observations