2015 Offensive Line Rankings and Fantasy Football Impact: NFC South
Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line was the bane of many a fantasy owner’s existence. It was a reminder to us all of just how integral an offense’s ability to dominate the line of scrimmage is to the fantasy fortunes of even the most talented skill players.
The quality of each team’s offensive line should be taken into account when making all fantasy draft decisions. At the very least, these evaluations should serve as tie-breakers when choosing between two prospects who appear to be of similar draft value.
Of course, a lot can change over an offseason due to free agency and the NFL Draft. Here, we examine the offensive line outlooks by division for 2015. In honor of the Bucs dreaded offensive line performance in 2014, we kick this series off with the NFC South:
1. New Orleans Saints
This is great news for Drew Brees, and the running game in New Orleans. They have quickly turned what was an apparent weakness into a strength. The Saints were poor pass-protectors and just average run-blockers in 2014. Pass-blocking is obviously a huge concern for the Saints pass-first offense – and a QB who used to throw for 5,000 yards in his sleep. What appears to be a transition to a more balanced offense should also provide some relief. New Orleans drafted monster OT Andrus Peat in Round 1 who will likely play OG in 2015, but also provides flexibility to play OT in the case of an injury. They also nabbed Pro Bowl C Max Unger in the Jimmy Graham trade with Seattle. Graham was a always a poor blocker, while Unger was a Top 5 center in 2014 – and a tremendous run blocker. In his second year, monstrous small school OT Terron Armstead graded positively as a run and pass-blocker. Pro Football Focus considered him a Top 32 OT in 2014. The Saints should expect more growth in year three. Armstead’s bookend at RT, Zach Strief, graded out even better as a Top 20 OT in 2014. He was a good run-blocker and an above-average pass-protector. The aforementioned addition of Max Unger will kick former center and adept run-blocker Tim Lelito to guard. OG Jahri Evans will likely move to the bench. He was a horrendous pass-blocker last season, but was a very good run-blocker. He provides nice veteran depth, and gives the team some much-needed flexibility along the offensive line. This is a group that looks like it should be able to protect Drew Brees on the wings in 2015 while also shaping up as a formidable run-blocking unit, which should pay dividends for Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and CJ Spiller.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Much like the Saints, the Bucs made the offensive line a priority this offseason. But, not for their aging Hall of Fame quarterback – instead, for their prized rookie signal caller Jameis Winston. We aren’t ready to say they have turned the offensive line into a strength, but we are certain they will be much improved. The line was abysmal in 2014, and it cost fantasy owners dearly. Pro Football Focus rated Tampa Bay as nearly the worst pass-blocking team in the whole league last season. The team started by releasing free-agent bust, OT Anthony Collins, who was dreadful in 2014, while drafting OT Donovan Smith at the Top of RD2 and OG Ali Marpet a bit later. Smith is a monster of a man who played well against NFL caliber competition at the Senior Bowl. He’ll compete with Demar Dotson, who was the teams best pass-protector in 2014, in an attempt to solidify Jameis Winston’s blind side. Smith has the chance to also become a formidable run-blocking OT. Last year’s trade for OG Logan Mankins didn’t have quite the impact the team expected, but he graded fairly respectably and now gets a second year in the system under his belt. Mankins has historically been a good player, albeit likely a declining one. The Bucs will become proficient at running to the left side if Smith gets the nod at LT, while potentially kicking Dotson to RT to solidify the wing because incumbent RT Kevin Pamphile was horrendous in pass-protection last season. Either Smith or Dotson will take his job. At center, Evan Dietrich-Smith left a lot to be desired in pass-protection, but was arguably the team’s best run-blocker in 2014. RG Patrick Omameh was a complete disaster in 2014, and the team is hoping small-school maven and Senior Bowl standout Ali Marpet can take his job and improve the position. The Bucs offensive line has the opportunity to be much less offensive in 2015 – in both pass-protection and in the run game. We feel a lot more confident with this unit and expect it to pay off for all fantasy relevant players in Tampa in 2015.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Per Pro Football Focus, Atlanta was middle-of-the-road in pass-protection in 2014 collectively and in the bottom five run-blocking. It’s the implementation of the patented Shanahan zone-blocking scheme that appears to be the biggest improvement – not the personnel. The team drafted OT Jake Rodgers in Round 7, who has upside but can’t be counted on just yet as he has plenty of work to do to climb the depth chart. In free agency, Thomas Dimitroff (Or was it Scott Pioli? Or, was it Dann Quinn?) inked OT Mike Person who has never started a game, but at 299 pounds he fits the athletic mold that Shanny Jr. prefers. RT Ryan Schraeder was the best pass-blocker on the roster last year, albeit mediocre in run-game, he should return as a starter. At RG Jon Asamoah graded out at as a Top 25 OG per PFF. The duo shapes up as a decent right side, but it leaves something to be desired in run game. Center Joe Hawley is also a decent pass-blocker, yet a below-average run-blocker who also appears to fit the mold at 297 pounds. Theoretically, the change in scheme should benefit the relatively light trio of 300-pounders. LG Harland Gunn was one of the only good run-blockers on the team in 2014, however he did have issues as a pass-protector. The sixth overall pick of the 2014 Draft, LT Jake Matthews was PFFs worst-ranked offensive tackle in 2014. He ranked 84th as a horrendous pass and run-blocker as a rookie. He is currently recovering from a dreaded Lisfranc injury and has yet to resume practicing. Much of the success of this group will be contingent upon Matthews improvement in year two. Falcons fans must hope his pedigree comes to fruition. Another formerly highly touted draft pick for GM Thomas Dimitroff and his shitty spotty personnel record, OG Peter Konz, was average in pass-protection, yet a complete disaster in the run-game. Konz is currently recovering from a torn ACL. It seems the team may very well have to rely on OG/OT Sam Baker, who is coming off of injured reserve due to the torn patellar tendon he was recovering from last season. He was average at best in 2012 and 2013, but he was a Round 1 pick in 2008. It’s not looking great for Atlanta this season. We expect an average unit at best. Falcons faithful will have to pray the new scheme alleviates many of the issues in the running game.
4. Carolina Panthers
GM Dave Gettleman is going to have to pull his big-boy pants way up for this one, maybe even over his eyes and ears. Per PFF, in 2014, Carolina was the worst pass-blocking team in the league and was bottom-third in run blocking. The remedy? Why of course – sign OTs Jonathan Martin and Michael Oher. Look, we know and respect that Gettleman is a frugal thrift-shopper, but he was really dumpster-diving with those signings. Oher has been absolutely abysmal on all fronts for at least three years now. He couldn’t stick with Baltimore or Tennessee, and Jonathan Martin has been equally as bad and Richie Incognito thinks he’s a sissy. We know the Panthers desperately wanted a first-round tackle this year, but a thin class and an early run by other OL-needy teams resulted in a big, white-cotton wedgie for Gettleman. Fortunately, OT Byron Bell, who graded out as the worst OL on the team, is gone and rookie OG/OT Daryl Williams is in. He was a fourth round pick in this year’s NFL Draft and is considered to be a strong run-blocker. Impending RT Mike Remmers has very little playing experience and has been average at best when he has played. RG Trai Turner was solid in pass protection, and an average run-blocker in 2014 – he was PFFs #23 overall OG. Center Ryan Kalil was pitiful in pass-protection, but was very formidable as a run-blocker in 2014. He was PFFs #11 overall center for the season. LG Andrew Norwell had positive run and pass-blocking grades in 2014, and may have been the teams best best-overall offensive lineman. The interior of portion of this unit has the potential to be pretty good in the run-game, however Carolina may very well have the worst combo of pass-blocking centers and offensive tackles in the league – which could spell more trouble for Cam Newton’s development as a passer. Luckily, the pass-rushers in this division are lackluster. Newton’s mobility will be key here, as will the big bodies of wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. We see the brightest outlook as it relates to the Panthers offensive line for Jonathan Stewart, and potentially rookie Cameron Artis-Payne if/when Jonathan Stewart goes down. Fantasy owners may see Cam’s redzone prowess back on the uptick this season, out of necessity.