2015 Salary Cap and Free Agency Overview: NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
Currently, projected at $25M in Salary Cap space for 2015 (per Overthecap.com)
Notable Free Agents: Kevin Williams, James Carpenter, Tarvaris Jackson, Byron Maxwell, Ricardo Lockette (RFA), Jermaine Kearse (RFA)
Potential Salary Cap Casualties, Candidates for Re-structures, and/or Extenions: RB Marshawn Lynch is in the final year of his contract at $8.5M with $7M in cap space available if he were released (all indications are there will be an extension for Beast Mode), DT Brandon Mebane is in the final year of his contract with the entirety of his $5.7M cap figure available to be cleared if he were released, DT Tony McDaniel could be released in a move to alleviate almost all of his $3.6M off the cap, TE Zach Miller appears destined to be released in order to clear almost $2.5M in cap space, LB Bobby Wagner enters the final year of his contract at a hair over $1M – he’s a near-lock to land a big extension this offseason, the exact same goes for QB Russell Wilson and his sub-$1M cap figure for 2015, either Wagner or Russell may be forced to play the season out and become a candidate for the franchise tag.
Notes: Like his mentor in Green Bay, Ted Thompson, GM John Schneider has managed to put together one of the very best rosters in the NFL without being completely hamstrung financially. Seattle will need to do their usual bang-up job evaluating rookie talent in the 2015 NFL Draft in order to fill some of the holes that will be left by the veterans who will be released to clear space for Wilson and Wagner (and possibly Marshawn’s raise).
San Francisco 49ers
Currently, projected to have $1.3M in available Salary Cap space for 2015
Notable Free Agents: Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Brandon Lloyd, Perish Cox, Chris Culliver
Potential Salary Cap Casualties, Candidates for Re-structures, and/or Extenions: DE/OLB Aldon Smith is in the final year of his contract with nearly a $10M cap figure and no dead money associated with a cut – if the Niners want a discount they extend him now but if they aren’t quite sold he’s turned over a new leaf or not, they’ll let him play the season out. If they’ve already jumped ship, they will try to trade him. LB Patrick Willis has an $8M cap figure that provides over $7M in cap relief if he were cut, LB Navarro Bowman could be released post 6/1 to alleviate $5M in cap space, TE Vernon Davis will almost certainly be out in a move to clear $5M for free agency, WR Anquan Boldin is a lock to be restructured- he hits the books for $7M this year but only $2M the following three years – likely some of that money will be shifted around to clear cap space for free agency. He could also be cut post 6/1 to clear $6M but we find that unlikely. DE Justin Smith could be released to clear over $4M in cap space on his $6M salary, WR Stevie Johnson won’t be getting his $6M salary this season – he’ll either take a pay cut or BE cut.
Notes: What seemed like almost too deep of a position group last year, the WR corps, is now in complete flux. It could become a bargain return of a sneaky talented trio, if GM Trent Baalke gets his way with Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, and Stevie Johnson during offseason negotiations. Otherwise, it may be an entirely different group of pass-catchers taking the field in 2015. We typically hate Michael Crabtree, and view him as completely overrated – however we think he’ll be cheap on the free agent market for a number of reasons. If that is the case, it will be in the Niners best interest to retain him. If they don’t, at 27 years old, Crabtree could be a steal for the right team on the open market. Likewise, we believe Vernon Davis could have a career revival in another city. With the emergence of rookie stud LB Chris Borland, the 49ers will have the luxury of waiting until after June 1st to gauge Navarro Bowman’s health. At that point, we believe Baalke will strongly consider moving on from either Bowman or Patrick Willis in order to sign the incoming rookies.
Arizona Cardinals
Currently, projected at a $10M Salary Cap deficit for 2015
Notable Free Agents: Antonio Cromartie, John Abraham, Dan Williams, Tommy Kelly, Larry Foote, Jonathan Dwyer, Rob Housler, Ryan Lindley, Sam Acho
Potential Salary Cap Casualties, Candidates for Re-structures, and/or Extenions: WR Larry Fitzgerald has $23.6M cap figure – but the Cardinals could release him after 6/1 to clear over $16M in cap space and sign their whole rookie class. CB Patrick Peterson accounts for almost $15M in 2015 but oddly after recently signing a big deal he could be cut after 6/1 to clear almost $12M in cap space, DE Calais Campbell is due $15M the next two years, a contract extension with a reduced annual figure should be in the works, QB Carson Palmer will be approached in an attempt to reduce his $14M cap figure. He can be cut post 6/1 for huge cap relief. At 33, in the final year of his contract, DE Darnell Dockett can be cut at anytime to create $7M in cap space – we believe he’ll either take an extension that’s favorable to the team’s economics or he very well may be a cap casualty.
Notes: Expect a game of financial chicken between the Cardinals and Carson Palmer this offseason. Depending on how comfortable Bruce Arians is with Drew Stanton (we believe pretty comfortable – probably too comfortable) it can be argued that Arizona’s QB situation is so dire that Palmer has all the leverage. On the other hand, Arizona can threaten a post-June 1 release to clear over $10M of cap space – which would severely limit Palmer’s other options to play (and get paid) that late in the offseason after most rosters are set. Pro Football Focus ranked Patrick Peterson the #69 overall CB in 2014, and while we don’t always believe that PFF’s rankings meet the eye ball test, and are often times somewhat cockamamie – it highlights our long-time theory that Peterson is wildly overrated, not as an athlete, but as a defensive back. Hey, we’ll at least give him credit for being a lot better than #69 overall, though. Given the terms of Peterson’s contract, GM Steve Keim should put a figurative gun to his head this offseason and say “$15M, No Can Do”. Nobody else will pay Peterson $15M either, especially after 6/1.
St. Louis Rams
Currently, projected at a $1M Salary Cap Deficit in 2015
Notable Free Agents: Shaun Hill, Davin Joseph, Kenny Britt, Austin Davis, Lance Kendricks, Joseph Barksdale
Potential Salary Cap Casualties, Candidates for Re-structures, and/or Extenions: QB Sam Bradford can be cut at anytime to clear $13M of cap space from his $16M cap figure, DE Chris Long has two years left on his contract at approximately $13M/yr – he may be approached for an extension and some additional breathing room under the cap, OT Jake Long will almost certainly be cut to clear $8M-$9M in cap space, DT Kendall Langford can be cut to clear $6M in cap space- the Rams can’t spend all of their money on the defensive line. C Scott Wells may also be a candidate for release to clear another $4M.
Notes: It’s going to be difficult for the Rams to significantly improve their roster this offseason. They have a good young roster, and really just have to figure the QB situation out. Unfortunately, there won’t be much supply that represents an upgrade. St. Louis doesn’t currently have cap space, but they also don’t have many priority or high-priced free agents. If they release players, or make contract maneuvers it will be in order to be aggressive in free agency – and with no elite QB’s available – that may not even happen. It’s shaping up to be a quiet offseason in St. Louis. Which, to the dismay of their fans, may mean the team isn’t much better in 2015.