2018 RB Fantasy Scoring Distribution: Busts and Monsters Tool

alex bylineHere is a supplemental tool you can use for your 2018 draft research and preparation for the upcoming redraft season. The tool is a simple one: it calculates and gives a visualization of the frequency with which a fantasy player either had a monster game or an awful one for fantasy purposes.

PRO MEMBERS: Click here to head to the downloads section and check out the tool.

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The tool is color-coded from white (the worst) to dark green (the best) and is sorted by early 2018 ADP. For the purposes of the tool, a “bust” in standard leagues is a score of anything less than 7 points while a monster is any score over 20. For PPR, the parameters are anything under 10 points being labeled as a bust while monsters are considered any output over 25. A few notes on the tool:

– No rookies are included as we do not have an NFL sample to use for fantasy points scored, obviously.

– Among veterans, the last two years of data (all games, including Week 17 and NFL playoffs when applicable) are taken into consideration. For players who only have one season of NFL data on the books, only that season was taken into consideration.

– You’ll notice some players have a star(*) next to their name in the sheet. For these players, a special set of data was taken that did not include all games in the same way the others did. Those players for the purposes of this tool are:

David Johnson: Lone 2017 start not taken into consideration; 2015 games only taken into consideration post-Week 12 when he eclipsed the 8-carry mark to ascend to similar volume as he received the following year.

Jerick McKinnon: Only 2017 starts post-Week 4 were taken into consideration following the injury to Dalvin Cook.

Kenyan Drake: Only 2017 starts post-Week 8 were taken into consideration following the departure of Jay Ajayi.

Jay Ajayi: Only 2017 starts post-Week 8 were taken into consideration following his arrival in Philadelphia.

Marshawn Lynch: Only 2017 starts were taken into consideration as a Raider.

Rex Burkhead: Only 2017 starts were taken into consideration as a Patriot.

9 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By icepick16

    I have Kamara as a keeper in round 16 and the 1.01 10tm/std. Would you guys condone taking Gronk with the 3.01 or reaching for Kelce or Ertz if Gronk goes early to make sure i don’t get stuck with the drop off tight ends? Or should I stock up on RBs and WRs until the later rounds?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      Definitely use the cheat sheet, but there are spots in the third round where we feel Kelce is an excellent option.

  2. ↓ Post By rw-FUPA

    Great tool Alex. Alarming how large of a disparity there is in bust % for RB’s and WR’s in a standard scoring format. With the exception of some select WR’s like AB, makes you wonder why you’d ever commit sizable draft capital to a position that is so susceptible to busting.

  3. ↓ Post By festerjm_2000@yahoo.com

    i pick 5th in a full point PPR. we draft 2 qbs, 3 rbs, 3 wr, 2 te, 2 kickers, 2 def, and a flex…suggestions who to choose first? Qb or rb/wr. (qb does get 6pts for Tds)

    1. ↓ Post By Bukiz666@gmail.com

      Drafting 5th…go for Kamara…..then you’ll have to see how the board plays out

  4. ↓ Post By Bukiz666@gmail.com

    Drafting 5th…go for Kamara…..then you’ll have to see how the board plays out

    1. ↓ Post By Bukiz666@gmail.com

      2nd round you can go QB

  5. ↓ Post By tdelb

    Question for auction/keeper league.
    I can keep 2 at listed value less $200 budget (12 team PPR/18 players per team)
    1) Keenan Allen $34
    2) Davante Adams $28
    3) Derrick Henry $8

  6. ↓ Post By Casey Sturm

    Any recommendations for start up dynasty auction drafts? Obviously dollar amounts/valuations will shift from redraft rankings to dynasty.

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