Bounce-Back Candidates
by Alan Seslowsky

There are many variables that can contribute to a disappointing fantasy season. A player going to a different team has to adjust to a new coach, offensive scheme, and QB. A player could have a nagging injury that hampers their performance. Lack of practice time to develop team chemistry is another reason for failure. Many times, when drafting, we correctly assess a player’s talent but don’t properly account for some variables that result in poor performance. Below is a list of players that RosterWatch believes can bounce back in 2020.

AJ Green (WR- Cincinnati)

We all know the story with AJ Green. He provides elite-level production when healthy. The last time Green played a full season was in 2017. Entering his age 32 season there are reasons to be dubious of AJ Green – however, the case for a Green bounce back is easy to see: 

• Presumably, the Bengals will draft pro-ready Joe Burrow to upgrade the QB position 
• 2019 first-round pick, offensive tackle Jonah Williams makes his debut; upgrading the offensive line 
• RB Joe Mixon, who is in his prime, finished 2019 strong. His dual-threat skill set should keep defenses honest

 AJ Green’s 7th round ADP fairly prices in his risk. RosterWatch is very interested in even a slightly tempered-down portion of AJ Green’s previously massive upside. 

 

Derrius Guice (RB Washington) 

Every time he has had the opportunity to play, Guice flashes electric upside as a runner (and a receiver in the screen game). Who can forget week 13 last year, against Carolina, when he rushed 10 times for 129 yards and two TDs? The issue has been his ability to stay on the field. Washington’s crowded running back room includes 35-year-old Adrian Peterson, “redshirt” 2nd year runner Bryce Love, and turd journeyman Peyton Barber. RosterWatch belives Guice is set up to lead this group in rushes. New Head Coach, Ron Rivera, already displayed a tendency to identify the running back that is head and shoulders above the rest and feature him; similar to Christian McCaffery in Carolina. Guice’s current ADP of 90 makes him a low-risk, high-reward option. 

 

Todd Gurley (RB Atlanta) 

Depending on where you drafted Todd Gurley in 2019 will determine if you view him as a bounce-back candidate. Last season, he was getting drafted in the late first round by some; others were able to secure him as a mid 3rd round pick. Gurley finished 2019 as the RB14 in PPR leagues. His current ADP is 28, the middle of round three. RosterWatch believes Gurley’s one-year contract and the current coaching/management regime’s need to win this season draws a straight-line connection to high usage in a good offense. For now, Gurley looks like a great value for best ball and redraft. Dynasty players need to view Gurley as more of a short-term solution at RB.

 

Kareem Hunt  (RB Cleveland) 

When Hunt came back from suspension last season, he scored double-digit fantasy points from weeks 10-15. Most of his value came in the passing game. The consensus view is that Nick Chubb will lead the Cleveland backfield in rush attempts. It is widely anticipated that Kareem Hunt will function more as a pass-catching specialist or high end backup. The addition of TE Austin Hooper, a high volume efficient pass catcher, could pose a threat to Hunt’s role, but his 6th round ADP is worth the investment for a player that has RB1 upside. He’s still Kareem Hunt.