PRO RosterWatch Week 10 DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet and Trend Tool Now Available
Week 10 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: DraftKings
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
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The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for DraftKings is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members. In addition to the cheat sheet, pro members also have access to our private “Trends” database (The KingsTool) to dig deeper into the slate and to find players who were left off the sheet. (See link to the private spreadsheet at the bottom of the page to access this week’s trend ratings).
HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?
THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.
THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.
Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.
THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).
HOW TO USE THE SHEET
Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.
Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.
The DraftKings Vegas Props Tool will be out late Saturday evening as always.
Click here to go to your profile page and download the DraftKings Cheat Sheet.
9 Comments
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Derrick Henry just became available on waivers. CJ Prosise is worth dropping for D Henry as a stash right?
I Thought about dropping Stafford (Flacco started for me Thu, so can’t drop him), but I need Stafford in the rest of the weeks. No QBs in waivers (14 tm league).
Prefer Henry as a stash to Prosise at this time yes. Prosise w/ nice intriguing immediate opportunity tho
I need some help 10 team non ppr standard scoring I have to start 3
Levon Bell, Carlos Hyde, Doug Martin, Deon Lewis, Devonte Booker.
Bell Booker Martin good luck
Advice on my flex this week. 10 team 1/2 ppr. Would you go Crowder, or Rob Kelly, or a potential showcase for Paul Perkins on Monday night?
Crowder gets the edge if no djax
Conundrum: Gurley, White, Procise, Adams, Crowder, JJ Nelson. Need an rb, 2 wr’s + a flex (need 4/6) .5ppr
Guys I really need this one…
Non ppr, one RB out of the following. Ware, Montgomery, Prosise, Perkins. Most rankings say Ware but Carolina D has been shutting RBs down and I’m not feeling it. I do have the “luxury” of waiting until tonight/Monday to see where I’m at with my opponent…if so, then it comes down to Prosise or Perkins (leaning Perkins). Can’t figure this one out man…help!
Made two lineups, entered about 10 contests, 100% cash rate. Lovin’ it.