Three Players Being Drafted in the Top 3 Rounds Who Will be Busts

These players are being drafted in the first 3 rounds of fantasy drafts, but they’re not going to provide value at current ADPs, so temper your expectations…

Antonio Gibson, Commanders
Believe it or not, even though he is going much later on UnderDog, the FantasyPros ADP consensus in .5 PPR managed leagues for Gibson is pick 36. The scuttlebutt out of Washington is that Gibson is going to be in between a rock and a hard place come season start, with Jd Mckissic taking away a multitude of receiving targets at one end and rookie bruiser Brian Robinson stealing goal line and short-yardage attempts on the other. Gibson is as talented a back as you’ll find in the NFL, but he’s constantly being stymied by nagging injuries, and the Commanders know that they need depth at the position to contend in a competitive NFC East. Why run one back with an injury history into the ground when you can spread the duties between three capable backs? Compared to guys like Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall, both of whom he’s being drafted ahead of currently, Gibson looks like somewhat of a bust.

AJ Brown, Eagles
Now I love Brown just as much as the next guy. He was a tour de force in Tennessee, averaging over 1,060 yards and 9 TDs his first 2 seasons there. 2021 was a bit of a letdown for Brown, but he only played 13 games that season. Now an Eagle, Brown is being drafted ahead of the likes of Mike Evans and Keenan Allen, and I think that’s a mistake. Brown is now part of an offensive unit that had a league low 45% pass rate over their last 9 games in 2021. This came about under the direction of OC Shane Steichen, who took over play calling duties from HC Nick Siriann midseason and will continue to call plays in 2022. Brown has this sort of game plan to contend with in addition to fellow marquee WR DeVonta Smith, who will undoubtedly siphon a large portion of the few targets there will be to go around. Brown will be good, but not as good as his ADP projects.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers
Samuel is going to be a bust primarily in relation to his 2021 self. There’s just no way that he’s going to rush for 8 TDs on the ground, with a big, run capable QB in Trey Lance under center and two stout backs in Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price taking goal line chances. And I’m not sure Samuel wants to be THE do-it-all guy anyway at least not until they pay him to be – Samuel still has yet to rescind his trade request. I expect Samuel to stay a 49er, and I expect him to assume a more traditional role this season.