Easy Come, Easy Go: Low-Risk Fantasy Football Players with High Upsides

If you’re going to take chances in your drafts this season, let them be on players with upside. Here are several undervalued players who have ceilings that drastically outweigh the risk you’re going to take in drafting them.

Have a fantasy draft coming up? Use the RosterWatch Cheat Sheet. Follow the three simple rules and an expert-quality draft is guaranteed. 

 

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford, Eagles: Bradford and the Eagles offense have been lighting it up in the preseason, leading the NFL in total offense thus far. That being said, it is the preseason, and I know better than to take too much stock in preseason performances. What does seem likely to hold true is that Chip Kelly game-plans to move the ball prodigiously, and Bradford is the beneficiary of that uptempo game-planning. Bradford has always had the arm, but he’s never been able to stay healthy. If he stays on his feet, he could easily have the best season of his career. You can draft him in the 11th, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he finished as a Top 10 QB this year.

 

Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings: If not for Teddy’s infamous Pro Day performance (we’re sorry to admit we’re a little bit to blame for filming the whole thing), he would have started his career with a much different reputation in the NFL. As is, he’s slowly gaining the respect of the haters even though he’s had mine from day one. I think it’s only a matter of time before Bridgewater is an elite QB in the NFL and the talent he has to work with is only going to speed up that process – Peterson, Williams, Johnson, and the list goes on. What he may lack in volume, Teddy makes up in efficient, largely error-free football.

 

Running Backs

David Johnson, Cardinals: Johnson is an anomaly in the NFL. He’s a big, between-the-tackles runner who excels in passing situations. This makes for monster plays out of the backfield. Andre Ellington is the starter in Arizona, but expect Johnson to swipe snaps from the get-go. I’m excited to see how a dynamic offensive mind like Bruce Arians implements a weapon of Johnson’s caliber. A post-10th round pick in most drafts, Johnson offers upside to spare.

 

Jonas Gray, Patriots: Gray had 201 yds and 4 tds in Week 11 last season. If that’s not upside, I don’t know what is. Gray is going to start the year out as the Patriots lead back due to LaGarrette Blount’s one-game suspension and he should maintain a considerable role should he hold onto the ball during that time.

 

Danny Woodhead, Chargers: Woodhead is a PPR owner’s dream. Melvin Gordon has underwhelmed in the preseason and it appears he may be in over his head as the lead back in San Diego. Only time will tell. What we do know is that Woodhead is going to rack up receptions as the passing-down back, but he could also bite into into Gordon’s carries. In his last full season, Woodhead had 76 catches on his way to a top 13 RB finish in PPR. I think he could top that total this year. His ADP is in the 8th to 9th round in PPR drafts, so he stands to offer considerable upside.

 

Wide Receivers

Allen Hurns, Jaguars: “The other Allen,” as I affectionately refer to him, Hurns is always a big play waiting to happen it seems. A nobody coming into last season, he ended up being the Jaguars leading receiver and people are sleeping on him again this year as Allen Robinson gets all of the hype. Hurns is going to be a starter, though, and he offers more big play ability than Robinson who is more of a possession guy. 

 

Michael Floyd, Cardinals: Yes, Floyd’s bones were protruding out of his disgusting and mangled hand not so long ago, but there are few players with the field-stretching ability he possesses. A leader in yards-per-catch last year, Floyd is being slept on by too many owners. You can get him as a WR 4 or 5, but he has the potential to perform as a WR 2 on fewer targets than most. His fall in current drafts is due to recency bias which good fantasy owners don’t fall victim to. 

 

Rueben Randle, Giants: News doesn’t look to great for Victor Cruz’s prospects in fantasy as his injuries continue to linger. This leaves the door wide open for Randle to step in as the 2nd option for Eli Manning – and what should be a high-octane offense. As teams do their best to contain Odell Beckham Jr., Randle is going to get plenty of work. He was a hair shy of a 1,000 yd season in 2014, and I think he’s going to improve on that this season in a contract year.

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed, Redskins: The only thing standing in the way of a Top 10 TE finish is his own health. Reed has been injury-plagued since entering the league, but – for once – it appears he’s coming into a season healthy. New QB Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine through most of his time in the NFL thus far, and the best remedy for that is an athletic tight end to dump the ball off to. The floor is low for Reed, but his ceiling is extremely high in what looks like a down year for TEs outside of Rob Gronkowski. 

 

Jacob Tamme, Falcons: Tamme’s upside comes in the TD department. Stay with me here. Julio Jones has never been a significant TD threat. I know it seems crazy but it’s true. He’s only had one double digit scoring year in the pros, and he wasn’t much of a scorer in college either. Roddy White is going to have trouble fighting for position in the endzone with his weakening joints, and this leaves Tamme to potentially stake his claim as Matt Ryan’s go-to in the end-zone. He’s going to get the opportunity if nothing else.

35 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By northface28

    Drop Richard Rodgers for Jordan Reed?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      not yet. i’d like to see how they perform for a week or two before i made a move like that. rodgers is on an elite offense.

  2. ↓ Post By Ken

    I was offered Hurns for Colman. Should i pull the trigger? Id hate for the Jags to turn into the Jags and Colman to get Grahams Redzone production and Saint offense to blow up this year. Where is the value? Both would be at best my 4th WR right now.

    1. ↓ Post By Ken

      Its a 12 team PPR start 3 WR.

    2. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      I don’t think this makes sense really. I rarely think straight up trades for players at the same position do. Both have similar roles theoretically, but Coleman is on the better team.

  3. ↓ Post By jaksteel

    12 Team PPR – do you think dropping my RB 6 – D Cobb R to pick up a low risk upside guy like Chris Simms, David Johnson, Ruben Randle, Malcom Floyd, or Tyrod Taylor makes sense? I find it hard to believe that Bishop Sankey will be the starter for long…but hearing they don’t think Cobb has a work ethic isn’t great.

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i like johnson and randle, especially randle in a ppr. tenn backfield is going to be a mess all season unless people get hurt.

  4. ↓ Post By ea4582

    Should i drop Tre mason, Brandon quick, andre williams, or ronnie hillman for David Johnson?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      it depends on your roster. what kind of depth do you have?

  5. ↓ Post By ea4582

    ***for david johnson or allen hurns

    1. ↓ Post By ea4582

      Standard scoring leagues.. In one league my starters are antonio brown, julio, ellington, Gore, Ivory. With my bench- J. Randle Agholor, B quick, Hillman, Andre Williams. In another league I have cooks, d thomas, Ingram, M. Lynch, Stevie Johnson, with Ivory Gurley, Ryan Mathews, A. Williams, J. Hunter. Who should i drop and pickup?

      1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

        i’d drop hunter for james jones if he’s available.

        1. ↓ Post By ea4582

          Thanks man!!!

  6. ↓ Post By renourka

    14 Team .5 PPR

    (1) QB: Palmer
    (2) WR: Sanders, S. Smith Sr. (R. White, Perriman)
    (2) RB: Charles, Gore (Ivory, T. Mason, Crowell)
    (1) TE: MIller
    (1) FLEX: J. Stewart
    Bench total : (5)

    With the recent news that Perriman won’t be ready til maybe October, should I be dropping him for anyone below? I’ve been trying to consolidate my RB depth in some trades for a better WR but no one is seeing the value in guys like J-Stew or Ivory yet so maybe after a week or two they’ll have more value to desperate teams needing RBs…

    Best available:
    QB: Bortles, RG3, Mariota
    RB: D. Cobb, D. Robinson, Sims, F. Jackson, T. West, Richardson, C. Artis-Payne, K. Williams
    WR: M. Jones, K. White, Moncrief, Sanu, Shorts III, Montgomery, Patterson, Malcolm Floyd, Beasley, J. Hunter, T. Lockett, Green-Beckham
    TE: Gates, R. Rodgers, Ebron

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i think crowell might be the one you want to move. he’s going to start the year, but johnson could move in on him quickly. at least with stew and ivory you’re getting bell cow backs. of that wr waiver list, i like the value of a montgomery who has high potential upside. him or a green-beckham.

      1. ↓ Post By renourka

        Good call on Crowell and I’ll try to move him after week 1 at this point… Definitely going to drop Perriman now and actually someone just dropped Allen Hurns so he’s probably the better add over Montomery or Green-Beckham right? Is Hurns worth putting in my 8th waiver claim in for?

        1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

          i’d grab james jones if he’s available actually. if not, hurns is worth a gamble. feel free to hold onto crowell longer too in light of the west trade.

  7. ↓ Post By openur3rdeye

    any1 else feeling scott chandler this year pats are short on receivers and we can probably assume they’ll run a ton of 2 tight ends sets?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i’d feel better about amendola or dobson…

  8. ↓ Post By renourka

    Hey again RW!

    Hopefully you guys don’t mind but I’ve relied on your cheat-sheet for FOUR different leagues this year and you guys have been my go to for the past few years so thanks in advance for all the advice I’m going to ask for this year! I’d like to hear thoughts on my last draft we had late tonight:

    10 Team PPR

    (1) QB: Rivers
    (3) WR: Julio, Dez, Hopkins (Stevie Johnson, Royal)
    (2) RB: Ingram, D. Martin (Ellington, Abdullah, Vereen)
    (1) TE: Rudolph
    (1) FLEX: D. Adams
    Bench total : (5)

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      stellar draft my friend! your wr corps is going to be unstoppable, and your rb group has great depth. i really don’t think you could have done a better job.

      1. ↓ Post By renourka

        Thanks! Couldn’t have done it without you guys!

  9. ↓ Post By Arkansas

    I guess Jonas Gray needs to updated at this point?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      yup, we’ll have that and other changes from the weekend in the next update.

  10. ↓ Post By VickInABox

    Hey guys, just drafted today. What do you think of my team. 12 team PPR with a 1-2-3-1 roster. I traded for a bunch of draft picks last year hence the amount of quality. Did I hit a home run here?

    Demaryius Thomas
    AJ Green
    Brandin Cooks
    Justin Forsett
    Frank Gore
    Latavius Murray
    Ben Roethlisberger
    Martellus Bennet
    Brandon Marshall
    Ameer Abdullah
    CJ Spiller
    Davante Parker
    Matt Jones
    Roy Helu
    Brandon Lafell
    Breshad Perriman
    Andy Dalton
    Javorious Allen
    Colts D
    Justin Tucker

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      you certainly did vick! every position is stacked with talent. now might be a good time to see which players you could consolidate to get even more elite talent at the rb position.

  11. ↓ Post By coopera

    Hey Guys,
    12 team 1/2 point PPR
    I used your draft cheat sheet to get the following:
    QB: Tannehill
    RB: AP, Ingram, Bernard, Vereen, Woodhead, Foster
    WR: Jefferies, Marshall, Cooper, Agholor, Stevie Johnson, Markus Wheaton
    TE: Rudolph
    K: Parkey
    D: none
    I dropped my D to pick up Foster as a free agent. I need a D and I need to drop someone to get it. Can you please make some streaming D recs for week one and suggest who I would be best off dropping? Many thanks.

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      nice work on the draft! cleveland should be a solid def play for the first several weeks, as well as carolina and miami for week 1. it’s tough, but i’d drop wheaton.

  12. ↓ Post By cyee943077

    Need some trade help! 10 team standard league. Im weak and WR. Got offered Jordan Matthew’s and Jeremy Maclan for Julio jones. My other wides are Allen hurns, ruban randle, crabtree, and perriman.

    I got AP, levion bell, and foster as my backs.

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i’d probably do that trade. matthews has considerable upside for his adp.

  13. ↓ Post By snrsfan11

    10 Team PPR League having trouble picking my WR3 and FLEX. Help a brother out.

    Starters as of Today:

    QB – Matt Ryan
    WR1 – Alshon
    WR2 – Mike Evans
    WR3 – Edelman
    RB1 – Jamaal Charles
    RB2 – Lamar Miller
    Flex – J Stewart
    TE – Kelce

    BENCH:

    Charles Johnson
    Markus Wheaton
    Nelson Agholor
    Ty Montgomery
    Brian Quick
    Chris Ivory

    Should i stick with what i have or make some changes?

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i like what you have now, but if alshon sits for some reason, i think wheaton is a sneaky good play. right now is the time to play him with bell out. i like stew against jax in your flex.

  14. ↓ Post By rw-eeaXWuovY

    10 team ppr. RBs are DeMarco Murray, Gore, Latavius Murray, Ivory. Hillman. WRs are Dez, Cooks, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Boldin. Which 5 would you start this week?

  15. ↓ Post By John

    line up question – standard scoring

    Stafford or Ryan

    Randle or Martin

    Thanks

    John

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      ryan, martin. good luck!

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