Associated Press

Betting Picks Against the Spread: Value Index Tool – Week 4

The Value Index Tool (VIA) is a time-tested, proprietary NFL betting tool that predicts scores with 58-62% historical accuracy. The predicted margin of victory is compared to las Vegas spreads to determine value in every NFL game. The model was created in 2015 and has never produced a losing season. In 2021 the algorithm was amongst the top 30% in the Circa Sports Million Contest with its worst performing year. The Value Index Algorithm derives from investment modeling techniques used by veteran investment industry professional Mitch Flax.

Gain access to the VIA’s picks for every game of each week, and helpful tools for sports betting, player props and more and by upgrading to a PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP.

Value Index Tool

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia (-6.5) Sunday 1pm

The Eagles are the best in the NFL with an average of 447 yards/game while the Jags sit at 6th averaging 375 yards/game. The Jaguars defensive unit is only allowing 12.7 points/game to Eagles 28.7 points/game, while the Eagles are allowing 16.7 points/game to Jacksonville’s 28 points/game.

Value Index Prediction: Jacksonville 26.2 – 25.3 Philadelphia

Pick: Jacksonville

Value: 7.35 Points

*****

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh (-3.5) Sunday 1pm

Two evenly matched offenses with Steelers averaging 18 points/game while the Jets are scoring 17.3 points/game. Pittsburgh sits at 30th in 1st downs/game with only 16 while the Jets are tied for 10th at 21. The Jets are allowing 336 yards/game to the Steelers 394 yards/game.

Value Index Prediction: New York Jets 21.35 – 18.91 Pittsburgh

Pick: Jets

Value: 5.94

*****

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay(-1) Sunday 8:20pm

Tampa’s defense is only allowing 289 yards/game and ranked 1st in scoring defense allowing opponents to just 9 point/game. The Chiefs are ranked 4th scoring 29.3 points/game while the Bucs are averaging 17 points/game. 71% of the money is coming in on KC.

Value Index Prediction: Kansas City 23.18 – 17.87 Tampa Bay

Pick: Kansas City

Value: 6.31

9 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By libowskee@yahoo.com

    What up Nation!

    Would you guys trade Pittman Jr for CeeDee straight up?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      We prefer Pittman, but its a reasonable trade if you want out.

  2. ↓ Post By Pablackbird

    Worried about Julio as a likely GTD sun night. Would you drop him or Mooney for any of J Palmer, Dortch, or J Reynolds? Thanks guys

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Play Palmer if you don’t want to worry. He is in a solid spot with KA out.

  3. ↓ Post By D Ron

    Ppr.

    Rb: Gibson or Damien Harris

    Flex. Drake London, Gibson, harris, or Curtis Samuel

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Gibson still has that nice upside. Harris is a good play but we go Gibson here

      Flex London needs to be in lineups. GL!

  4. ↓ Post By Cancop1

    Need 1 flex in PPR , Doubbs Palmer or Jeff Wilson

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Wilson is the “safe” floor play. Doubs is that nuclear upside. caught all 8 of his targets last week. Play him

  5. ↓ Post By mendelbaum

    Is this a weekly feature? I’ll stay signed on if you can keep feeding me 2 out of 3.

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