PRO Betting Picks Against the Spread: Value Index Tool – Week 5
The Value Index Tool (VIA) is a time-tested, proprietary NFL betting tool that predicts scores with 58-62% historical accuracy. The predicted margin of victory is compared to las Vegas spreads to determine value in every NFL game. The model was created in 2015 and has never produced a losing season. In 2021 the algorithm was amongst the top 30% in the Circa Sports Million Contest with its worst performing year. The Value Index Algorithm derives from investment modeling techniques used by veteran investment industry professional “Can’t Miss Mitch”.
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Value Index Tool
Detroit @ New England (-3) Sunday 1pm
The Lions are the best in the NFL in points scored averaging 35 points/game, at the same time they are worst in the league in points allowed at 35.3. That being said, New England has not been great on either side of the ball, however they are ranked 10th in rushing yards/game and I expect a run heavy game plan. Detroit can play the run game too as they are ranked 6th in rushing yards/game. Both teams have struggled against the run ranked 26th and 30th respectively.
Value Index Prediction: Detroit 32.6 – 25.3 New England
Pick: Detroit
Value: 10.3
*****
Seattle @ New Orleans (-5.5) Sunday 1pm
The Seahawks have been surprisingly great on offense with Geno Smith under center ranked 11th in total scoring offense and 7th in points per play at .417. The Saints offense has not had as much success as their week 5 foe, tied 18th in scoring offense alongside the Jets and Giants. Not sure I would call that good company. New Orleans defense has been one of the best teams in limiting opponent first downs to just 18.5, while the Hawks are one of the worst.
Value Index Prediction: Seattle 29.2 – 22.9 New Orleans
Pick: Seattle
Value: 11.7
*****
Dallas @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) Sunday 4:25pm
Last year the Cowboys were the best scoring offense in the league and had a rough start coming into week 4 at last in the league. The last 3 games Dallas’s offense has stepped up averaging 22.7 points/game while LA is averaging 20 points/game. The Rams come into this game ranked 29th in the scoring offense and 30th in rush yards/game. This Dallas defense has been spectacular to watch and is ranked 3d best holding opponents to just 15.5 points/game. LA ranks 6th in rushing yards/game however they are ranked 20th in yards allowed through the air.
Value Index Prediction: Dallas 22.6 – 18.2 Los Angeles
Pick: Dallas
Value: 9.9
16 Comments
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I think the Saints and Seahawks games the teams are backwards when it comes to the prediction.
IT was, sorry. It’s correct in the tool, fixed now — good eye.
Oh wow so Seattle is the right pick in that game?
10 team PPR 3-1 , Play 1QB 3WR 2RB 1Flex 1TE No IR spots
Me:
Russ Wilson
WR: Kupp, Marq Brown (Az), DLondon, Bateman, Garrett Wilson, GPickens
RB: DSwift, Fournette, JWilliams (DET) BHall, Montgomery
TE: Pitts
Wilson is Stinking up the field in 4/5 games
Pitts Out – I think I wish to stick with Pitts and wait
8 /10 teams make play-offs – with the players in my leagu, 95% chance I will be in play-offs
So I want to build a championship team
QB QUESTION I can’t drop Wilson until Tuesday night
Available QBs Free agents right now: DPrescott DWatson Goff TLaurence KPickett Garapolo
– Wait until waivers and pick one of these up Tuesday night and drop Wilson?
– Make space on my bench and grab Prescott or Watson and stream until one of them comes back? Who would I drop?
– Stay with Stinky Wilson
TE QUESTION: Stick with Pitts and take a 0 this week, or drop Pitts ( another team will take him on Waiver) and pick up one of available free agents:
THigbee TConklin Logan Thomas RTonyan HHurst E Engram Disssley T Hill CBrate
Id wait for news on Bateman’s mid foot and if he’s going to miss multiple weeks, then drop him to pick up Dak.
Dropping Pitts is something I wouldn’t do, I know he’s been bad, but it’s really tough to let him go. I think I would maybe drop one of your rookie WRs (GW or GP) and pick up a replacement. In such a small league, if neither of those guys have big weeks, you should be able to throw your streamer TE away and pick them back up.
Is Zay Jones or Renfrow worth a pick up and who between the two..full ppr thanks
I’d prefer to have renfrow in a full PPR as a depth player.
Formerly Amber Heards Dog 0-4 points against after 4 weeks is 105 points more than the highest scoring team so far while scoring the 3rd most myself. Anyway lol
0.5ppr need 2 flex from:
Zeke, Damien Harris, Khalil Herbert, Rashad Penny, Brandon cooks, DK
currently have Mixon Cook and Deebo locked in with hurts at QB.
Preciate your time.
Leaning Harris and Herbert unless Montgomery goes then probably Harris and DK
Penny and Zeke for me in this format, but I think I am the only one who likes Zeke this week.
Coin flip type matchup for me this week. If he plays do I roll out St. Brown and put DK on the bench?
Understand that Amon-Ra may not be 100%. I like DK there, but understand if you decide to go with St. Brown.
Think I will play it safe with DK. Hate to swing for the fences and come up empty on ARSB.
Good Morning Fellas!
Choke Artist. 4-0
Would you go with Montgomery, Herbert or Diante Johnson as a flex (PPR)?
Thanks!
Any word on if Bateman will miss a few weeks?
Need information for a move I would like to make
1 point ppr
Allgeier or Akers?