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PRO Betting Picks Against the Spread: Value Index Tool – Week 6

The Value Index Algorithm (VIA) is a time-tested, proprietary NFL betting tool that predicts scores with 58-62% historical accuracy. The predicted margin of victory is compared to las Vegas spreads to determine value in every NFL game. The model was created in 2015 and has never produced a losing season. In 2021 the algorithm was amongst the top 30% in the Circa Sports Million Contest with its worst performing year. The Value Index Algorithm derives from investment modeling techniques used by veteran investment industry professional “Can’t Miss Mitch”.

Gain access to the VIA’s picks for EVERY game of EACH week, along with helpful tools for sports betting, player props and more and by upgrading to a PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP.

 

Value Index Tool

 

New England @ Cleveland (-2.5) Sunday 1pm

 

The Patriots defense comes into FirstEnergy Stadium ranked 12th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.6 while the Browns are letting up 25 points/game.  These are 2 of the best rushing offenses in the league, Cleveland ranks 1st in yards on the ground at 187 yards/game the last 3 games while New England sits at 6th with 162.7 yards/game. Conversely Cleveland sit at 31th in rushing yards allowed on the ground the last 3 games, New England just slightly better. Naturally the Browns offensive unit ranks 1st in time of possession. 

 

Value Index Prediction: Cleveland 25.88 – 25.77 New England

 

Pick: New England

 

Value: 2.39 

 

*****

 

San Francisco (-5.5)  @ Atlanta Sunday 1pm

 

Demeco Ryans in his 2nd season as the 49ers Defensive Coordinator has quickly made a name for himself. San Fran is ranked number 1 in points allowed at just 11.7 points/game the last 3 games.  Atlanta has one of the best run games in the league, ranked 3d the last 3 games in yards gained on the ground. The 49ers have the best rush defense allowing just 71.4 yards/game through the first 5 weeks.

 

Value Index Prediction: San Francisco 26.85 – 19.65 Atlanta 

 

Pick: San Francisco 

 

Value: 1.7

 

*****

 

Carolina @ Los Angeles Rams (-10) Sunday 4:05pm

 

The Rams Red Zone scoring has been one of the worst in the league ranked 28th. LA is ranked the worst in rushing offense in almost every statistical category. Steve Wilks takes over as interim head coach after the firing of Rhule and inherits an anemic offense as they rank last in yards gained/game. Defensively Panthers have fared well ranked 9th in red zone scoring percentage, however LA is ranked 4th. Expect a low scoring game.

  

Value Index Prediction: Carolina 17.67 – 17.09 Los Angeles 

 

Pick: Carolina

 

Value: 10.57

7 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By renourka

    Apologies for the repost but I’m trying to get trade advice from a RW expert like Byron, Alex and/Trashman! No offense to anyone else but I’m a long time PRO member and getting advice from the real Rosterwatch experts is what’s kept me coming back all 10+ years!

    12 team PPR; (3-2)

    [1] QB: Murray
    [2] RB: Chubb, D. Cook (Gainwell, Akers, Dam. Williams)
    [2] WR: Higgins, Olave (C. Samuel, C. Davis, R. Moore, Gage)
    [1] TE: Kittle (Everett)
    [2] W/R/T: Mixon, London
    Bench total: (7)

    Traded away Hollywood and JRob to a losing team last week for CHUBB! Now trying to go after one of the top WRs in the tradecast but not sure if I have the ammo? Any package deals you’d recommend piecing together to maybe go after a top dog last minute?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      I don’t see any plays you can make for a big dog WR that won’t involve Chubb or Dalvin and I wouldn’t trade those guys. I would regularlay recommend maybe using Tee or Olave to mix in with someone to upgrade, but you won’t get fair value for those guys this week because their statuses for their games are both up in the air. Great job on the Chubb pickup tho.

  2. ↓ Post By renourka

    Awesomen Alex! I’ll shall try my best, thanks man!

  3. ↓ Post By sdboor

    PPR
    I have Pitts but picked up THill to play this week

    TE: Pitts or THill this week?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      If Olave is out, I’d play Taysom. YOLO

  4. ↓ Post By renourka

    Trying to back to .500!

    PPR; (2-3)
    Need 1 WR and 1 FLEX

    R. Moore @SEA
    Duvernay @NYG
    E. Benjamin @SEA
    K Walker vs. ARI
    D. Henderson vs. CAR
    Boone @LAC

  5. ↓ Post By minionhunter

    Mitch – what do you think about this/these stats?

    I’m just wondering if my Ravens are in for a rough time or not.

    Clay Martin and his crew have a home team bias. So much so that the home team winning percentage is 80%. The NFL league wide home team has a 51% winning percentage.

    65% of the flags are thrown on the visitors when Martin is the head referee.

    I got this information from Bobby Depaul who was interviewed here and said the statistics don’t lie.

    https://www.audacy.com/podcasts/inside-access-with-jason-lacanfora-and-ken-weinman-58024/bobby-depaul-joined-inside-access-1530846422

    Thank you for anything you can tell me.

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