A Measure of Central Tendency: Maclin vs. Jackson
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com
I am a big Jeremy Maclin guy. I own him and love the value he presents. My belief is that as far as fantasy football is concerned, Maclin is greater than or equal to DeSean Jackson. Not to mention he is also a very good and very legitimate football player. HE WAS a “DeSean Jackson” at Missouri AND Vick loves him.
I started wondering whether I was biased because I owned Maclin?!?! So I decided to run the numbers:
Maclin ‘10/’11 – 21 games Jackson ‘10/’11 – 20 games
107 Receptions 71 Receptions
1,453 Yards Rec. 1,512 Yards Rec.
36 Yards Rush. 100 Yards Rush.
13 Touchdowns 9 Touchdowns
83 Yard Long ’10 91 Yard Long ’10
59 Yard Long ’11 61 Yard Long ’11
Average Points = 10.6 Average Points = 10.45
Median Points = 9 Median Points = 6.5
Multimodal = 5,7,11 (avg.=7.67) Mode = 3
Low Pts. Output = 1 Low Pts. Output = 1
High Pts. Output = 30 High Pts. Output = 28
1-2 pt. output = 14% frequency 1-4 pt. output = 40% frequency
5-7 pt. output = 29% frequency 5-8 pt. output = 15% frequency
9-16 pt. output = 43% frequency 14-19 pt. output = 25% frequency
20-30 pt. output = 14% frequency 20-28 pt. output = 20% frequency
15-30 pt. output = 24% frequency 14-28 pt. output = 45% frequency
1-5 pt. output = 29% frequency 1-5 pt. output = 50% frequency
7-30 pt. output = 71% 8-28 pt. output = 50%
5-30 pt. output = 86% 5-28 pt. output = 60%
What the Numbers Mean:
Jeremy Maclin gets WAY MORE targets. Maclin scores more TD’s. Both players are capable of big explosive plays, Jackson with a very slight edge.
Average points are the best indicator of overall value and the numbers are almost identical, slight edge to Maclin.
Median points represent the expected value of a typical outcome. This would be a conservative approach used as an index for projecting weekly player values. Significant edge to Maclin.
The Mode is a more relevant method for evaluating nominal scenarios but it still presents us with the most frequent outcomes owners can expect. The edge here goes to Jeremy Maclin as well.
The numbers indicate that DeSean Jackson is literally a coin flip every week. I love that Maclin scores 9-16 pts. 43% of the time and 7-30 pts. 71% of the time. That is a ton of serviceable games. You can count on him to come through almost every week.
My general belief is that WR is a very inconsistent position, even for the top rated players. Thus, I put a premium on consistency and Maclin really displays it. I’ll also take the catches over the yards/catch. I believe both of these guys have the ability to make big plays so I like the guy who gets the ball more. The difference is significant, Jeremy Maclin averages 44% more receptions/game than Desean Jackson.
The equalizer? If your fantasy football league scores special teams production, Jackson gets a bump. DeSean is ALWAYS a threat there. Also, playing fantasy football is about having fun and loving your team. Jackson is definitely one of the most exciting players in the league to watch and own.
My recommendation? Make some trade offers in your league for Jeremy Maclin. Even if you are a Jackson owner! Heck, if you can trade Jackson for Maclin+, now that would be a deal!