Happy Thanksgiving to all of RosterWatch Nation, on this day, we are very thankful for each and every one of you.
A few quick notes on the 2-game DFS slate as an addendum to the DFS cheat sheets, which are based on a model that doesn’t take into account the nature of small slates and is unlikely to yield a Top 1% lineup construction, as all the model knows is to jam in the best plays on a per-dollar basis. On a slate like this, it’s very likely that the best lineups will not be built with optimal construction in mind. A few things to think about:
– The lineup that wins the Milly Maker this week is likely one that you would hate to submit pre-lock.
– Deshaun Watson will be massively owned because he’s the clear best play. Taking a stand by going with a worse QB gets you some leverage and a different lineup construction than the masses who will stack this game heavily. You could gain extra leverage by playing Duke Johnson in your non-Deshaun lineups even though he has been terrible. The galaxy brain move here might even be to play CJ Prosise in those lineups.
– Do not be afraid to leave money on the table. It’s easy to get who you want especially now that Swift is out of play as a possible spend-up and the PIT/BAL game is gone. A way to be different is to leave over $700 on the table, that’s when most players start thinking they are leaving too much.
– Most players don’t want to play a defense in the game they are most interested in stacking. They generally stack one game (say, HOU/DET) and then look to the other game for a defensive play and associated correlated plays to go with a script in which that defense does well, which is perfectly sensible – hence the reason people gravitate toward that construction. It doesn’t make much sense from a logical perspective, but with only 4 D/STs in play, you can make your lineup different by playing a defense within the game you’ve stacked.
– If you stack Houston, and feel that the Lions will be playing from behind, remember that Kerryon Johnson played 70% of snaps last week when DET found itself in a negative script without Swift available.
– Furthermore, if stacking HOU and wanting to bring it back with DET players, Marvin Jones looks to be popular as he’s been known to have big T-day games plus there’s no Golladay or Amendola. Jones is likely to get Bradley Roby in coverage, though, so Marvin Hall and Jamal Agnew (6 targets last week out of the slot) are both decent bring-back pivots. The deepest of plays on the DET side could be Mohamed Sanu. It’s also easy to picture a Jesse James TD catch to give all the TJ Hockenson ownership contingent heartburn.
– No one is going to play both WAS running backs in the same lineup which makes it appealing. Same with the Dallas running backs. Hell, if you want to win a million bucks on the galaxy-brain idea that Stafford will struggle and has given up on Matt Patricia, you can puke on yourself before even starting Thanksgiving dinner and play both AP and Kerryon.
– Some lesser-owned plays that could make sense in a Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb-less HOU offense stack aside from the popular Fuller and Cooks are KeKe Coutee and TE Jordan Akins who is likely to operate some out of the slot.
Have a great Thanksgiving, enjoy your football and thanks again for your support, which allows us to do what we love so much: see you guys win in fantasy football.