ADP Observations and Strategy: CEH, Leonard Fournette, James Conner
by Alan Seslowsky

After Independence Day is when many fantasy football players start the bulk of their research for the upcoming season. We know that RosterWatch Nation is tuned in year-round, but when the casual players start entering bestball and mock drafts, ADP has a tendency to change. Below are a few observations and strategies that we may have to react to as more fantasy players start to get engaged.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Has Mega-Upside But Comes With Risk

It is easy to make a positive case for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He was the first running back drafted in 2020, by one of the best offenses, and he will be playing with the best QB in the NFL. Add to that he is a prolific pass catcher, which is gold for most fantasy leagues. CEH will be playing in the Andy Reid system that has churned out elite running backs in fantasy football for nearly 15 years. He is currently being drafted in the top 25 picks as the RB14. While RosterWatch acknowledges that there is appealing upside, we want to point out there is significant risk. All rookies are not going to have the traditional offseason time to get acclimated and practice because of the global pandemic precautions. At a minimum, this will presumably affect CEH’s early-season snap count and ultimately production. Let’s not forget that Damien Williams is still on the team, and is coming off a dominant playoff run. There was a case to be made that Damien Williams was the Super Bowl MVP. Those who draft CEH in the second round of fantasy drafts need to understand the risk before investing just as much as they are weighing the possible reward.

 

Leonard Fournette: Can We Trust Him For Fantasy?

The market is split on if it trusts Leonard Fournette. There are two ways to frame the debate. Fournette’s July ADP is 39 or RB16. Many would argue that he is a great value, at his current price. A three-down runner who was targeted 100 times in 2019. Leonard Fournette’s 2019  low TD total of three, was off-set by catching 76 passes. The other narrative around Fournette is that the Jaguars did not pick up his fifth-year option and spent much of the Spring trying to trade him. New OC Jay Gruden also recruited his former pass-catching specialist from Washington, Chris Thompson, to join the team. Based on how we have seen Gruden deploy Thompson in the past, we can conclude that Thompson will be at least a semi-significant part of the passing game. This does not bode well for Fournette’s PPR upside. Fournette remains the primary runner and should get the first chance in short yardage. RosterWatch co-founder, Alex Dunlap, pointed out that even if the team does not like Fournette, they are aware he will not be on the team next season, and could “run ’em ’till the wheels fall off.” 

 

James Conner A Modern Day “Sleeper” 

If you have been playing fantasy football for a long time, the most impressive change over the years has been the availability of real-time information about the players. Because of social media and the internet, we get alerts in the palm of our hand instantly. As a result, there are hardly any true “sleepers” in 2020. Even the most casual fantasy players are aware of the RBs, WRs, TEs, and QBs that can break out if they have the alerts on their phone turned on. However, James Conner may represent a “sleeper,” by modern-day standards, at his current ADP of 54, RB20. Last year James Conner was a fringe first-round pick, coming off a top 12 finish in 2018. Conner did miss significant time last year due to injury (and multiple injuries at that), ultimately resulting in a lower 2020 ADP. The Steelers drafted fourth-round RB, Anthony McFarland, still have 2019’s fourth-round pick Benny Snell, and hybrid RB/TE Jaylen Samuels as depth options. McFarland represents the most upside of the group, but for reasons that we laid out above, rookies may have more of an acclimation period than in years past. The Steelers have given all of the signals that James Conner is their 2020 three-down starter. Conner comes with some risks but also top 12 RB upside.