Alex Dunlap’s (First and Final) 2015 NFL Mock Draft

1. Tampa Bay (2-14) – Jameis Winston, QB FSU

– At least I think I’ll get this one pick right if nothing else.

2. Tennessee (2-14) – Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon

– I’ll get half the points in the contest if Mariota is taken in the second-spot, even if the team-match is incorrect, and picking which team would trade up with the Titans could mess up the rest of the draft board if I’m incorrect in my assumption it would likely be San Diego or Cleveland. Mariota is the second-best QB I’ve seen perform at the NFL combine (Jameis Winston was the best; Andrew Luck did not throw in Indy) and I believe he will be selected with the second-overall pick even if it’s not Tennessee. I spoke with Titans HC Ken Whisenhunt at the Senior Bowl about Zach Mettenberger, and got the impression that Whiz wasn’t sold on Mett being “Eli Jr.” as I suggested just yet.

3. Jacksonville (3-13) – Dante Fowler, OLB Florida

– This is where it starts getting hard, because many experts and scouts I trust believe that Leonard Williams is the best overall player in the draft and it’s an opinion I share. Jaguars GM Dave Caldwell is adamant in his stance of taking the best player available. However, edge-rusher is the far greater need for the Jags than an inside-presence and the sports books in Vegas have set the over/under on Fowler lower (pick 3.5) than that of Williams.

4. Oakland (3-13) – Leonard Williams, DT USC

– It’s a pickle the Raiders find themselves in, but it’s a good pickle all things considered. They now have the choice of the best WR in the draft (and the player they’ve likely planned on picking all along), Amari Cooper in one hand and Williams in the other. In the end, while the staff reportedly LOVES Cooper, Williams is the scarcer commodity and comes at a position of equal need. New Raiders HC Jack Del Rio is a USC alum, and I doubt he’d need much convincing from the chili-bowl Mark Davis to get talked off of taking Cooper. Fantastic receiving weapons for Derek Carr will be available through virtually the entire draft, especially the next two rounds.

5. Washington (4-12) – Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa

– New Redskins GM Scot McCloughlan indicated this week that beefing up the offensive line will be a priority in the draft and heading into the 2015 season. While I have a suspicion that Washington could trade back here and still select Scherff a few picks later while a team like Atlanta trades up for an edge-rusher it covets, I still think in that case that the Skins end up with the former Hawkeye and I’ll get half-credit.

6. New York Jets (4-12) – Bud Dupree, OLB Kentucky

– Dupree was not the most effective edge-rusher in the class, but the size and freakish athleticism he showed off at the NFL combine represent about as high an upside one could imagine as a pass-rusher in Todd Bowles’ new system, plus it’s a great position of need for the Jets.

7. Chicago (5-11) – Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson

– The Bears have a lot of players who’re suited to rush the passer under the new coaching regime, but Beasley is arguably the top edge-rusher in the class and the team had a horrible time getting to the quarterback last season in a division where it faces Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and a rapidly improving Teddy Bridgewater. Beasley represents a key building block moving forward even though the en-vogue pick is one of the top WRs to fill the void left by Brandon Marshall who’s joined the Jets.

8. Atlanta (6-10) – Todd Gurley, RB Georgia

– A disaster for Thomas Dimitroff, just the way I like to see. All of his coveted edge-threats are off the board and he finds himself in a pickle. The good news for Dimitroff is the pick that he hates to make in taking home-state phenom Todd Gurley will be his best move since trading up for Julio Jones. As a Devonta Freeman owner in dynasty hoping for no impediments to Freeman’s projected 2015 touches, I hate to make this pick, but there it is. Gurley is the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson.

9. New York Giants (6-10) – Kevin White, WR WVU

– The Giants have a more pressing need at OL and could also a myriad of issues on the defensive side of the football, but Giants GM Jerry Reese could not have suspected White would fall this far after his absolutely ridiculous combine and NFL draft season. White’s a different type of receiver than the two mentioned and serves as more of a contrast and addition to the portfolio than Amari Cooper. All of the sudden, between White, Beckham and Cruz, the Giants have the best WR tandem in the league.

10. St. Louis (6-10) – Amari Cooper, WR Alabama

– The best receiver in the draft falls all the way to the team who covets him the most. Cooper’s mix of traits have plenty of Torry Holt dashed into them, a player who Rams GM Les Snead knows his fan base is very familiar with.

11. Minnesota (7-9) – Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State

– The tea leaves have read for the better part of the draft season that the Vikings will be targeting corners, and while I think there’s a case to be made for taking Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest) here, I think the popular pick in Waynes will be the correct one.

12. Cleveland (7-9) – Breshad Perriman, WR UCF

– The narrative that’s been created about Perriman has been that he has bad hands, but this is simply not true and Perriman is my No. 3-ranked WR in the draft. In fact, I’m uncomfortable not having him at No. 2 over Kevin White. Unfortunately, the Browns may agree with me, which would make me doubt my own opinion. Perriman has dined with the Browns recently and is clearly a player in the Josh Gordon mold without the abundance of off-field issues.

13. New Orleans (7-9) – Randy Gregory, OLB Nebraska

– Widely thought of as a top-10 pick before failing a drug test at the NFL combine, Gregory doesn’t slip as far as many analysts and media outlets have been reporting. Too much talent to let slip for a little bit of marijuana in the bloodstream. Gregory has met with the team and I believe the Saints covet Gregory and do not believe he’ll last until their second first-round pick at 31 acquired via the Jimmy Graham trade.

14. Miami (8-8) – Devante Parker, WR Louisville

– Parker is thought of by many as the third-best receiving prospect in the draft, and despite the team’s recent acquisition of veteran Greg Jennings, the 2014 emergence of Jarvis Landry, and the trade for Kenny Stills, the Dolphins still have the need for a tall WR who can win at the catch-point in contested situations for improving franchise QB Ryan Tannehill.

15. San Francisco (8-8) – Marcus Peters, CB Washington

– Corner is a huge need for the 49ers following offseason losses to numerous starters, and new HC Jim Tomsula does not seem to be the type who’s overly concerned about “character issues” disrupting his locker room. Peters was kicked off the team in college, but is not a player who has criminal off-field issues, and is thought of by many as the most talented CB in the draft physically.

16. Houston (9-7) – Landon Collins, S Alabama

– Texans HC Bill O’Brien indicated at the owners’ meetings that safety was a great need for the Texans and while I think WR and OLB are also areas of focus, there have been four WRs already off the board and I believe the Texans would rush to get in the card for Collins if he fell in this way. It sews up a good young corps at the position, even in a draft that is notably weak at safety.

17. San Diego (9-7) – Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin

– He’s the second-best running back available and the Chargers have a desperate need at the position. Frankly, they had a desperate need at the position even before shipping off a real lemon in Ryan Matthews. The Chargers get their own version of Jamaal Charles to face off against the Chiefs and other AFC West opponents with.

18. Kansas City (9-7) – Kevin Johnson, CB Wake Forest

– Most people have the Chiefs taking a WR here, but with the addition of Jeremy Maclin and the relative emergence of Albert Wilson in 2014, it just seems to early to take a risk on a miscreant like Dorial Green-Beckham who Alex Smith won’t know how to use properly anyway. I know for a fact that at least one team has Kevin Johnson as the No. 1 CB in the draft and Chiefs GM John Dorsey is known for loving long corners.

19. Cleveland – from Buffalo (9-7) – Cam Erving, OL FSU

– Erving is super-athletic and versatile as a player who some think can play all five spots on the offensive line at the NFL level with development. He’s a draft crush of a few scouts I’ve spoken with so I’m not sure he’ll even be available. I had La’el Collins mocked here, but am not comfortable with that now that he’s been brought up for questioning in the murder of his pregnant ex-girlfriend. His lawyer said he’s not a suspect, and he probably isn’t, but all lawyers say those things and I’m not messing with this kind of thing when it regards a first-round pick. In reality, Erving may be the better pick as a future stud-center post-Alex Mack.

20. Philadelphia (10-6) – Arik Armstead, DL Oregon

– The fans will mock Chip Kelly for taking yet another Oregon player, but Amstead is a physical freak, and the type of prospect Kelly would like even he wasn’t an ex-Duck he was comfortable with. At this point in the draft, monster DLs should be at a premium to being with when looking at value.

21. Cincinnati* (10-5-1) – Andrus Peat, OL Stanford

– Many believe that Peat will be gone by this time, but I don’t see it. Cincinnati has made it clear that the team needs to ramp up the offensive line with many members aging and a duo of young RBs in Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard it intends to build around.

22. Pittsburgh* (11-5) – Byron Jones, CB UConn

– Corner is a huge need for the Steelers and GM Kevin Colbert is known as an evaluator who places great emphasis on college productivity and seasoning which would make a more raw prospect such as Jalen Collins of LSU not fit the profile.

23. Detroit* (11-5) – Malcom Brown, DT Texas

– The best Texas defensive linemen since Casey Hampton falls right into a situation that suits his skill-set perfectly. Motor City Malcom, I can see it already.

24. Arizona* (11-5) – Shane Ray, OLB Missouri

– Ray’s fall due to his recent marijuana concerns stops at the Cardinals who have a need for outside-pass-rush help and who’ve had great success “taking a chance” on players with weedy backgrounds recently given the evolution of the Honey Badger Tyrann Mathieu’s game to first-class status. Cardinals GM Steve Keim pounces on value as many have Ray pegged as a top-10 prospect based on talent alone.

25. Carolina* (7-8-1) – T.J. Clemmings, OL Pitt

– I hate the pick and believe that Clemmings is currently very raw, but the upside is undeniable as is Carolina’s need for young tackles to protect Cam Newton. Receiver is still an issue, but as mentioned with the Raiders, fantastic options will be available in rounds two and three with high-upside, very good options available throughout all three days. This is the deepest WR class I’ve seen since I began covering the draft professionally in 2011. There are 17 WRs I would be comfortable (and thrilled about) taking in the first three rounds.

26. Baltimore* (10-6) – Phillip Dorsett, WR Miami

– Dorsett was unbelievable at the Senior Bowl, which Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome puts stock in. Dorsett answered all the questions about his route-running ability and about the ability to separate in small areas all over the field as well as using his clear 4.3-speed to get vertical. A perfect replacement for Torrey Smith.

27. Dallas* (12-4) – Eric Rowe, DB Utah

– It looks like I might have been wrong about Morris Claiborne saying he’s a more technical Patrick Peterson, but it’s not completely said and done yet. Even so, it’s getting close to said and done at this point. Claiborne has had some injuries but development has not occurred and he’s almost, bafflingly, seemed to regress. Rowe is one of the most athletic CBs in the draft, and when you see him in person, he looks like a safety or college shooting-guard in basketball. Very long and athletic as well as versatile enough to plug in at most spots in the defensive backfield. A very sound pick at a marquee position by a football staff that has been making very sound picks recently.

28. Denver* (12-4) – Laken Tomlinson, OG Duke

– This one might have fans scratching their heads, but I saw the Broncos scouts very interested in Tomlinson during his week of outstanding Senior Bowl practices and John Elway has made it clear that the OL will be a point of emphasis. The ties to the Duke program are strong with the Broncos including Peyton Manning’s work with Duke HC David Cutcliffe. Tomlinson is the model of a professional you’d want in your building and one of the most solid individuals I’ve had the opportunity to meet over the last five drafts.

29. Indianapolis* (11-5) – Danny Shelton, DT Washington

– Shelton is a pure nose-tackle and run-stuffing force who has calves the size of most NFL linemens’ quads. He’ll fit in perfectly to an Indy defense that was shredded by the run last season (LeGarrette Blount says hello, actually so does Jonas Gray – two backs Indy will surely see again on its way through the AFC playoffs).

30. Green Bay* (12-4) – Denzel Perryman, LB Miami

– Various reports have connected the Packers with inside linebackers, and Perryman is the kind of sideline-to-sideline presence that Packers GM Ted Thompson loves.

31. New Orleans – from Seattle* (12-4) – Devin Smith, WR Ohio State

– The Saints let go off their over-the-top burner in Kenny Stills and now have a receiving corps featuring Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks and six other guys you’ve never heard of. Smith was in the top-tier of receivers at the Senior Bowl and performed well at the combine. He “checked all the boxes” with numerous scouts through the process regarding his ability to run routes.

32. New England* (12-4) – Nelson Agholor, WR USC

– I originally had Cam Erving mocked here, but La’el Collins snafu with the law caused a shake-up and now I’m sending one of my favorite WRs in the draft to Belichick. The Patriots have not drafted a serviceable wide receiver in years and Agholor has enough Odell Beckham to his game to change that recent phenomenon and be an early contributor on an offense lacking an option with his skill set.