Case for a 2016 Ameer Abdullah Breakout
RWNation GUEST POST by @Chef_Robbie_
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I’m a Nebraska fan, but don’t confuse me as a Trashman homer. All I’m interested in is finding RB value on the board. I’ve watched every carry of Ameer Abdullah’s at Nebraska and even followed his recruiting in high school (was an under-recruited guy out of Alabama and Rivals.com slapped him with a 5.7, 3-star ranking — probably because of size). He chose NU pretty late after he waited and realized Nick Saban at Bama was only sniffing around him as a DB project. Abdullah ended up being a gem at Nebraska, ranking 2nd all-time in Big Ten all-purpose yards behind Ron Dayne.

This is my two cents on ‘Dullah for 2016 redraft purposes:

Concerns:

1. I was actually pretty surprised how easy he was for defenders to take down in 2015, his first year in Detroit as a pro. If a defender took a solid lick on him, he didn’t shed many tackles and failed to generate the YAC expected.

2. Continuity of new OL. Will the improved Lions OL stable put it together and actually open holes for him in the run game? (also see positives)

3. A very capable passing-down back in Theo Riddick eating into his catches out of the backfield.

Positives:

1. Pass catching. I think it’s totally reasonable for Abdullah to catch 4-5 balls a game and have 60-80 receptions this year. Without Stafford relying on Calvin near the goal line for jump balls, you could easily see a bit of a ‘Danny Woodhead’-flavor with Abdullah inside the 15. One TD reception every 3 weeks = 5-6 receiving TDs.

2. OL improvement. Here’s the Football Outsiders rankings of the 2015 Lions Offensive Line:

22nd – Adjusted Line Yards (run blocking).

29th – Stuffed Percentage. On 24% (!) of runs last year, the Lions RBs were tackled (at or before) the LOS.

If the Lions have growth in the OL play (which they should), Abdullah will be the primary beneficiary. It’s not that crazy to project an improvement from garbage to league-average OL play considering the resources allocated to building the Lions OL for the future in recent seasons.

3(a). Taking advantage of burned owners last year. Recency bias will keep many off of Abdullah, who, in 2015, ascended to a fourth-round ADP by August based on offseason hype alone and gave basically zero return on that investment.

3(b). Taking advantage of players who gloss over Abdullah and say “he’s a timeshare/3rd down back/not a volume workhorse.” For any non-believers who question Abdullah’s ability to run inside the tackles “because of his size,” check out this run back in the 2013 Capital One Bowl vs. Georgia his true sophomore year.

That was the first time I thought to myself “this dude is going to be special.” Epitomizes his vision, running style, and his strength of maximizing yardage at the second level.

As mentioned on the RosterWatch radio show this week, fantasy players in this day and age are too quick to label RBs as partial/role-sharing type players. A lot of RB’s do fit that mold, but I’m not so sure that’s Abdullah in 2016.

4. Year 2 in the offense/NFL. Obviously, he’s going to have a better feel for the game and offense after a year of getting his feet wet.

5. His work ethic/character. Following him intensely the last 5 years, the dude is a winner. (Editor’s Note: he’s one of the most down-to-earth and genuine people we’ve had the opportunity to meet during a week of Senior Bowl practices). He comes from a family of like 10 children and his brothers and sisters are basically all doctors and lawyers. The guy is driven and has a good head on his shoulders.

In sum, I don’t think Ameer will be a fantasy RB1 in 2016, but if you’re going WR-heavy early, I wouldn’t feel the least bit shorted with him as my RB2 and a guy like Carlos Hyde as my RB1.

Never forget Eric Weddle being put in a body bag

Ameer Abdullah with a ridiculous 24-yard TD and Eric Weddle has no idea if he just saw a blur or a human #DETvsSD http://t.co/3jQyfi2zDv

— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2015

Follow @Chef_Robbie_ on Twitter.

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