PRO Betting Picks Against the Spread: Value Index Tool – Week 11
The Value Index Algorithm (VIA) aka “The ALGO” is a time-tested, proprietary NFL betting tool that predicts scores with 58-62% historical accuracy. The predicted margin of victory is compared to las Vegas spreads to determine value in every NFL game. The model was created in 2015 and has never produced a losing season. In 2021 the algorithm was amongst the top 30% in the Circa Sports Million Contest with its worst performing year. The Value Index Algorithm derives from investment modeling techniques used by veteran investment industry professional “Can’t Miss Mitch”.
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Value Index Tool by Can’t Miss Mitch
Detroit @ New York Giants (-3) Sunday 1pm
The Giants are one of top rushing offenses, ranked 3rd YTD and averaging 165 yards/game with Saquon Barkley leading the league in scrimmage yards per game and a mobile QB in Daniel Jones. Surprisingly, the Lions are ranked 10th YTD in rushing yards per game even with a banged-up D’Andre Swift, averaging 130 yards/game on the ground. But, Detroit is well rounded on the offensive side of the ball, ranked 8th YTD in passing yards/game while the G-Men are ranked 29th. Defensively, the Lions are awful and have been ranked 32nd, but, in their last 3 games, they are allowing opponents 6 points less than their YTD average.
Value Index Prediction: Detroit 23.71 – 22.49 New York
Pick: Detroit
Value: 4.22
*****
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+3.5) Sunday 4:25 pm
Cincy looks like they are back on track, they are averaging 3.1 TDs/game and just allowing 1.9 TDs/game. The Bengals have one of the best 3rd down % at 49.56% while limiting opponents to just 38/39%. The Steelers have struggled to get to the QB prior to TJ Watt’s return, ranked 27th in sack percentage, which could be a nice relief for Burrow as his offensive line is allowing defenses a 8.67% sack percentage ranking them 26th. Cincy is ranked 5th their last 3 games averaging 30 points/game while Pittsburgh is putting up an anemic 14.3 points over the same time period.
Value Index Prediction: Cincinnati 27.02 – 18.71 Pittsburgh
Pick: Cincinnati
Value: 4.81
*****
Kansas City @ Los Angeles Chargers(+5.5) SNF
The Chiefs are ranked 1st in the league in scoring offense, points/play and TDs/game at 3.8. Justin Herbert leads the league in passes per game but the Chargers are averaging just 19.3 points/game over their last 3. LA’s defense has not been good either, allowing opponents 25.3 points/game, ranking them 29th. The Chargers defense is ranked 7th in RZ (TD) scoring % and they will need to limit a KC team that is ranked 2nd at a wild 74.36%.
Value Index Prediction: Kansas City 28.13 – 19.14 Los Angeles
Pick: Kansas City
Value: 3.49
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Need a Kicker because I need a win and points 5-5 still play-off eligible No IR Spots (holding MarqBrown as of this week so I have 1 good WR for ROS)
My Team PPR play 1 QB 2RB 3 WR 1 Flex
QB: JFields, DPrescott
RB: JamaalWilliams, DSwift, LFournette, DForeman, DMontgomery, RWhite
WR: GPickens KToney DSlayton MarqBrown(IR)
Hurting on Wide receiver (Kupp and Bateman owner)
Who do I drop for Kicker?
Also thinking: Trade Prescott and a RB like Fournette or Forman or Montgomery for a WR 2, if I can find a trading partner. Hate to drop Dak
thoughts?
drop fournette on the bye. tough to do it, but gotto be someone