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PRO Betting Picks Against the Spread: Value Index Tool – Week 13

The Value Index Algorithm (VIA) aka “The ALGO” is a time-tested, proprietary NFL betting tool that predicts scores with 58-62% historical accuracy. The predicted margin of victory is compared to las Vegas spreads to determine value in every NFL game. The model was created in 2015 and has never produced a losing season. In 2021, the algorithm was amongst the top 30% in the Circa Sports Million Contest with its worst performing year. The Value Index Algorithm derives from investment modeling techniques used by veteran investment industry professional “Can’t Miss Mitch”.

Gain access to the VIA’s picks for EVERY game of EACH week, along with helpful tools for sports betting, player props and more and by upgrading to a PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP.

 

Value Index Tool Week 13 by Can’t Miss Mitch

 

New York Jets  @ Minnesota (-3) Sunday 1pm 

 

The Jets defense is ranked 2nd the last 3 weeks giving up just 12.3 points/game. Mike White now under center looks like he gives the 19th ranked scoring offense a boost who’s just averaging 20.9 points/game YTD. Surprisingly, as great as Minnesota’s offense seems to be, they are just averaging 23.8 points/game YTD. The Vikings defense has been awful of late giving up a league leading 32 points/game over their last 3.

 

Value Index Prediction: New York 22.53 – 21.8 Minnesota

 

Pick: New York

 

Value: 3.73

 

*****

 

Miami @ San Francisco (-3.5) Sunday 4:05pm

 

A clash between the best offensive unit and defensive unit (the last 3 weeks) with Miami averaging 34.7 points/game and 49ers letting up 8.7 points/game. The 49ers are ranked 15th YTD in scoring offense averaging 22.6 points/game, and 24.3 points/game their last 3. San Francisco’s defense has some flaws as they are ranked in the bottom 1/3d in allowing 3rd down conversions at 41.61%. The Dolphins are averaging 3.1 TDs/game and allowing 2.8 TDs/game, SF averages 2.6 TDs/game. 

 

Value Index Prediction: Miami 28.09 – 21.70 San Francisco

 

Pick: Miami

 

Value: 9.88

 

*****

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas (-1) Sunday 4:25pm

 

The Raiders offense has been on fire of late(last 3 games) averaging 27.3 points/game ranked right behind KC and Buffalo and ahead of Philadelphia. LA’s offense has been consistent averaging 22.9 points YTD and over the last 3 weeks are at 22.7 points/game. The Chargers defensive unit has been underwhelming ranked 29th while Vegas is ranked 26th. These teams played each other in week 1 with LA winning at home 24-19. Expect a different outcome with Raiders putting up more points this time.

 

Value Index Prediction: Las Vegas 30.07 – 23.39 Los Angeles

 

Pick: Las Vegas

 

Value: 5.67

 

16 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By R A

    Big decisions this week. Full PPR

    TE: Dulcich or Bellinger (if he’s active)

    Flex: Burks, Swift, Rachaad White, or Kyren

    SF: TB12 or Mike White

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Greg D is likely the better option, though it’s gloomy

      We like Burks, he has been getting better every week. Tough matchup today but roll with him

      Saints have played Tampa well, go with Mike White, but there is floor risk here.

      Good luck!

  2. ↓ Post By HebrewHammer

    Tua or Fields at qb this week?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Floor vs upside play. If you are an underdog go with Fields, if its close and can live with 200 yards and 1 TD Tua might be your man

      1. ↓ Post By ted.emerson

        What about Fields vs Burrow? Feels like Burrow is the safer play / more likely to be in a shootout.

  3. ↓ Post By DirtyFozzie

    I need to sit 1 out of this group: Waddle, Metcalf, Kirk or Garrett Wilson.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      All very close but GW is the one we would lean to. Min is vulnerable to the pass

  4. ↓ Post By Longlooper

    PPR
    Brian Robinson or AJ Dillon in flex ?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Very close. ranked b2b, but AJ Dillon could be in that clock killer mode. We lean him. B-Rob has been crushing though. No shade if you play him

  5. ↓ Post By great1nel@yahoo.com

    HELP! Amari Cooper or Garrett Wilson

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      GW is the play. Great options, but go with Wilson against a Vikings pass defense that isn’t that good

  6. ↓ Post By Raf

    1PPR:
    QB: Fields or Dak?
    RB: R.White, L.Murray or Swift?

  8. ↓ Post By Incognito

    Planning to playoffs week 15 — need a QB
    Watson and Lawrence on roster – Goff, White, Tannehill on waivers. Who would you start in week 15! I am leaning towards White v Lions. What do you think? Thanks b/t/w any news on Walker’s injury?

    Watson v Ravens
    Lawrence v Cowboys
    Goff @ jets
    White v LIons
    Tannehill @ Chargers

    1. ↓ Post By Incognito

      one other option — Tom Brady v Bengals thanks

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      White vs Lions stands out to us as well. Great call by you. Plan on Walker missing this week.

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