RWi Bill Byrne: Advanced Fantasy Drafting Concepts
With Age Comes Fantasy Draft Wisdom
Bill Byrne, Rosterwatch.com Featured Analyst
They know you are an old fart when you begin a sentence with “back in the day.” But “back in the day” in fantasy football is a very relative term. It was only a few years ago that I would go to my local fantasy draft and I’d see 11 other guys with their coolers of beer and their fantasy magazines.
I’d bring my bottle of wine and 3 sheets of paper. Back in the day, I’d totally own those guys.
Last week, we held our local fantasy draft and everyone brought their coolers of beer – and their laptops. Except for me and one other guy. I still brought that bottle of wine and my three sheets of paper (formatted very similar to the lists that Byron supplied in his Three Step Draft Guide). By the way, the other guy had his cooler of beer and a fake leather folder with his draft notes. While the rest of the owners pulled up their easy-draft programs supplied by their favorite website, me and the other guy talked football and it was easy to know who the other shark was.
With all of that software armed against us, once again, both of us proceeded to crush those guys with the pre-loaded computer drafting tools. I can’t speak for the other guy, but I owned that draft using just a few advanced drafting concepts.
I call the most important one “Target Drafting By Round.”
Rd…Player..ADP..FPTs..Bye..Schedule – S=season, P=playoffs….Notes
I knew in advance that I drew the first pick in the snake draft for this 20 round 12 team PPR league. I seldom decide in advance how to play the early rounds. But since I had the ‘hammer’ for this draft I decided to put maximum pressure on the other owners and go RB RB RB. The idea was to take three studs so that the other owners would panic and take (inferior) RBs early as well and allow my other targets to fall to me. By analyzing the tiered rankings against the ADPs, and the strength of schedules, I created a small list of less than a handful of draft targets for each round. Here is a partial example:
RD 1.
Ray Rice 1.02 342 b8 SC: S++P++
Could have taken Foster but would have had to use a 5/6 round handcuff pick on Tate; My handcuff for Rice will be Bobby Rainey in the 17th round.RD 2/3.
Darren Sproles 2.09 248, SC: S++P+
Steven Jackson 2.08 239 SC: S+P+
Ryan Mathews 2.10 224 SC: S+++
Doug Martin 3.09 216 SC: S+P+
Trent Richardson 3.03 214 SC: P+RD. 4/5.
Matt Ryan 4.12 340 SC: S++ P+
Percy Harvin 4.08 255 SC: neutral
Antonio Brown 5.05 224 SC: P+
Michael Vick 5.12 320 SC: S+P+ injury riskRD. 6/7.
Jay Cutler 8.03 308 SC: S+P+
Jeremy Maclin 6.03 216 SC: S+P+
Eric Decker 6.05 216 SC: S+P+
Vernon Davis 5.12 202 SC: S++P+++
Jonathan Stewart 6.12 183 SC: S+RD. 8/9.
Jermaine Gresham 10.04 178 SC: P-
Greg Little 10.10 190 SC: S-P–
Kenny Britt 8.06 187 SC: S- 3 game injury/suspension
Pierre Thomas 10.04 157 SC: S+P+RD. 10/11.
Greg Olsen 11.09 174 SC: S-
Jared Cook 11.06 172 SC: S-P-
Mike Williams 12.02 182 SC: S++P+
Kendall Hunter 11.01 124 SC: neutral
I only needed to do three mocks to see they were all solid teams. Here’s the best of them:
1. Ray Rice
2. Darren Sproles
3. Ryan Mathews
4. Matt Ryan
5. Antonio Brown
6. Jonathan Stewart
7. Torrey Smith
8. Greg Little
9. Mike Williams
10. Jermaine Gresham
11. Greg Olsen
12. Jonathan Baldwin
13. Ronnie Brown
14. Doug Baldwin
15. Steve Smith (STL)
The point of Target Drafting by Round is not to stick exactly to a script, but to use the targets as your value benchmarks.
When greater value falls to you than your targets, you ignore your targets and take advantage of the greater value. What actually ended up happening in the real draft was a good example of that. Harvin was gone, but Dez Bryant was there. At pick 7.01 I ignored other options and took Ben Tate.
Which leads me to my second advanced drafting concept – “Defensive Drafting.”
This draft went like many local drafts do, with quarterbacks going too early. Rodgers, Brady and Brees went in order. Damn! Foster fell to my friend in the 5 hole, so I drafted defensively in round 7 where I went ‘off script’ to take Ben Tate. I’d expected the Foster owner to handcuff him earlier. At round 7, Tate became both a defensive pick and a value pick!
In round 12 I took my third TE, since I noticed that the other guy had ignored the position completely. I took the last of the second tier tight ends as another defensive pick. Since this is a double flex league, I can use two of them as a flex anyway if I have to.
Now it’s time to see how that draft actually went down:
1. RB Ray Rice
2. RB Steven Jackson
3. RB Doug Martin
4. WR Dez Bryant
5. QB Matt Ryan
6. WR Eric Decker
7. RB Ben Tate
8. TE Jermaine Gresham
9. WR Greg Little
10. WR Jonathan Baldwin
11. TE Jared Cook
12. TE Greg Olsen
13. WR Malcolm Floyd
14. RB Ryan Williams
15. WR Steve Smith (STL)
16. QB Russell Wilson
17. RB Bobby Rainey
18. WR Josh Gordon
plus D and K to finish the draft.
Some things never change. Every year I’m still in the money against these computer guys, and this looks like a very strong team for a 12 team ppr league to me. Do you agree?
