Breshad Perriman’s Injury Still Nebulous, Chris Moore Officially in Play
RosterWatch Nation was significantly deflated to learn of Ravens second-year WR Breshad Perriman again having his season derailed before it could even start. Reports surfaced over the weekend of a “partial tear” to his (other) knee during a similar episode of the dreaded non-contact variety.
For injury information, we always turn to our good friend and Medical Advisor to SiriusXM Sports Dr. David Chao. Dr. Chao wrote about Perriman’s injury in-depth in his latest Monday Morning MD column at the National Football Post.
“Perriman’s second opinion is coming today. I hope he beats the odds and it is found that his ACL is not completely torn. Apparently the wide receiver did finish practice after the non-contact injury before reporting with swelling the following day. This also favors an isolated tear without associated cartilage injury. His main chance is to hope the finding is a spurious MRI diagnosis and that his knee is stable. Unfortunately, I think that possibility is less than 5%, as in my 17 years as an NFL team physician I’ve never encountered a true partial ACL tear.”
So, we get a little good news with the second-opinion talk and the fact that he finished practice being promising. Then Dr. Chao brings us back to reality by saying it’s less than a five-percenter and that he’s never encountered a truly “partial” tear.”
Chao went on to give the news we’ve all been dreading as Perriman owners in dynasty:
“The likelihood is that Perriman will need formal ACL reconstruction which would mean missing his second straight season. Sometimes compensation plays a role but there is no direct indication that there is any relationship to his PCL injury on his other knee.”
Reports from early Tuesday had terrific news, insinuating that Perriman might have hit the 5-percenter:
Per source, Ravens WR Breshad Perriman does NOT have a torn ACL. He received a stem-cell injection today. Expected to be OK for season.
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) June 14, 2016
Ravens' WR Breshad Perriman does not have a torn ACL and "will be fine for the season", per source. Received stem-cell injection today.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 14, 2016
Then, later Tuesday, Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) tweeted this — a view on the injury that presumably gives clarification to the reports received by non-medical experts such as Mike Florio and Adam Schefter.
Perriman's ACL is "torn." It's a Grade II sprain. There's a question about whether it will heal. Doctors disagree so why not try injection?
— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) June 14, 2016
I think we can say it’s better news than expected for Perriman based on Dr. Chao’s initial thoughts, but it still puts aspects of the 2016 season in doubt. It’s extremely likely that Perriman will a) miss the beginning of the season; b) suffer a re-aggravation in-season; c) be not at 100% of his potential explosiveness as he recovers on the job or d) any combination of these factors.
Our first takeaway from this is that Perriman remains a “hold” in dynasty, albeit an incredibly frustrating one. You can’t trade him now, but you can’t drop him. Fans who’d held steady through his lost first season had legitimate hopes pinned to a Year 2 breakout from the uber-athletic size/speed combo. The obvious player whose stock will gain the greatest momentum within the industry if Perriman’s recovery stalls for redraft and dynasty purposes will be Kamar Aiken.
We also expect more support for an option in Mike Wallace who actually projects to play the same sort of role Perriman would have as a down-the-field burner. As things stand, Wallace has been undervalued in early MFL10s and has a 12th round ADP in early redraft leagues per FFcalculator — which seems a bit too low even if assuming the most positive take on the Perriman news. Stephen Gostkowski and Mohammed Sanu should not be being selected ahead of Mike Wallace.
RosterWatch Nation knows where we feel the real values lies, though. It’s in rookie WR Chris Moore, formerly of Cincinnati.
We’d said even before the Perriman injury that Perriman owners should target Moore in Round 4 of dynasty rookie drafts simply due to our belief that at least one (and possibly both) of those players could legitimately end up as fantasy studs. It’s not a traditional “handcuff,” but more of a hedge within the same system. Now, with Perriman’s progression likely at least somewhat hindered in 2016, it makes our feelings about Moore’s potential role (even as early as his rookie season) even stronger.
Moore now becomes a player we’re comfortable selecting as early as Round 3 of dynasty rookie drafts and Round 12-13 in MFL10s. He’ll be squarely in play once training camp gets kicked up in earnest to be considered as a late-round flier even for traditional redraft leagues. As always, please refer to the dynasty cheat sheet for final decisions in your dynasty leagues and the redraft cheat sheet once it becomes available for your season-long contests.