David Nelson vs. Jets – NFL Week 9

David Nelson vs. Jets – NFL Week 9
Alex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.com 

I’m torn on this, since my miserable, injury-ridden squad faces The Trashman this week, who will be starting Nelson.

Any time The Fantasy Freegan tosses a bit of garbage like David Nelson from out of the stinkhole he resides in into his starting lineup, my eyebrows raise a little. This is a guy who hurts people with monster games out of the likes of Doug Baldwin, Steve Breaston, Early Doucet and Naman Freaking Roosevelt on a weekly basis in the perpetual revolving door that is his WR3 slot.

The Jets are a great pass defense. Only 7 completions have been thrown on Revis all season. 7 completions, 4 picks. That man is earning his money in a very non-Chris-Johnson manner. Crime Time is no scrub either.

Then I saw the Trashman’s angle. The possession receiver. I watched the tape, checked the game logs, and now I see where he is going with this; And I don’t like it one bit.

Dallas TE ¬†Jason Witten killed it on the Jets, most of his production coming when motioning to the Z and running intermediate crosses. Ed Dickson was the Ravens leading receiver. Michael Bush was the Raiders leading pass catcher on skinny wheel routes. The leagues seminal possession WR, New England’s Wes Welker burned them for 124. Versus the Dolphins, Matt Moore looked to his over-the-middle safety blanket in Brandon Marshall to the tune of 109 yards while the versatile Antonio Gates of San Diego burned them for 54 and a TD.

That is a pattern, ladies and gentlemen. As we know here at Rosterwatch, you need to identify situations for what they are- and quickly. This is a short season and there is real money in the pot.

The Bills over-the-top “no-name” burner, Donald Jones, returns this week in his first appearance after the Oct. 9th injury. With Revis sure to be on Stevie Johnson, Jones will draw the short-side corner. The reason being, RB Fred Jackson presents a huge threat not only in the box, but as a pass catcher in the flats and in the screen game., FS Eric Smith (who plays like a SS) will not be the first line of defense against Jones with over-the-top ball-hawking from Cromartie as Smith will have flow towards that perimeter on passing/play-action downs. Basically, they will have to separate that responsibility if they don’t want to get burned.

David Nelson is a pure possession WR, perfectly fitted for Gailey’s system. I like him more than any of the Bills WRs this week, unfortunately. He’s been relatively quiet lately, he’s got great hands and a big body, and it might take them getting hit a couple of times before they realize he cannot be covered by a LB or a strong safety giving the middle up if they come out 4 wide and use Spiller as a decoy. Throw in the fact that Fitzpatrick is not in any shape to be taking big hits right now waiting on deep passes to develop against an elite set of corners, and we have the beginnings of what should be a good day for Nelson.

I think you could do a lot worse with your WR3 spot, and if you pick him up and start him- just realize I will be rooting against you. (which to this point in this league is a good sign.)

 

 

 

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