Third-year Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has been viewed as a major breakout candidate for 2014 and the Chicago Bears home opener against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 is the first step of that journey.

Jeffery is the second wideout on the depth chart behind fellow tall receiver Brandon Marshall. In 2014, Jeffery pulled down 89 balls for 1,421 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 16 yards per reception (3 yards per catch better than Brandon Marshall).

It would not be surprising at all to see Jeffery eclipse 100 receptions this year and reach double-digit touchdowns. How much can Jeffery help your fantasy team during week 1? Let’s take a look at the positives and negative of this matchup.

Positives

– The System: Marc Trestman’s system works, plain and simple. He’s the QB Whisperer. It was proven last year and big things are expected out of the offense this year as well. Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Jeffery are excellent fits in Trestman’s offense. Jeffery is not a burner, but he can go long and his sneakily good route-running allows Jay Cutler to show off his deep ball. Between Cutler’s throwing ability and Marshall drawing probable double coverage, Jeffery has a chance to thrive in Trestman’s system in week 1. He has big, white Hamburger Helper gloves that squeeze the ball like vice grips.

– The Buffalo Bills corners: Leodis McKelvin had a career best year in 2014. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the 18th CB overall. Third-year CB Stephon Gilmore has tons of ability, but has been unable to stay healthy and put it all together. McKelvin faced more WR1s last year than Gilmore but Bills DC Coach Gym Shorts Jim Schwartz reportedly has lots of faith in Gilmore.

Regardless of which corner lines up against Jeffery, Marshall is going to draw the safety help. This will allow Cutler to expose the single coverage on Gilmore. The same Bills secondary (even with the long-gone Jairus Byrd) gave up the 5th-most points in the league to wide receivers last year. The Bills are currently ranked as RosterWatch’s No. 14 WR matchup of the week according to the calculations of the RosterWatch Matchup Tool.

– The Bears defense: Despite the additions of DLs Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen, the Bears defense should still be considered an absolute dumpster fire until proven otherwise. Because of Mel Tucker’s lackluster unit, the Bears offense is going to have to carry the day. Matt Forte will get plenty of work but look for the Bears to air it out some, especially if C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson do some damage.

Negatives

– The Bills pass rush: The Bills have arguably the most complete defensive line in the NFL featuring defensive ends Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes coupled with dynamic interior linemen and pass rushers Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. The Bills had 57 sacks last year (second only to Carolina’s 60). These guys get after the quarterback. It’s entirely possible to project that QB Jay Cutler could be in for a long day. The quicker the D-line can get to Cutler, the less pressure there is on the secondary when covering Marshall and Jeffery. However, Trestman is good at scheming against pressure from multiple angles and Bears offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer is an offensive line guru who helped this unit improve dramatically last year.

– Tempo of the Game: One of the biggest threats to Jeffery’s fantasy outlook in Week 1 is the Bears getting up on the Bills early. The Bills offense has looked inept and highly drafted rookie Sammy Watkins is already banged up. If the Bears defense is able to get to Bills QB E.J. Manuel and the Bears put points up efficiently, Trestman may be tempted to take his foot off the gas and let Matt Forte or maybe even rookie rock-toter Kadeem Carey close out the game.

DECLASSIFIED: Alshon Jeffery’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

I like Jeffery’s chances of a great Week 1 quite a bit. Based on the Bills weak secondary (Gilmore is reportedly playing injured) Jeffery will be a capable WR2 start this week. All factors considered, I would expect Jeffery to get 6 receptions, about 95 yards and one touchdown. 12 fantasy points in traditional scoring leagues is a reasonable expectation.

Start him!

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