RosterWatch Nation, did Shabz deliver or did Shabz deliver on Austin Seferian-Jenkins in Week 1?

ASJ finished with a nice stat line of 5 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. Not bad for one of the cheaper guys on DraftKings and FanDuel. We started off the 2015 fantasy season with a bang – now it’s time to keep this train rolling…

Play for your share of $100,000 – FREE – This Weekend ONLY at DraftKings.

Andre Ellington is hurt and in other news water is wet.

I love Ellington. I did a column last year and said he had the ability to be as good as DeMarco Murray IF he could stay healthy. I’ve come to accept that he’s always going to be banged up. Ellington could be out for a week or a considerable amount of time; nobody knows. What should you do if you’re an Ellington owner or you just need a fill-in for another week of missing Le’Veon Bell? Or if you want a high-upside, cheap guy in daily? “I can’t wait to draft Chris Johnson!” – said no one in the last four years. Johnson hasn’t been a fantasy monster since Aaron Hernandez was walking the streets free and people thought Matt Barkley was going to go in the first round. But there is a guy you should be excited to pick up off waivers or draft in daily fantasy: rookie Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson.

I’ll admit up front I’ve got a huge Johnson bias, and I don’t mean the ones in banana hammocks. I was a big fan of Johnson coming out of Northern Iowa and he was a RosterWatch favorite at the 2015 Senior Bowl. He’s got the size and pass-catching ability you want out of a versatile third-round pick. Johnson did damage in Week 1 with a 55-yard reception that he took to the house for six.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for David Johnson while considering his fantasy value in Week 2 versus the Chicago Bears.

Positives

– Size/Long-Speed: I love Johnson’s frame. He’s 6’1” and 224 lbs. There’s a reason he used to play wide receiver. His body type means he can take more punishment (hopefully) than Andre Ellington. He’s got great long-speed as evidenced by his 55 yard score in Week 1. If he gets in open space he’s a long-strider who can take it to the house and shake some tacklers. It gives him huge upside.

– Hands: He’s a natural receiver with soft hands. He’s the best pure-receiving back RosterWatch has evaluated since starting to cover the Senior Bowl live in 2011. On top of that, he’s got great hand size which helps with his ball security. He already could be argued as the best receiving back on the Cardinals.

– Matchup: The Chicago Bears shit show dumpster fire defense gave up 133 rushing yards and one score to the Packers. The Packers didn’t use Eddie Lacy as a receiver a ton out of the backfield, but he was effective when they did, despite looking too fat to start the season once again. I love this matchup. The Bears are in the middle of the pack in run defense.

– Quarterback Play: He’s not a receiver, so why care about quarterback play? Because David Johnson, if he does see more snaps on Sunday, will still not be the focal point of the offense. Carson Palmer will be pushing the ball downfield to Larry Fitzgerald and Downtown John Brown. Because of the deep threat of Brown, there’s no way the Bears will be stacking the box. John Fox is too conservative for that. Competent quarterback play from Palmer forces the defense to back off a bit leaving plenty of room underneath for David Johnson. It’s easy to forget that when healthy, Carson Palmer has been a beast in Arizona.

Negatives

– Limited Carries/Snaps: Here’s the rub and my biggest hangup with starting/picking up/drafting David Johnson. Bruce Arians has publicly stated he doesn’t think it’s healthy to lean on rookie running backs. That being said, it doesn’t mean he won’t do it. Chris Johnson, unfortunately, will likely get the bulk of snaps while Ellington is out. However, we could see some decent snaps for David Johnson on passing downs.

– Limited Change of Direction: He is not going to turn on a dime like Le’Veon Bell. He’s a little too deliberate in his cuts and his change of direction is choppy. Not a guy who is going to drive your running game with some inside zone. He often doesn’t hit the hole or find lanes with enough authority.

– Rookie Status: He’s a rookie with one regular-season reception on two targets. It was a damn good one but still one. There’s no guarantee he breaks out this week because we don’t know any kind of trends or patterns for him at the next level.

– Return of Ellington: This won’t hurt your opinion of him in daily fantasy (at least for Week 2) but it’s a consideration you must make in redraft leagues. When Ellington gets back he’s going to get the bulk of the carries again and will Arians use David or Chris Johnson to supplement him? Hard to say.

DECLASSIFIED: David Johnson’s Week 2 Fantasy Outlook

Where I love him is in daily fantasy. He’s only $4200 on Drafkings. That’s cheaper than Isaiah Crowell, Benny Cunningham, and LeGarrette Blount who is going into a nightmare scenario against a Buffalo defense who is ready to hammer him and has to share time with Dion Lewis.

In reality, he’s an RB3 moving forward on the season, but he has the capability to score like a RB1 this week. All factors considered, I expect David Johnson to get two carries for probably ten yards, three catches for 55 yards and another receiving touchdown in Week 2 versus the Bears.