DECLASSIFIED: Fantasy Football Debrief Heading Into 2015
As usual, it has been a crazy roller-coaster of a season in fantasy football (and the real world) for 2014. About a million things happened that nobody saw coming. Who saw Delanie Walker or Coby Fleener as legit TE1s before the season? Cam Newton, who has been a fantasy stud, was only the 16th best fantasy quarterback. Calvin Johnson wasn’t even a top 10 WR while rookies Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. look like surefire WR1s for 2015.
I’ve spent the 2014 preseason and regular season trying to find diamonds in the rough; lesser-known players that could bring you fantasy gold. I could write 2000-word diatribes about how great Demaryius Thomas is but that doesn’t do much for your fantasy team. There were some big hits and a few swings-and-misses. But I think it’s important to look back at your own analysis and see what went wrong, what went right, and why. So without further ado here is your Declassified Debrief.
– Justin Hunter: Quarterback play/inconsistency had a hand in Hunter’s poor play. Locker as I expected was unable to stay healthy. Hunter has all the physical tools and abilities but he still has major issues with drops and the mental aspects of the game. He was really banged up this year. He failed to put it altogether and you have to wonder what his future looks like.
Grade: D+
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Really hard to tell. Tennessee has a ton of needs and I doubt Whisenhunt gives up on Hunter yet. I think you’ll be lucky if he’s a WR3/FLEX option next year in redraft.
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– DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has to be my best call of the season. I loved what he brought to the table coming out of Clemson and he has exceeded expectations in his second year in the NFL. He’s had the 13th most fantasy points of any receiver and he’s been thrown to by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage, and Case Keenum. Imagine when he gets a good QB!
Grade: A+
2015 Fantasy Forecast: He’s a sneaky WR1 next year that you’ll get cheap. I already like him better than Jeremy Maclin (prior to seeing where he ends up in 2015) and Emmanuel Sanders.
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– Andre Ellington: He is such a dynamic player when he’s healthy. That’s the big qualifier, though. This year proved he can’t be a bell-cow back which everyone but Bruce Arians knew. The hits and the wear and tear on his body was just too much. He put up solid RB1 to RB2 numbers when he was in he just couldn’t stay on the field.
Grade: B+
2015 Fantasy Forecast: If he returns to good health he could be a streaming RB2 or at least
FLEX play. You can’t invest much draft capital in him. He had an ADP of 20 in PPR leagues this year. That won’t happen again.
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– Alshon Jeffery: Jeffery’s been a monster this season and I expect more of the same next year regardless of who is in at QB. He did only put up five catches and 71 yards in the matchup I highlighted but the Bills have been doing that to a lot of receivers.
Grade: B-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: He was a top 10 fantasy wideout this year and I expect more of the same next year regardless of who is under center.
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– Markus Wheaton: He should’ve dominated the first time he was up against the Ravens this year but he had a pedestrian game. He was targeted a bunch but had trouble getting on the same page with Roethlisberger. I expected him to be the Steelers No.2 WR because I didn’t expect Martavis Bryant to become the legitimate No.2 by the final five weeks of the season.
Grade: C-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: He’s a streaming option at best next year. I still love his talent but Martavis Bryant is the money maker.
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– Niles Paul: Paul had two solid games of 6.8 and 6 points. Not bad for a streamer. Once Jordan Reed got back, he was relegated back to limited snaps like I expected.
Grade: C
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Don’t bother.
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– Blake Bortles: He had a bad rookie season. There’s no getting around it. He did what a lot of rookie passers do: he made poor decisions, stared down receivers, and had issues with accuracy and seeing coverages. I still think he has a ton of potential. They need to get this kid some protection. He was getting killed.
Grade: D-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: I’d be leery of drafting him at all but I still think he ends up being a franchise quarterback, so he’s certainly a dynasty buy-low.
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– Bishop Sankey: Awful. Just awful. No Sank you, I say. The vision I saw on his college tape wasn’t there at all. No explosiveness. No understanding of the pro game. Absolutely my worst call.
Grade: F
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Didn’t think he should be drafted highly in fantasy leagues to begin with. I’m not touching him before the very, very late rounds next year, if at all.
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– Branden Oliver: He was excellent in Week 5 and he did quite well in the matchup I highlighted going for 18.4 points. He fell off quite a bit after Ryan Mathews “got back” (is he ever really ‘back’?) but closed 2014 out nicely.
Grade: A-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Possible late round guy since Mathews will never be fully healthy.
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– Andre Holmes: Up-and-down year for a player with a lot of potential but not enough consistency.
Grade: D+
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Late round flier kind of a guy. Depends on what Raiders do in the draft/free agency
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– Bryce Brown: I warned you guys that he was going to be atrocious and don’t believe the hype.
Grade: A
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Don’t even think about it unless every runner in the Buffalo stable is shipped off.
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– Martavis Bryant: He’s been a little spotty at times, but in the Week 9 matchup I highlighted he earned fantasy owners 16.7 points and followed that up with 20.3 the next week.
Grade: A
2015 Fantasy Forecast: This kid has a really bright future. He’s an easy WR2 that you could get on the cheap in drafts next year. The thing about him is that he’s so raw this year. Give him another full offseason in the NFL and he’s going to turn some heads.
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– Mychal Rivera: I anticipated him getting garbage points against Denver that week and he came through with 12.4 in standard leagues off the waiver wire.
Grade: B+
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Not much more than a streaming TE next year. Don’t bother drafting him. Still a hold in dynasty leagues as he has some growing ahead of him (hopefully in a less anemic offense) with Derek Carr.
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– John Brown: The week I highlighted him, Brown had a middling performance against a superb defense. Shouldn’t have bet against Detroit’s defense on this one. A modest 6.9 points from Brown that week.
Grade: C-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: I like him as a late round guy but he’s so hit-or-miss you can’t count on him much. A lot depends on quarterback play next year. Still a strong “hold” in dynasty as Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t think he’ll be back in Arizona next year.
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– Jarvis Landry: The week I highlighted him was the last game Landry scored in all year. He put up a nice 17 point game with a couple late touchdowns.
Grade: B+
2015 Fantasy Forecast: I really like his value for next year. Good mid-round guy that could be a PPR monster like Welker was in New England.
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– Isaiah Crowell: He had a really rough outing against a stout Bills defense the week I highlighted him. He serves as another reminder to not to get too cute with good defenses.
Grade: C-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Crowell will be on a committee once again with Terrance West. Tough to see what his value looks like next year. The Browns seems to love anointing a new starter from week to week and not letting fantasy owners know in advance.
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– Dan Herron: Had a mediocre game against the Browns with 7.1 points when he was highlighted on Declassified, but I only expected about 10 out of him that week.
Grade: B-
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Not worth drafting, especially with the return of Vick Ballard and possibly Ahmad Bradshaw and his Frankenstein foot. Possible streaming option.
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– Johnny Football: Immediately after I wrote up Johnny as a possible big-time daily league steal he went out and had one of the worst rookie performances I’ve ever seen. He looked woefully unprepared and made the Bengals defense look All-World. The line looked like they had no interest in blocking for him, his receivers ran lazy routes, Shanahan seemed to keep the exact same gameplan as when Hoyer was in, and that’s not even including everything Manziel himself did wrong. He stared down receivers, had no sense of the pocket, constantly threw off his backfoot, and tried to run through lanes that didn’t exist. Total dumpster fire. In my final column for the regular season, I talked about “Good Johnny and Bad Johnny”. We got all Bad Johnny.
Grade: Big fat F
2015 Fantasy Forecast: Not even worth thinking about drafting until we hear reports from the spring. I’m now not entirely sure if he can be among the 32 best QBs in the NFL – let alone a franchise QB or even fantasy-relevant one.
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Well RosterWatch Nation, it’s been real. It’s been fun. Actually it’s been real fun. It truly is a pleasure to work with the best analysts in the business and have such a knowledgeable, fun fan base. The offseason is RosterWatch’s season, so let’s get strapped in for 2015!
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Thanks Luke!