DECLASSIFIED: Justin Hunter Scouting Report and 2014 Fantasy Outlook
Luke Shabro, RosterWatch Columnist

Justin Hunter, the second-year Tennessee Titans wide receiver, is one of the biggest boom-or-bust candidates in fantasy football for 2014.

Hunter has almost unlimited potential given his size (6’4”), speed (4.44 40-yard dash) and wingspan (78-inches; same as A.J. Green). Hunter’s biggest limitations are inexperience in a new offense, instability at the quarterback position and failure to attack the ball when trying to make the catch.

When Hunter was drafted last year, NFL Films guru and friend of RosterWatch Greg Cosell called him “the most intriguing” and “the most physically talented” wideout in the 2013 Draft. Hunter had a pedestrian 2013 season, though, as he hauled in 18 receptions for only four touchdowns. One not worth mentioning, however, is that Hunter averaged 19.7 yards per catch and was competing with Kendall Wright, Nate Washington and Kenny Britt for snaps.

There are a number of positives and negatives to consider when looking at Hunter’s fantasy potential in 2014 and beyond:

Positives

– Coaching: Hunter’s new head coach is Ken Whisenhunt, who did a remarkable job with rookie wideout Keenan Allen. Whisenhunt clearly sees a big role for Hunter in this year’s offense as the Titans did not draft a wide receiver in one of the deepest receiver classes in recent history, despite the fact that besides Kendall Wright and Nate Washington, all other receivers on the roster (Marc Mariani, Michael Preston and Derek Hagan) are far beyond underwhelming.

– Physical Ability: Hunter has excellent physical tools that cannot be taught. He is a long strider with deep speed to get past defenders. Hunter has the vertical leaping ability and height to out jump even bigger corners in the mold of Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. Hunter does a great job of high pointing the ball. There’s a reason why Hunter was predominantly used in red-zone situations during limited 2013 snaps as a rookie.

– Quarterback Play: If Jake Locker is healthy, his play will likely be above average. That’s a big if, though – considering Locker’s history. A recently revamped offensive line looks to be a strength of the team and Locker has the kind of arm strength Whisenhunt can work with. Locker appeared to be developing a good chemistry with Hunter prior to Locker’s season-ending injury in 2013. If Locker goes down, however, it could get very ugly – very fast – with “Clipboard Jesus” Charlie Whitehurst and Zach “Sucker Punch” Mettenberger backing him up.

Negatives

– Mental Game: Offensive coordinator Jason Michael noted earlier in the offseason that Hunter had a ton of potential but still needed to refine his overall game including the “mental side” and his route running. Hunter himself admitted that he was often trying to figure out where he was supposed to be positioned. Additionally, he is learning a new offense already after only one year in the league and the game doesn’t tend to magically slow down for second-year wideouts.

– Drops: Hunter dropped five balls in 2013. That doesn’t seem like a huge number but he was only targeted 41 times. This statistic is unacceptable. He is likely to get at least twice as many targets in 2014 than he did in 2013, but those targets WILL drop significantly if he drops five out of every 40 balls thrown his way. Hunter doesn’t seem to have nearly as hard of a time with overthrown balls as he does with underthrown or balls thrown at his lower body. Part of the problem is he does not come back to the ball well or attack the ball with his hands. He’s a big-time body catcher in numerous instances which doesn’t present much of a problem on jump balls given his height but if he tries to catch it in the basket on lower balls he’s going to get stripped.

DECLASSIFIED: Fantasy Outlook

The bottom line is that Justin Hunter is a bit of a wild card.

His absolute ceiling this season is 2013 Keenan Allen-esque stats of about 60-70 catches with around 1000 yards and 7-8 touchdowns. The safe bet is that he’ll haul in around 45 catches with 600 yards receiving but probably pull in six touchdowns.

In traditional scoring leagues, Hunter has an average draft position (ADP) of 163. Based on Hunter’s natural physical talent, his progression and probability of increased playing time, he is a lower-tier WR3 option in 10-12-man traditional scoring leagues and worthy of a late-round flyer because of his upside. In PPR leagues, Hunter’s value is diminished significantly due to concerns about his drops and the fact that he is not yet a prototypical possession receiver.

Hunter’s true value lies in dynasty leagues due to his immense upside and the fact that Nate Washington will be 32 next year and Mariani, Preston and Hagan are, as mentioned previously, pure garbage. If Hunter can get his drops under control like players such as Brandon Marshall have done previously, the sky is the limit for him.