Second-year Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz is poised for a breakout year in 2014, but his growth as a player in year two may not equate to an incredibly productive fantasy season.

Ertz has tons of natural ability as a pass catcher, but like the majority of rookie tight ends, he struggled in his first year. He caught 36 balls for four touchdowns and gained 469 receiving yards. There was an expectation that Chip Kelly was going to run a lot of two-tight end sets in 2013 but that wasn’t really the case. In Ertz’s defense, 25 of his 36 catchers were for first downs and his targets increased as the year went on.

Ertz has the prototypical size for an NFL tight end at 6’5″ and 250 pounds. He’s fast enough with a 4.76 40-yard dash but he’s not a big-time blazer. Ertz posted 24 reps on the bench at the combine (the most in his position group). He runs great routes and because of his athletic ability he’s able to line up in the slot, giving him added versatility. After joint practices with the New England Patriots, Pats defensive end Chandler Jones called Ertz a “handful”. He fits well in Chip Kelly’s offensive system and he has the potential to be a serious contributor filling in for the targets left behind by former Eagles wideout Desean Jackson.

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So, we’ve established Ertz has heaps of potential and talent. However, he’s not an elite enough athlete to be an elite tight end with the likes of Gronkowski, Graham or Julius Thomas. Ertz’s ceiling is likely along the lines of a second-tier tight end like Greg Olsen or Jason Witten.

There are a lot of factors that will determine Ertz’ fantasy success in 2014…

Positives

– Physical Ability: Ertz has great size. He is a smooth, natural athlete who is very strong. Ertz has excellent body control (especially in the red zone). He has the capability to be a good run blocker, and like Witten, this may develop with time. Sometimes he doesn’t utilize his size enough to box out defenders when going for contested balls. He needs to use his frame more.

– Hands: Ertz has a smaller wingspan than a lot of pass-catching tight ends but he utilizes what he has well. He has soft hands and he puts the ball away quickly (he had no fumbles in 2013). Ertz had a drop rate of only 1.8% which is impressive for a guy that struggled with drops while in college.

– Growing Comfort in the System: Ertz has admitted that his head was swimming and he felt lost in the offense quite a bit during his rookie season. This year he has, presumably, fully grasped the offense and reportedly Nick Foles’ trust in Ertz has grown significantly. Additionally, Chip Kelly’s schemes gets players wide open in space. If you go back and look at all of Ertz’s catches in 2013 – yes, we have far too much time on our hands around here – very few of them were contested and most were caught while exposing zone coverage.

Negatives

– Run Blocking: One of the biggest reasons Ertz, despite his pass-catching ability, didn’t see the field more in 2013 was his run blocking. This was surprising because in Ertz’s college tape, he was an excellent run blocker, who, at times, was able to get to the second level and engage athletic linebackers in the open. Brent Celek is the superior run blocker on the Philly roster, but Ertz continues to get better. He has the strength and ability to be a better blocker; he just needs to work on his technique and angles at the NFL level. As his blocking gets better he will see more and more playing time. Chip Kelly will not put him on the field consistently in a run-heavy offense until he can trust Ertz in 11 and 12 personnel groupings.

– Crowded Target Group: There is a natural assumption that with the departure of DeSean Jackson and his 82 receptions and nine touchdowns that Ertz will be a major beneficiary. Ertz is likely to see more targets, but the amount of available targets on the Eagles makes Ertz’ prospects less promising. Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper are both still on the roster; Chip Kelly drafted underrated Jordan Matthews and former Oregon Duck Josh Huff; LeSean “Shady” McCoy is one of the best receiving backs in the league and Brent Celek is a sure-handed receiver and a tough SOB to boot (Don’t forget about overpaid fullback James Casey). Celek takes a lot of shots across the middle but keeps on ticking; Chip Kelly has a ton of trust in him. It doesn’t help Ertz’ cause to possibly be the 4th or even 5th receiving option on the team, regardless of the number of plays run in Chip Kelly’s incredibly high-tempo offense.

DECLASSIFIED: Fantasy Outlook for 2014

If you like “upside,” Ertz certainly has it. As mentioned, there are a ton of targets on the Eagles but Ertz has a legitimate shot at pulling down 10 touchdown grabs. Ertz got four last year as a rookie whose head was swimming as the second tight end in an offense that ran the ball on 49.6% of their offensive plays.

Chip Kelly has talked about the growth of Nick Foles – and as Foles gets more put on his plate he will likely look to a security blanket like Ertz. Not to mention, good tight ends typically break out in their second year. Jason Witten went from one touchdown in his rookie season to six in year two. Kyle Rudolph saw a six-touchdown increase in his second year in the league. It would be shocking if Ertz got less than six receiving touchdowns in 2014.

Based on the number of targets available, Ertz could reasonably have 55 receptions for 700 yards. Ertz could be a steal in redraft leagues this year. He’s currently being drafted around 102 overall. Ertz doesn’t offer much increased value in PPR leagues as he won’t be a #1 or #2 target like Vernon Davis or Jimmy Graham were last year.

The second-year tight end is an intriguing prospect in dynasty leaguse and could pay extremely big dividends as early as next year. Brent Celek turns 30 next year and will have a cap number of $4,800,000 with very limited dead money associated.

It’s clear to see that Ertz will be the #1 tight end in what will presumably be a top 5 offense in 2015.

The bottom line on Ertz for 2014 is if you can get him in round 7 or later he can provide some great value. His floor is being a TE2 and a decent play in leagues that allow flex eligibility to tight ends. If you can get him in the 9th or 10th round, you’re playing with house money.