Martin vs TRich vs Morris Fantasy Scoring Profile
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

Martin:

368 Touches
23 Touches/game
.72 Points/Touch (this is average- his production was a function of touches)
16.54 Fantasy Points Per Game
12.85 Median Fantasy Scoring
10-15 Points was range most frequently scored
Scored 10+ points 75% of the time
16 games played

Richardson:

318 Touches
21.20 Touches/game
.64 Points/Touch (scoring heavily dependent on volume of touches)
13.58 Fantasy Points Per Game
15.2 Median Fantasy Scoring
15-20 Points was range most frequently scored
Scored 10+ Points 73% of the time
15 games played

Alfred Morris:

346 Touches
21.63 Touches/game
.71 points/touch (see: Martin above)
15.39 Fantasy Points Per Game
13.65 Median Fantasy Scoring
10-15 Points was range most frequently scored
Scored 10+ points 75% of the time
16 games played

This is the rookie fantasy scoring data for these three Sophomore Studs. As you can see, they’re fantasy scoring profiles that are very similar. Yet, all of the hype surrounds Doug Martin, who is being selected much earlier in 2013 Fantasy Football Drafts than either Trent Richardson or Alfred Morris. Heck, many pundits have Martin as the second coming of Adrian Peterson in their Draft Rankings.

Don’t get us wrong, we LOVE Doug Martin. But, we are here to tell you that Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris are his fantasy equal- and they offer much better value in Fantasy Drafts.

In order to project for this season, we have to take all of the data above and apply what additional information we have coming in to this year:

(If you are reading this, you have access to RosterWatch Premium, and can find all similar tools, graphs and charts in the RW Fantasy Draft Guide.)

(Click on Graphs to Enlarge)

We know that Doug Martin cannot have many more touches. We know that Alfred Morris has not yet proven himself as a true threat for receptions, so it isn’t reasonable to project Morris to receive many more touches. Trent Richardson was on—by far—the worst team (and offense) of the three last season. The addition of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator in Cleveland is HUGE for Richardson (see: Emmitt Smith, Stephen Davis, Frank Gore, and LaDanian Tomlinson.)

Richardson is very likely to challenge for 24+ touches/game this season- the range for elite workhorse backs. Even if his scoring efficiency does not increase in year two, 3 extra touches per game equates to 2 more fantasy points per game. Just that would make Richardson a 15-17 point player.

The difference with Martin and Morris is our level of certainty. We’ve seen both of them exhibit elite upside and durability. We know they are in systems that work. Warranted or not, Richardson has taken on a bit of the “injury-prone” label, a critical consideration for fantasy owners. He only missed one game his rookie year.

All three backs have a tremendous propensity to score touchdowns. None of the three have any real competition for touches out of the backfield. Martin and Richardson are elite athletes, Morris is not, but he is very good at what he is asked to do. He just happens to be a perfect fit in a prolific rushing scheme tailored to his style.

Last year Martin and Morris flashed big upside on occasion, yet their “typical” weekly scoring profiles were inferior to Richardson- who conversely showed limited upside. Martin and Morris were usually 10-15 points guys, and Richardson was most frequently a 15-20 point scorer.

We don’t expect much to change for Martin and Morris in 2013, they should continue producing at levels similar to last year, while we expect Richardson’s scoring profile to become a bit more evenly distributed. Resulting in increased reliability, and an uptick in scoring potential.

Fantasy Football Drafts are all about value, and the value amongst these three lies in whomever you can draft the latest.