Top 25 RB Fantasy Scoring Profile Three-Year/One-Year
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

Here are the individual scoring profiles for the Top 25 running backs that data was available for. We provide a three year / one year comparison, so that we can can review production over a large sample against recent trends.

* Example of reading chart- See: Adrian Peterson 2012 / 7+ is read “Adrian Peterson scored 7 or more fantasy points 100% of the time 2012”

Adrian Peterson
-Elite reliability
-Demonstrates huge upside

Arian Foster
-Elite Reliability
-Scores 15+ fantasy points 75% of the time
-Better 3yr scoring than Peterson
-Reduced upside in 2012

Doug Martin
-Good reliability
-Scores 10-15 pt most often
-Explosive upside w/ good, but not elite frequency

Marshawn Lynch
– Near elite scoring profile
– AP-like w/ sightly less upside and reliability

Jamaal Charles
– Good upside
– Above average reliability, but not elite
– Stock up w/ Andy Reid and Alex Smith at the helm

Trent Richardson
– Good reliability
– Limited upside in 2012
– Scored between 15-20 points most often
– Stock up in a Norv Turner offense

CJ Spiller
– Good reliability
– Limited upside in 2012
– Majority of scoring occurred between 10-20 pt

Ray Rice
– Good reliability
– Evenly distributed scoring between 7-30 pts

LeSean McCoy
– Elite reliability
– Upside completely evaporated in 2012
– Stock moderately up under Chip Kelly

Alfred Morris
– Elite reliability
– Good upside

Matt Forte
– Average reliability
– Above average upside
– Stock up under Marc Trestman

Stevan Ridley
– Average reliability
– Limited upside
– Scores in the 15-20 pt range most often

Chris Johnson
– Below average reliability
– Good upside
– Has scored <7 pt most frequently the last 3yr - Stock up w/ improvements to offensive line

Steven Jackson
– Average reliability
– Limited upside 3yr/1yr
– Scores 10-15 pt most frequently
– Stock up in Atlanta

Frank Gore
– Above average reliability
– Limited upside
– Scores 10-15 pt most frequently

MJD

– Good reliability
– Above average upside
– Stock moderately down coming off of a season-ending foot injury

Darren McFadden
– Below average reliability
– Good upside 3yr / Limited upside 2012
– Scores <7 as frequently as 10-15 pt - Stock up with return of man/power scheme

DeMarco Murray
– Average reliability
– Good upside 2yr / Limited upside 2012
– Scores 7-10 pt most often over the last 2yr

Reggie Bush
– Below average reliability
– Good upside
– Scored <7 pt most frequently in Miami - Stock up in Detroit

Darren Sproles
– Nearly as reliable as Matt Forte over the last 2yr
– Limited upside
– Scores 10-15 pt most often
– Only averages 10 touches/gm
– Stock moderately up w/ return of Sean Payton

Ahmad Bradshaw
– Average reliability
– Above average upside
– Scores <7 pt most often

Ryan Mathews
– Below average reliability
– Moderate upside 3yr / Limited upside 2012
– Scores 7-10 pt most often

Rashard Mendenhall
– Below average reliability
– Above average upside
– Scored <7 most frequently last 3yr - Stock up in Arizona

Benjarvus Green-Ellis
– Slightly below average reliability
– Limited upside
– Almost identical 3yr/1yr scoring
– Stock moderately down w/ arrival of the rookie Bernard

Andre Brown
– Average to above average reliability
– Average upside
– Scored between 7-10 pt most often in 2012