Early Best Ball ADPs and Reactions
by Ani Sridhar – Twitter: @anisri23

It is officially best ball season and we are getting our first look at rookie ADPs and early trends in where players are going off the board.

If you loved the landing spot for rookie RB Najee Harris on the Steelers and were looking to grab him in drafts this year, be prepared to pay the premium because he is currently not making it out of the 2nd round of best ball drafts.  He is the first rookie off boards as of now (although that could change with all the buzz building around Travis Etienne) and is being drafted in the same range as guys like Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler.

One of the biggest fallers in best ball drafts right now is Davante Adams.  With the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers returning to Green Bay, Adams is falling into the middle to late 2nd round even though he was the best fantasy WR last season.  Players such as Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are being drafted ahead of him in some leagues, and if you believe Rodgers returns to the Packers, then you can scoop up Adams at a discount at the tail end of round two.

A debate that will surely be had throughout draft season is whether or not Travis Kelce is a first round pick.  So far, the answer has been ‘yes’ as Kelce has yet to make it out of the first round — at least in the best ball drafts I have drafted in.  With how weak the tight end position was last year, Kelce in the first round assures you the best player at the position and one of the premier fantasy producers in the league on a high-powered Kansas City offense. It’s also a bigger advantage in best ball league strategy to lock in that high value at TE as the waiver wire is not available to you during the season to pick up any hot names that emerge down the stretch.

Second-year running backs JK Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Antonio Gibson are flying off the board in the 2nd and 3rd rounds right now.  However, fellow sophomore back James Robinson is dropping in ADP into the 4th and even 5th rounds after the Jaguars drafted rookie Travis Etienne in the draft.  In some drafts the rookie is being drafted ahead of Robinson as there is still uncertainty on who will be the primary ball carrier in Jacksonville.  Another rookie RB who is being targeted in the 6th round range is Trey Sermon of the 49ers.  With the injury history to Raheem Mostert and Kyle Shanahan’s tendencies to use multiple running backs in the offense, Sermon may have significant fantasy value this season and the fantasy community is taking note of it already.

At the WR position, the first rookie off the board has correctly been Bengals first round pick Ja’Marr Chase.  He is consistently going in the 6th round or earlier of drafts with fellow rookies DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle a couple of rounds after him.  2021 F=first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence is being drafted in rounds 10 and 11 along with last year’s first overall selection Joe Burrow.  Both QBs are being drafted ahead of Deshaun Watson, whose future with the Texans and even the NFL are uncertain at the moment.

Stay Tuned — as best ball season continues into the summer months we will see more trends and develop, and more ADPs evolve!