RosterWatch

Fading Running Back Inflation: Damien Harris, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram

Fading Running Back Inflation: Damien Harris Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram
by Alan Seslowsky

Running back has always been the most coveted position in fantasy football. Fantasy players have a long history of taking their workhorse runners very early in drafts. Twenty years ago nearly every team in your league started their draft RB-RB. Around 2014, it was the WRs who dominated the first round. The trend is back to a heavy RB first round, but once you enter the second round, RB prices inflate. ADP shows that fantasy players are taking RBs over some of the elite WRs. “RB inflation,” has been a popular topic, for good reason, this off-season. If you want to fade the price gouging on RBs and get the elite WRS early, there are RBs that may be safer than the market thinks who can be had in the later rounds. Below are a few of the RBs RosterWatch is paying attention to, when we want to fade the RB inflation.

Damien Harris (RB52)

In the past, it has been hard to trust any one New England RB week in and week out. Harris, who was a third-round pick in the real NFL draft in 2019, was a healthy scratch on gamedays for the majority of his rookie season. Things are breaking right for Harris in 2020, though. Starter Sony Michel is recovering from an off-season foot injury and early practice reports on Harris have been very good. The draft cost of Harris is still dirt cheap. He can routinely be rostered in the double-digit rounds without having to fight the room for him. It is entirely possible that Harris is useful for the short term only, but his cost is in line with what we can expect from him. If you want to fade RB inflation; Harris makes for a low-risk, potential short-term solution. 

 

Todd Gurley (RB18)

The Atlanta Falcons signed Todd Gurley as a free agent this offseason to be the lead runner on the team. It is well documented that Gurley’s troublesome knees have slowed his career trajectory. Todd Gurley’s ADP of RB18 is in a tier of other RBs that have obvious flaws. The market may be overreacting to the downside of Gurley, as evident by his recent drop in drafts to the 47th player overall. This makes Gurley a late fourth-round pick according to recent ADP pulled over the last 10 days on sharp bestball sites. With no obvious backup threatening Gurley’s touch share, he is shaping up to be an appealing value for those fading the RB inflation in the first three rounds. Falcons OC Dirk Koetter recently predicted a 15-25 touch-per-game role for Gurley, which bodes well for the team’s perception of his overall health. 

 

Mark Ingram (RB25)

In 2019, Mark Ingram finished as an RB1. His output was inflated by his five receiving TDs, which is highly unlikely to repeat this season. The draft market is understandably excited about Baltimore’s elite rookie RB prospect, JK Dobbins, which is further depressing Ingram’s ADP. Mark Ingram can be drafted as late as the fifth round in drafts and sometimes in the sixth. On RosterWatch podcast #278, guest Justin Boone made a point that Mark Ingram is one of the emotional leaders of this team. Boone thought it is unlikely that the team tosses Ingram to the side in favor of the rookie anytime soon. When Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers joined the podcast, he said that a sixth-round ADP for a player with Ingram’s upside was the most egregious and cockamamie price in 2020 fantasy football drafts. Mark Ingram projects to be the lead running back on one of the best running teams in the NFL. He is an ideal pick, at cost, for those fading the RB inflation in drafts. 

33 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By The Great

    I like Jerrick McKinnon for comeback player of the year at +15,000.
    I like Isiah Simmons for Defense player of the year at + 15,000.
    Devin Singletary is extremely underrated. And the Bills over 8.5 Wins is a lock.
    I got the first pick and im taking McCaffrey. But im extremely worried about Shitwater at QB and his new coach. Im looking to trade out for the right return.
    Will Fuller is really good
    Emanuel Sanders is going to tear it up.
    I think Gurley has a big chip on his shoulder.
    Never draft a Philly Running Back.
    The jaguars are going to win 2 or less games and win their superbowl= Trevor Lawrence.
    Bob Gronkowski is a good player.
    JuJU Smith-Schuster is also very good value.
    Mark Ingram is still going to score ALOT of touchdowns.
    I want Lamar again so bad but Rogers and Brees in the 10th+ rounds is making me wait on QBs.
    Jerry Johnson is going to tilt the field towards Lamb.
    Thielen is going to be in trouble as the main focus of defenses.
    Pollard is good and im worried about some workload split under new coaching for Zeke.
    Kamara burned me last year and i wont let that happen again.
    Finally ill repeat i like Devin Singletary for steal of the draft.

    Best of luck men.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      The Great

      I loved reading that! you are awesome!

    2. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

      Take away from the great
      Never Draft A Doug Petersen RB ( I woulda been happy to have westbrook or McCoy in the day)
      So true,,, I took it too far last year when in the preseason I traded sanders for guice

      FFFFF
      MMMMM
      LLLLL
      !!!!!!

  2. ↓ Post By robert.ambersley@yahoo.com

    All right Alan. Got my team last night. Half point, 10 teams, I drafted at 9. This league has qbs go away early. In order, Mixon, Jacobs, Godwin, A Rob, Mclauren, Metcalf, Fuller, Kerryon, Jared Cook, Matt Ryan, Sony, AP, Herndon, Chargers d, Stafford and Gould. Couldn’t believe I got Godwin after starting with 2 rbs.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      A monster!!!!! Way to go dude!!

    2. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

      AMAZING!

      The chargers D – they’ve lost a lot of players – may wanna stream D

  3. ↓ Post By Pop Rocks

    Check out the PPR cheat sheet. Fournette is under the TE category. Please fix ASAP!!!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Should be fixed

  4. ↓ Post By Kevelinou

    Got offered a trade last night I would be giving away Cook and would receive Chubb and Miller in return

    Any thought?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I’d pass unless you are desperate at WR— which seems unlikely this early in the season

      1. ↓ Post By Kevelinou

        Thanks, it’s what I thought, wasn’t sure if I was missing something

      2. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

        I would take it but only in dynasty

  5. ↓ Post By Pablackbird

    Keeper help in a 0.5ppr. I have Chubb in the 8th and need a 2nd keeper from Dalvin (1st), Goodwin (4th) OT Dak (8th). I will not know my draft slot prior to submitting my keepers. Thanks guys

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I’d probably keep Godwin, maybe Dalvin — very close. Depends on what you think your first few rounds are going to look like with the keepers off the board

  6. ↓ Post By Zeke and destroy

    1 point ppr 12 team league. I have Henry as my keeper in the fourth round. I have the number 3 pick and have Kamara, CEH, Mixon and Adams available. With the situation with Kamara Which way do you lean?

  7. ↓ Post By Zeke and destroy

    1 point ppr 12 team league. I have Henry as my keeper in the fourth round. I have the number 3 pick and have Kamara, CEH, Mixon and Adams available. With the situation with Kamara Which way do you lean?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Take the guy highest on the PPR cheat sheet 🙂

  8. ↓ Post By John Hunsberger

    I might be an idiot but where is the draft cheat sheets at now after the page update . Greatest tool in FF

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      On the downloads page! Click “My account” at the top of the page if you aren’t sure. Make sure you are logged in as PRO first!

  9. ↓ Post By robert.ambersley@yahoo.com

    Yes Baron Im going to switch to eagles D week 1 and drop chargers. I think you’re right. Thanks man.

  10. ↓ Post By Cancop1

    I’ve got both Josh Allen and Drew Brees. Do I hold em both or drop one for a Handcuff like Snell

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I think that’s a hold

  11. ↓ Post By Wipes

    Fournette got dropped when he was cut and is still available to pick up. Should I drop Kareem Hunt and pick up Fournette? 8 team league standard scoring. Have Kamara, Ekeler, D Johnson, Akers too.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yeah, I think so ….

  12. ↓ Post By trent.weeks2010@gmail.com

    10 team 1/2 pt PPR team name Fresh Prince of Helaire, should i drop Damien Harris to pick off Sony Michel?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Maybe / Probably – I’d look at Ozigbo and Shenault too!

      1. ↓ Post By trent.weeks2010@gmail.com

        Thanks Byron!

  13. ↓ Post By rahulkaul641@gmail.com

    I got a trade question.

    I have picks 6 & 8 in my 12 team re-draft (Lots of trading from last year).

    I am being offered the 7th pick for my 19th pick and 54th (5th rounder) pick. I have 3 6th rounders as well as my 3rd and 4th still in place. Should I make the move? I have Devante Parker as a keeper in the 17th round.

  14. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    To move up one spot? That is too much – a RD2 and a RD5- too. much . Offer him a 6th straight up if you’re that interested

  15. ↓ Post By Chief58

    Picked up Ozigbo in the 21st (last) round of my draft. Is he the guy in Jacksonville?

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      sure looking like it, we said we liked him best after JAX camp.

  16. ↓ Post By blu_cj7@yahoo.com

    Was offered Anthony Miller and Sony Michel for my AJ Green, dobI take it? .5 ppr. My Wrs are currently Golladay , Kupp, Green, Fuller, TY Hilton, and Ruggs. RBs are Hellaire, Jones, Fournette, Mack, and Kerryon Johnson. Also do I need to pick up Ozigbo off waivers?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Blu:

      Green likely better players than Miller projecting for the first 4 weeks. Green’s injury risk is the scary part. I’d try to wait to see if Green has a monster game THEN sell. You might be able to get more. If you want to cash out now, that deal feels like a “par” or a single. Nothing wrong with getting on base. But the triple could come if you wait (or a strike out)

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